Effects of climate change - Wikipedia

The effects of climate change span the physical environment, ecosystems and human societies. They also include the economic and social changes which stem ... Effectsofclimatechange FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia Jumptonavigation Jumptosearch Describestheeffectscreatedbyglobalwarming IthasbeensuggestedthatRegionaleffectsofclimatechangebemergedintothisarticle.(Discuss)ProposedsinceOctober2021. Foreffectsofchangesinclimatepriortothecurrentperiodofglobalwarming,seeHistoricalclimatology. Theprimarycauses[1]andthewide-rangingeffects[2][3]ofglobalwarmingandresultingclimatechange.Someeffectsconstitutefeedbackmechanismsthatintensifyclimatechangeandmoveittowardclimatetippingpoints.[4] Visibleeffectsofclimatechange:sealevelriseattheMarshallIslands,reachingtheedgeofavillage(fromthedocumentaryOneWord) Theeffectsofclimatechangespanthephysicalenvironment,ecosystemsandhumansocieties.Theyalsoincludetheeconomicandsocialchangeswhichstemfromlivinginawarmerworld.Human-causedclimatechangeisoneofthethreatstosustainability.[5][6] Manyphysicalimpactsofclimatechangearealreadyvisible,includingextremeweatherevents,glacierretreat,[7]changesinthetimingofseasonalevents(e.g.,earlierfloweringofplants),[8]sealevelrise,anddeclinesinArcticseaice.[9]Theoceanhastakenupbetween20%and30%ofhuman-inducedatmosphericcarbondioxidesincethe1980s,leadingtooceanacidification.[10]Theoceanisalsowarmingandsince1970hasabsorbedmorethan90%oftheexcessheatintheclimatesystem.[10] Climatechangehasalreadyimpactedecosystemsandhumans.[11]Incombinationwithclimatevariability,itmakesfoodinsecurityworseinmanyplaces[12]andputspressureonfreshwatersupply.This,incombinationwithextremeweatherevents,leadstonegativeeffectsonhumanhealth.Climatechangehasalsocontributedtodesertificationandlanddegradationinmanyregionsoftheworld.[13]Thishasimplicationsforlivelihoodsasmanypeoplearedependentonlandforfood,feed,fibre,timberandenergy.[14]Risingtemperatures,changingprecipitationpatternsandtheincreaseinextremeeventsthreatendevelopmentbecauseofnegativeeffectsoneconomicgrowthindevelopingcountries.[12]Climatechangealreadycontributestomigrationinpartsoftheworld.[15] Thefutureimpactofclimatechangedependsontheextenttowhichnationsimplementpreventionefforts,reducegreenhousegasemissions,andadapttounavoidableclimatechangeeffects.[16][17]Muchofthepolicydebateconcerningclimatechangemitigationhasbeenframedbyprojectionsforthetwenty-firstcentury.Thefocusonalimitedtimewindowobscuressomeoftheproblemsassociatedwithclimatechange.Policydecisionsmadeinthenextfewdecadeswillhaveprofoundimpactsontheglobalclimate,ecosystemsandhumansocieties,notjustforthiscentury,butforthenextmillennia,asnear-termclimatechangepoliciessignificantlyaffectlong-termclimatechangeimpacts.[16][18][19] Stringentmitigationpoliciesmightbeabletolimitglobalwarming(in2100)toaround2 °Corbelow,relativetopre-industriallevels.[20][21]Withoutmitigation,increasedenergydemandandtheextensiveuseoffossilfuels[22]mayleadtoglobalwarmingofaround4 °C.[23][24]Withhighermagnitudesofglobalwarming,societiesandecosystemswilllikelyencounterlimitstohowmuchtheycanadapt.[25] Contents 1Observedandfuturewarming 1.1Emissionscenarios 1.2Warmingprojections 1.3WarmingincontextofEarth'spast 2Physicalimpacts 2.1Effectsonweather 2.1.1Precipitation 2.1.2Temperatures 2.1.3Heatwaves 2.1.4Coldwaves 2.1.5Tropicalcyclones 2.2Onland 2.2.1Flooding 2.2.2Droughts 2.2.3Wildfires 2.3Cryosphere 2.4Oceans 2.4.1SeaIce 2.4.2Oxygendepletion 2.4.3Oceanheatuptake 2.4.4Sealevelrise 3Wildlifeandnature 3.1Terrestrialandwetlandsystems 3.2Oceanecosystems 4Regionaleffects 5Onhumans 5.1Foodsecurity 5.1.1Foodavailability 5.1.1.1Otheraspectsoffoodsecurity 5.2Watersecurity 5.3Health 5.3.1Projections 5.3.2Onmentalhealth 5.4Migration 5.4.1Slowonset 5.4.2Suddenonset 5.5Conflict 5.6Economicimpact 5.7Possibilityofcollapseandextinction 6Abruptorirreversiblechanges 6.1Amazonrainforest 6.2GreenlandandWestAntarcticIcesheets 6.3AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation 6.4Irreversiblechange 6.4.1WarmingcommitmenttoCO2concentrations. 6.4.2Irreversibleimpacts 7Seealso 8Citations 9References 10Furtherreading 11Externallinks Observedandfuturewarming Globalsurfacetemperaturereconstructionoverthelastmillenniausingproxydatafromtreerings,corals,andicecoresinblue.[26]Observationaldataisfrom1880to2019. Globalwarmingreferstothelong-termriseintheaveragetemperatureoftheEarth'sclimatesystem.Itisamajoraspectofclimatechange,andhasbeendemonstratedbytheinstrumentaltemperaturerecordwhichshowsglobalwarmingofaround1 °Csincethepre-industrialperiod,[27]althoughthebulkofthis(0.9 °C)hasoccurredsince1970.[28]Awidevarietyoftemperatureproxiestogetherprovethatthe20thcenturywasthehottestrecordedinthelast2,000years.Comparedtoclimatevariabilityinthepast,currentwarmingisalsomoregloballycoherent,affecting98%oftheplanet.[26][29]Theimpactontheenvironment,ecosystems,theanimalkingdom,societyandhumanitydependsonhowmuchmoretheEarthwarms.[30] TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)FifthAssessmentReportconcluded,"Itisextremelylikelythathumaninfluencehasbeenthedominantcauseoftheobservedwarmingsincethemid-20thcentury."[31]ThishasbeenbroughtaboutprimarilythroughtheburningoffossilfuelswhichhasledtoasignificantincreaseintheconcentrationofGHGsintheatmosphere.[32] Emissionscenarios GlobalCO2emissionsandprobabilistictemperatureoutcomesofdifferentpolicies. Individualconsumers,corporatedecisionmakers,thefossilfuelindustries,governmentresponsesandtheextenttowhichdifferentcountriesagreetocooperateallhaveaprofoundimpactonhowmuchgreenhousegasestheworldsemits.Asthecrisisandmodellingtechniqueshaveevolved,theIPCCandotherclimatescientistshavetriedanumberofdifferenttoolstoestimatelikelygreenhousegasemissionsinthefuture. RepresentativeConcentrationPathways(RCPs)werebasedonpossibledifferencesinradiativeforcingoccurringinthenext100yearsbutdonotincludesocioeconomic"narratives"togoalongsidethem.[33]Anothergroupofclimatescientists,economistsandenergysystemmodellerstookadifferentapproachknownasSharedSocioeconomicPathways(SSPs);thisisbasedonhowsocioeconomicfactorssuchaspopulation,economicgrowth,education,urbanisationandtherateoftechnologicaldevelopmentmightchangeoverthenextcentury.TheSSPsdescribefivedifferenttrajectorieswhichdescribefutureclimaticdevelopmentsintheabsenceofnewenvironmentalpoliciesbeyondthoseinplacetoday.Theyalsoexploretheimplicationsofdifferentclimatechangemitigationscenarios.[34] Warmingprojections CMIP5averageofclimatemodelprojectionsfor2081–2100relativeto1986–2005,underlowandhighemissionscenarios Projectedtemperatureandsea-levelriserelativetothe2000–2019meanforRCPclimatechangescenariosupto2500.[35][36] Therangeintemperatureprojectionspartlyreflectsthechoiceofemissionsscenario,andthedegreeof"climatesensitivity".[37]Theprojectedmagnitudeofwarmingby2100iscloselyrelatedtothelevelofcumulativeemissionsoverthe21stcentury(i.e.totalemissionsbetween2000and2100).[38]Thehigherthecumulativeemissionsoverthistimeperiod,thegreaterthelevelofwarmingisprojectedtooccur.[38]ClimatesensitivityreflectsuncertaintyintheresponseoftheclimatesystemtopastandfutureGHGemissions.[37]Higherestimatesofclimatesensitivityleadtogreaterprojectedwarming,whilelowerestimatesleadtolessprojectedwarming.[39] TheIPCC'sFifthReport,statesthatrelativetotheaveragefromyear1850to1900,globalsurfacetemperaturechangebytheendofthe21stcenturyislikelytoexceed1.5 °Candmaywellexceed2 °CforallRCPscenariosexceptRCP2.6.Itislikelytoexceed2 °CforRCP6.0andRCP8.5,andmorelikelythannottoexceed2 °CforRCP4.5.Thepathwaywiththehighestgreenhousegasemissions,RCP8.5,willleadtoatemperatureincreaseofabout4.3˚Cby2100.[40]Warmingwillcontinuebeyond2100underallRCPscenariosexceptRCP2.6.[41]Evenifemissionsweredrasticallyreducedovernight,thewarmingprocessisirreversiblebecauseCO2takeshundredsofyearstobreakdown,andglobaltemperatureswillremainclosetotheirhighestlevelforatleastthenext1,000years.[42][43] Mitigationpoliciescurrentlyinplacewillresultinabout2.9 °Cwarmingabovepre-industriallevels.Ifallunconditionalpledgesandtargetsalreadymadebygovernmentswillbeachievedthetemperaturewillriseby2.4 °C.Ifallthe131countriesthatactuallyadoptedoronlyconsidertoadoptnet–zerotargetwillachieveitthetemperaturewillriseby2.0 °C.However,ifcurrentplansarenotactuallyimplemented,globalwarmingisexpectedtoreach4.1 °Cto4.8 °Cby2100.Thereisasubstantialgapbetweennationalplansandcommitmentsandactualactionssofartakenbygovernmentsaroundtheworld.[44] AccordingtotheWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationreportfrom2021,thereisa44%chancethattheglobaltemperaturewilltemporarilypassthe1.5limitalreadyintheyears2021–2026.[45] WarmingincontextofEarth'spast Oneofthemethodsscientistsusetopredicttheeffectsofhuman-causedclimatechange,istoinvestigatepastnaturalchangesinclimate.[46]Scientistshaveusedvarious"proxy"datatoassesschangesinEarth'spastclimateorpaleoclimate.[47]Sourcesofproxydataincludehistoricalrecordssuchastreerings,icecores,corals,andoceanandlakesediments.[47]Thedatashowsthatrecentwarminghassurpassedanythinginthelast2,000years.[48] Bytheendofthe21stcentury,temperaturesmayincreasetoalevelnotexperiencedsincethemid-Pliocene,around3millionyearsago.[49]Atthattime,meanglobaltemperatureswereabout2–4 °Cwarmerthanpre-industrialtemperatures,andtheglobalmeansealevelwasupto25metershigherthanitistoday.[50] Physicalimpacts Mainarticle:Physicalimpactsofclimatechange Changesinclimateindicatorsoverseveraldecades.Eachofthedifferentcoloredlinesineachpanelrepresentsanindependentlyanalyzedsetofdata.Thedatacomefrommanydifferenttechnologiesincludingweatherstations,satellites,weatherballoons,shipsandbuoys.[51] Abroadrangeofevidenceshowsthattheclimatesystemhaswarmed.[52]Evidenceofglobalwarmingisshowninthegraphs(belowright)fromtheUSNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA).Someofthegraphsshowapositivetrend,e.g.,increasingtemperatureoverlandandtheocean,andsealevelrise.Othergraphsshowanegativetrend,suchasdecreasedsnowcoverintheNorthernHemisphere,anddecliningArcticseaice,bothofwhichareindicativeofglobalwarming.Evidenceofwarmingisalsoapparentinliving(biological)systemssuchaschangesindistributionoffloraandfaunatowardsthepoles.[53] Human-inducedwarmingcouldleadtolarge-scale,abruptand/orirreversiblechangesinphysicalsystems.[54][55]Anexampleofthisisthemeltingoficesheets,whichcontributestosealevelriseandwillcontinueforthousandsofyears.[56]Theprobabilityofwarminghavingunforeseenconsequencesincreaseswiththerate,magnitude,anddurationofclimatechange.[57] Effectsonweather Seealso:ExtremeweatherandTropicalcyclone§ Globalwarming Globalwarmingleadstoanincreaseinextremeweathereventssuchasheatwaves,droughts,cyclones,blizzardsandrainstorms.[58]Sucheventswillcontinuetooccurmoreoftenandwithgreaterintensity.[59]Scientistshavenotonlydeterminedthatclimatechangeisresponsiblefortrendsinweatherpatterns,someindividualextremeweathereventshavealsodirectlybeattributedtoclimatechange.[60] TheIPCCSixthAssessmentReportsummarizedtheimpactofwarmingonsometypesofextremeweatherasfollows:[61] Increaseinfrequencyandintensityofextremeeventswithglobalwarming Nameofevent Climatein1850-1900 1 °Cwarming 1.5 °Cwarming 2 °Cwarming 4 °Cwarming 1in10yearsheatwave Normal 2.8timesmoreoften,1.2 °Chotter 4.1timesmoreoften,1.9 °Chotter 5.6timesmoreoften,2.6 °Chotter 9.4timesmoreoften,5.1 °Chotter 1in50yearsheatwave Normal 4.8timesmoreoften,1.2 °Chotter 8.6timesmoreoften,2.0 °Chotter 13.9timesmoreoften,2.7 °Chotter 39.2timesmoreoften,5.3 °Chotter 1in10yearsheavyprecipitationevent Normal 1.3timesmoreoften,6.7%wetter 1.5timesmoreoften,10.5%wetter 1.7timesmoreoften,14.0%wetter 2.7timesmoreoften,30.2%wetter 1in10yearsdrought Normal 1.7timesmoreoften,0.3sddrier 2.0timesmoreoften,0.5sddrier 2.4timesmoreoften,0.6sddrier 4.1timesmoreoften,1.0sddrier Precipitation TheIPCCSixthAssessmentReport(2021)projectsprogressivelylargeincreasesinboththefrequency(horizontalbars)andintensity(verticalbars)ofextremeweatherevents,forincreasingdegreesofglobalwarming.[61] Highertemperaturesleadtoincreasedevaporationandsurfacedrying.Astheairwarms,itswater-holdingcapacityalsoincreases,particularlyovertheoceans.Ingeneraltheaircanholdabout7%moremoistureforevery1 °Coftemperaturerise.[37]Inthetropics,there'smorethana10%increaseinprecipitationfora1 °Cincreaseintemperature.[62]Changeshavealreadybeenobservedintheamount,intensity,frequency,andtypeofprecipitation.Widespreadincreasesinheavyprecipitationhaveoccurredeveninplaceswheretotalrainamountshavedecreased.[63] Projectionsoffuturechangesinprecipitationshowoverallincreasesintheglobalaverage,butwithsubstantialshiftsinwhereandhowprecipitationfalls.[37]Projectionssuggestareductioninrainfallinthesubtropics,andanincreaseinprecipitationinsubpolarlatitudesandsomeequatorialregions.Inotherwords,regionswhicharedryatpresentwillingeneralbecomeevendrier,whileregionsthatarecurrentlywetwillingeneralbecomeevenwetter.[64]Althoughincreasedrainfallwillnotoccureverywhere,modelssuggestmostoftheworldwillhavea16–24%increaseinheavyprecipitationintensityby2100.[65] Temperatures Asdescribedinthefirstsection,globaltemperatureshaverisenby1 °Candareexpectedtorisefurtherinthefuture.[27][41]Overmostlandareassincethe1950s,itisverylikelythatatalltimesofyearbothdaysandnightshavebecomewarmerduetohumanactivities.[66]Night-timetemperatureshaveincreasedafasterratethandaytimetemperatures.[67]IntheU.S.since1999,twowarmweatherrecordshavebeensetorbrokenforeverycoldone.[68][69] Futureclimatechangewillincludemoreveryhotdaysandfewerverycolddays.[66]Thefrequency,lengthandintensityofheatwaveswillverylikelyincreaseovermostlandareas.[66]HighergrowthinanthropogenicGHGemissionswouldcausemorefrequentandseveretemperatureextremes.[70] Heatwaves Globalwarmingbooststheprobabilityofextremeweathereventssuchasheatwaves[71][72]wherethedailymaximumtemperatureexceedstheaveragemaximumtemperatureby5 °C(9 °F)formorethanfiveconsecutivedays.[73] Inthelast30–40years,heatwaveswithhighhumidityhavebecomemorefrequentandsevere.Extremelyhotnightshavedoubledinfrequency.Theareainwhichextremelyhotsummersareobservedhasincreased50–100fold.Thesechangesarenotexplainedbynaturalvariability,andareattributedbyclimatescientiststotheinfluenceofanthropogenicclimatechange.Heatwaveswithhighhumidityposeabigrisktohumanhealthwhileheatwaveswithlowhumidityleadtodryconditionsthatincreasewildfires.Themortalityfromextremeheatislargerthanthemortalityfromhurricanes,lightning,tornadoes,floods,andearthquakestogether.[74] Coldwaves Insomecases,climatechangemayalsoleadtomorefrequentextremelycoldwinterweatheracrosspartsofAsiaandNorthAmerica.[75][76][additionalcitation(s)needed]However,beforethestudy,someresearchersstatedthatwarmingwillmakesucheventslesslikely.Conclusionsthatlinkclimatechangetocoldwavesareconsideredtostillbehighlycontroversial.[77][additionalcitation(s)needed]TheJRCPESETAIVprojectconcludedin2020thatoverallclimatechangewillresultinadeclineintheintensityandfrequencyofextremecoldspells,withmilderwintersreducingfatalitiesfromextremecold,[78][additionalcitation(s)needed]evenifindividualcoldextremeweathermaysometimesbecausedbychangesduetoclimatechangeandpossiblyevenbecomemorefrequentinsomeregions. Tropicalcyclones Globalwarmingnotonlycauseschangesintropicalcyclones,itmayalsomakesomeimpactsfromthemworseviasealevelrise.Theintensityoftropicalcyclones(hurricanes,typhoons,etc.)isprojectedtoincreaseglobally,withtheproportionofCategory4and5tropicalcyclonesincreasing.Furthermore,therateofrainfallisprojectedtoincrease,buttrendsinthefuturefrequencyonaglobalscalearenotyetclear.[79][80]Changesintropicalcycloneswillprobablyvarybyregion.[79] Onland Furtherinformation:SpecialReportonClimateChangeandLand Intheyear2019theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeissuedaSpecialReportonClimateChangeandLand.Themainstatementsofthereportinclude: Humansaffect70%oftheicefreeland,thatplayakeyroleinsupplyingtheneedsofhumansandintheclimatesystem. TheglobalfoodsupplyhaveraisedwhatincreasedGHGemission,but25%–30%ofthefoodislost,2billionadultssufferfrombeingoverweightwhile821millionpeoplesufferfromhunger. Therateofsoilerosionis10–20timeshigherthantherateofsoilaccumulationinagriculturalareasthatuseno-tillfarming.Inareaswithtillingitis100timeshigher.ClimateChangeincreaseslanddegradationanddesertification. Intheyears1960–2013theareaofdrylandsindrought,increasedby1%peryear. Intheyear2015around500millionpeoplelivedinareasthatwasimpactedbydesertificationintheyears1980s–2000s. Peoplewholiveintheareasaffectedbylanddegradationanddesertificationare"increasinglynegativelyaffectedbyclimatechange". IPCCSRCCL2019,pp. 7,8IPCCSRCCLSummaryforPolicymakers2019,p. 7,8harvnberror:notarget:CITEREFIPCC_SRCCL_Summary_for_Policymakers2019(help) Climatechangewillalsocausesoilstowarm.Inturn,thiscouldcausethesoilmicrobepopulationsizetodramaticallyincrease40–150%.Warmerconditionswouldfavorgrowthofcertainbacteriaspecies,shiftingthebacterialcommunitycomposition.Elevatedcarbondioxidewouldincreasethegrowthratesofplantsandsoilmicrobes,slowingthesoilcarboncycleandfavoringoligotrophs,whichareslower-growingandmoreresourceefficientthancopiotrophs.[81] Flooding Hightidesfloodingisincreasingduetosealevelrise,landsubsidence,andthelossofnaturalbarriers.[82] Warmerairholdsmorewatervapor.Whenthisturnstorain,ittendstocomeinheavydownpourspotentiallyleadingtomorefloods.A2017studyfoundthatpeakprecipitationisincreasingbetween5and10%foreveryonedegreeCelsiusincrease.[83]IntheUnitedStatesandmanyotherpartsoftheworldtherehasbeenamarkedincreaseinintenserainfalleventswhichhaveresultedinmoresevereflooding.[84]Estimatesofthenumberofpeopleatriskofcoastalfloodingfromclimate-drivensea-levelrisevariesfrom190million,[85]to300millionoreven640millioninaworst-casescenariorelatedtotheinstabilityoftheAntarcticicesheet.[86][87]theGreenlandicesheetisestimatedtohavereachedapointofnoreturn,continuingtomeltevenifwarmingstopped.Overtimethatwouldsubmergemanyoftheworld'scoastalcitiesincludinglow-lyingislands,especiallycombinedwithstormsurgesandhightides.[88] Droughts Furtherinformation:Desertification Climatechangeaffectsmultiplefactorsassociatedwithdroughts,suchashowmuchrainfallsandhowfasttherainevaporatesagain.Itissettoincreasetheseverityandfrequencyofdroughtsaroundmuchoftheworld.[89]Duetolimitationsonhowmuchdataisavailableaboutdroughtinthepast,itisoftenimpossibletoconfidentlyattributedroughtstohuman-inducedclimatechange.Someareashowever,suchastheMediterraneanandCalifornia,alreadyshowaclearhumansignature.[90]Theirimpactsareaggravatedbecauseofincreasedwaterdemand,populationgrowth,urbanexpansion,andenvironmentalprotectioneffortsinmanyareas.[91] Wildfires AverageU.S.acreageburnedannuallybywildfireshasalmosttripledinthreedecades.[92] Warmanddrytemperaturesdrivenbyclimatechangeincreasethechanceofwildfires.[93]Prolongedperiodsofwarmertemperaturestypicallycausesoilandunderbrushtobedrierforlongerperiods,increasingtheriskofwildfires.Hot,dryconditionsincreasethelikelihoodthatwildfireswillbemoreintenseandburnforlongeroncetheystart.[94]InCalifornia,summerairtemperaturehaveincreasedbyover3.5 °Fsuchthatthefireseasonhaslengthenedby75daysoverpreviousdecades.Asaresult,sincethe1980s,boththesizeandferocityoffiresinCaliforniahaveincreased.Sincethe1970s,thesizeoftheareaburnedhasincreasedfivefold.[95] InAustralia,theannualnumberofhotdays(above35 °C)andveryhotdays(above40 °C)hasincreasedsignificantlyinmanyareasofthecountrysince1950.Thecountryhasalwayshadbushfiresbutin2019,theextentandferocityofthesefiresincreaseddramatically.[96]ForthefirsttimecatastrophicbushfireconditionsweredeclaredforGreaterSydney.NewSouthWalesandQueenslanddeclaredastateofemergencybutfireswerealsoburninginSouthAustraliaandWesternAustralia.[97] Cryosphere Seealso:Retreatofglacierssince1850 Earthlost28trilliontonnesoficebetween1994and2017,withmeltinggroundedice(icesheetsandglaciers)raisingtheglobalsealevelby34.6 ±3.1 mm.[98]Therateoficelosshasrisenby57%sincethe1990s−from0.8to1.2trilliontonnesperyear.[98] Amapthatshowsiceconcentrationon16September2012,alongwiththeextentofthepreviousrecordlow(yellowline)andthemid-Septembermedianextent(blackline)settinganewrecordlowthatwas18percentsmallerthanthepreviousrecordandnearly50percentsmallerthanthelong-term(1979–2000)average. Thecryosphereismadeupofthosepartsoftheplanetwhicharesocold,theyarefrozenandcoveredbysnoworice.ThisincludesiceandsnowonlandsuchasthecontinentalicesheetsinGreenlandandAntarctica,aswellasglaciersandareasofsnowandpermafrost;andicefoundonwaterincludingfrozenpartsoftheocean,suchasthewaterssurroundingAntarcticaandtheArctic.[99]Thecryosphere,especiallythepolarregions,isextremelysensitivetochangesinglobalclimate.[100] TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeissuedaSpecialReportontheOceanandCryosphereinaChangingClimate.Accordingtothereportclimatechangecausedamassivemeltingofglaciers,icesheets,snowandpermafrostwithgenerallynegativeeffectsonecosystemsandhumans.Indigenousknowledgehelpedtoadapttothoseeffects.[101] Arcticseaicebegantodeclineatthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturybuttherateisaccelerating.Since1979,satelliterecordsindicatethedeclineinsummerseaicecoveragehasbeenabout13%perdecade.[102][103]Thethicknessofseaicehasalsodecreasedby66%or2.0moverthelastsixdecadeswithashiftfrompermanenticetolargelyseasonalicecover.[104]Whileice-freesummersareexpectedtoberareat1.5 °Cdegreesofwarming,theyaresettooccuratleastonceeverydecadeatawarminglevelof2.0°C.[105] Sincethebeginningofthetwentiethcentury,therehasalsobeenawidespreadretreatofalpineglaciers,[106]andsnowcoverintheNorthernHemisphere.[107]Duringthe21stcentury,glaciersandsnowcoverareprojectedtocontinuetheirretreatinalmostallregions.[108]ThemeltingoftheGreenlandandWestAntarcticicesheetswillcontinuetocontributetosealevelriseoverlongtime-scales.[109] Oceans Mainarticle:Effectsofclimatechangeonoceans Globaloceanheatcontentfrom1955to2019 Globalwarmingisprojectedtohaveanumberofeffectsontheoceans.Ongoingeffectsincluderisingsealevelsduetothermalexpansionandmeltingofglaciersandicesheets,andwarmingoftheoceansurface,leadingtoincreasedtemperaturestratification.[110]Otherpossibleeffectsincludelarge-scalechangesinoceancirculation.Theoceansalsoserveasasinkforcarbondioxide,takingupmuchthatwouldotherwiseremainintheatmosphere,butincreasedlevelsofCO2haveledtooceanacidification.Furthermore,asthetemperatureoftheoceansincreases,theybecomelessabletoabsorbexcessCO2.Theoceanshavealsoactedasasinkinabsorbingextraheatfromtheatmosphere.[111]: 4  AccordingtoaSpecialReportontheOceanandCryosphereinaChangingClimatepublishedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,climatechangehasdifferentimpactsontheoceans,includinganincreaseinmarineheatwaves,shiftinspeciesdistribution,oceandeoxygenation.[101] Thedeclineinmixingoftheoceanlayerspilesupwarmwaternearthesurfacewhilereducingcold,deepwatercirculation.Thereducedupanddownmixingenhancedglobalwarming.Furthermore,energyavailablefortropicalcyclonesandotherstormsisexpectedtoincrease,nutrientsforfishintheupperoceanlayersaresettodecrease,aswellasthecapacityoftheoceanstostorecarbon.[112] SeaIce Seaicereflects50%to70%oftheincomingsolarradiation,while6%oftheincomingsolarengeryisreflectedbytheocean.Withlesssolarenergy,theseaiceabsorbsandholdsthesurfacecolder,whichcanbeapositivefeedbacktowardclimatechange.[113] Oxygendepletion Mainarticle:Oceandeoxygenation Warmerwatercannotcontainasmuchoxygenascoldwater,soheatingisexpectedtoleadtolessoxygenintheocean.Otherprocessesalsoplayarole:stratificationmayleadtoincreasesinrespirationratesoforganicmatter,furtherdecreasingoxygencontent.Theoceanhasalreadylostoxygen,throughouttheentirewatercolumnandoxygenminimumzonesareexpandingworldwide.[110]Thishasadverseconsequencesforoceanlife.[114][115] Oceanheatuptake Oceanshavetakenupover90%oftheexcessheataccumulatedonEarthduetoglobalwarming.[116]Thewarmingratevarieswithdepth:atadepthofathousandmetresthewarmingoccursatarateofalmost0.4°Cpercentury(datafrom1981to2019),whereasthewarmingrateattwokilometresdepthisonlyhalf.[117]TheincreaseinoceanheatcontentismuchlargerthananyotherstoreofenergyintheEarth'sheatbalanceandaccountsformorethan90%oftheincreaseinheatcontentoftheEarthsystem,andhasacceleratedinthe1993–2017periodcomparedto1969–1993.[118]In2019apaperpublishedinthejournalSciencefoundtheoceansareheating40%fasterthantheIPCCpredictedjustfiveyearsbefore.[119][120] Aswellashavingeffectsonecosystems(e.g.bymeltingseaiceaffectingalgaethatgrowonitsunderside),warmingreducestheocean'sabilitytoabsorbCO2.[121]Itislikelythattheoceanswarmedfasterbetween1993and2017comparedtotheperiodstartingin1969.[122] Sealevelrise Mainarticle:Sealevelrise Historicalsealevelreconstructionandprojectionsupto2100publishedinJanuary2017bytheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram TheIPCC'sSpecialReportontheOceanandCryosphereconcludedthatglobalmeansealevelroseby0.16metresbetween1901and2016.[123]Therateofsealevelrisesincetheindustrialrevolutioninthe19thcenturyhasbeenlargerthantherateduringtheprevioustwothousandyears.[124] Globalsealevelriseisaccelerating,rising2.5timesfasterbetween2006and2016thanitdidduringthe20thcentury.[125][126]Twomainfactorscontributetotherise.Thefirstisthermalexpansion:asoceanwaterwarms,itexpands.Thesecondisfromthemeltingofland-basediceinglaciersandicesheetsduetoglobalwarming.[127]Priorto2007,thermalexpansionwasthelargestcomponentintheseprojections,contributing70–75%ofsealevelrise.[128]Astheimpactofglobalwarminghasaccelerated,meltingfromglaciersandicesheetshasbecomethemaincontributor.[129] Evenifemissionofgreenhousegasesstopsovernight,sealevelrisewillcontinueforcenturiestocome.[130]In2015,astudybyProfessorJamesHansenofColumbiaUniversityand16otherclimatescientistssaidasealevelriseofthreemetrescouldbearealitybytheendofthecentury.[131]AnotherstudybyscientistsattheRoyalNetherlandsMeteorologicalInstitutein2017usingupdatedprojectionsofAntarcticmasslossandarevisedstatisticalmethodalsoconcludedthat,althoughitwasalowprobability,athree-metrerisewaspossible.[132]Risingsealevelswillputhundredsofmillionsofpeopleatriskinlow-lyingcoastalareasincountriessuchasChina,Bangladesh,IndiaandVietnam.[133] Wildlifeandnature AvastarrayofphysicalandbiologicalsystemsacrosstheEartharebeingaffectedbyhuman-inducedglobalwarming.[134]Mainarticle:Climatechangeandecosystems Seealso:Extinctionriskfromclimatechange Recentwarminghasstronglyaffectednaturalbiologicalsystems.[53]Speciesworldwidearemovingpolewardtocolderareas.Onland,speciesmovetohigherelevations,whereasmarinespeciesfindcolderwateratgreaterdepths.[135]Ofthedriverswiththebiggestglobalimpactonnature,climatechangeranksthirdoverthefivedecadesbefore2020,withonlychangeinlanduseandseause,anddirectexploitationoforganismshavingagreaterimpact.[136] Theimpactsofclimatechangeinnatureandnature'scontributionstohumansareprojectedtobecomemorepronouncedinthenextfewdecades.[137]Examplesofclimaticdisruptionsincludefire,drought,pestinfestation,invasionofspecies,storms,andcoralbleachingevents.Thestressescausedbyclimatechange,addedtootherstressesonecologicalsystems(e.g.landconversion,landdegradation,harvesting,andpollution),threatensubstantialdamagetoorcompletelossofsomeuniqueecosystems,andextinctionofsomecriticallyendangeredspecies.[138][139]Keyinteractionsbetweenspecieswithinecosystemsareoftendisruptedbecausespeciesfromonelocationdonotmovetocolderhabitatsatthesamerate,givingrisetorapidchangesinthefunctioningoftheecosystem.[135] TheArcticisheatinguptwiceasfastastheglobalmean.Seasareontracktoriseonetofourfeethigherby2100,threateningcoastalhabitats.[140] Terrestrialandwetlandsystems Furtherinformation:EffectsofclimatechangeonterrestrialanimalsandEffectsofclimatechangeonplantbiodiversity Climatechangehasbeenestimatedtobeamajordriverofbiodiversitylossincoolconiferforests,savannas,mediterranean-climatesystems,tropicalforests,andtheArctictundra.[141]Inotherecosystems,land-usechangemaybeastrongerdriverofbiodiversityloss,atleastinthenear-term.[141]Beyondtheyear2050,climatechangemaybethemajordriverforbiodiversitylossglobally.[141]Climatechangeinteractswithotherpressuressuchashabitatmodification,pollutionandinvasivespecies.Interactingwiththesepressures,climatechangeincreasesextinctionriskforalargefractionofterrestrialandfreshwaterspecies.[142]Between1%and50%ofspeciesindifferentgroupswereassessedtobeatsubstantiallyhigherriskofextinctionduetoclimatechange.[143] Oceanecosystems Seealso:Effectsofclimatechangeonmarinemammals ApartoftheGreatBarrierReefinAustraliain2016afteracoralbleachingevent Warmwatercoralreefsareverysensitivetoglobalwarmingandoceanacidification.Coralreefsprovideahabitatforthousandsofspeciesandecosystemservicessuchascoastalprotectionandfood.Theresilienceofreefscanbeimprovedbycurbinglocalpollutionandoverfishing,but70–90%oftoday'swarmwatercoralreefswilldisappearevenifwarmingiskeptto1.5 °C.[144]Coralreefsarenottheonlyframeworkorganisms,organismsthatbuildphysicalstructuresthatformhabitatsforotherseacreatures,affectedbyclimatechange:mangrovesandseagrassareconsideredtobeatmoderateriskforlowerlevelsofglobalwarmingaccordingtoaliteratureassessmentintheSpecialReportontheOceanandCryosphereinaChangingClimate.[145]Marineheatwaveshaveseenanincreasedfrequencyandhavewidespreadimpactsonlifeintheoceans,suchasmassdyingevents.[146]Harmfulalgaebloomshaveincreasedinresponsetowarmingwaters,oceandeoxygenationandeutrophication.[147]Betweenone-quarterandone-thirdofourfossilfuelemissionsareconsumedbytheearth'soceansandarenow30percentmoreacidicthantheywereinpre-industrialtimes.Thisacidificationposesaseriousthreattoaquaticlife,particularlycreaturessuchasoysters,clams,andcoralwithcalcifiedshellsorskeletons.[140] Regionaleffects Mainarticle:Regionaleffectsofclimatechange Averageglobaltemperaturesfrom2010to2019comparedtoabaselineaveragefrom1951to1978.Source:NASA. Regionaleffectsofglobalwarmingvaryinnature.Somearetheresultofageneralisedglobalchange,suchasrisingtemperature,resultinginlocaleffects,suchasmeltingice.Inothercases,achangemayberelatedtoachangeinaparticularoceancurrentorweathersystem.Insuchcases,theregionaleffectmaybedisproportionateandwillnotnecessarilyfollowtheglobaltrend. Therearethreemajorwaysinwhichglobalwarmingwillmakechangestoregionalclimate:meltingorformingice,changingthehydrologicalcycle(ofevaporationandprecipitation)andchangingcurrentsintheoceansandairflowsintheatmosphere.Thecoastcanalsobeconsideredaregion,andwillsuffersevereimpactsfromsealevelrise. TheArctic,Africa,smallislands,AsianmegadeltasandtheMiddleEastareregionsthatarelikelytobeespeciallyaffectedbyclimatechange.[148][149]Low-latitude,less-developedregionsareatmostriskofexperiencingnegativeimpactsduetoclimatechange.[150]Developedcountriesarealsovulnerabletoclimatechange.Forexample,developedcountrieswillbenegativelyaffectedbyincreasesintheseverityandfrequencyofsomeextremeweatherevents,suchasheatwaves.[151]In2021,observersnotedthatclimatechangeisnowobviouslyaproblemtorichcountriesduetoimmediateissuesofclimatechangeexacerbatednaturaldisasters.[152][153] Projectionsofclimatechangesattheregionalscaledonotholdashighalevelofscientificconfidenceasprojectionsmadeattheglobalscale.[154]Itis,however,expectedthatfuturewarmingwillfollowasimilargeographicalpatterntothatseenalready,withthegreatestwarmingoverlandandhighnorthernlatitudes,andleastovertheSouthernOceanandpartsoftheNorthAtlanticOcean.[155]Landareaswarmfasterthanocean,andthisfeatureisevenstrongerforextremetemperatures.Forhotextremes,regionswiththemostwarmingincludeCentralandSouthernEuropeandWesternandCentralAsia.[156] ThetencountriesoftheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)areamongthemostvulnerableintheworldtothenegativeeffectsofclimatechange,however,ASEAN'sclimatemitigationeffortsarenotcommensuratewiththeclimatechangethreatstheregionfaces.[157] Onhumans Mainarticle:Effectsofclimatechangeonhumans Seealso:Climatechangeandgender Theeffectsofclimatechange,incombinationwiththesustainedincreasesingreenhousegasemissions,haveledscientiststocharacterizeitasaclimateemergency.[158][159][160]Someclimateresearchers[161][162]andactivists[163]havecalleditanexistentialthreattocivilization.Someareasmaybecometoohotforhumanstolivein[164][165]whilepeopleinsomeareasmayexperienceinternalorlong-distancedisplacementtriggeredbyfloodingandotherclimatechangerelateddisasters.[166] Thevulnerabilityandexposureofhumanstoclimatechangevariesfromoneeconomicsectortoanotherandwillhavedifferentimpactsindifferentcountries.Wealthyindustrialisedcountries,whichhaveemittedthemostCO2,havemoreresourcesandsoaretheleastvulnerabletoglobalwarming.[167]Economicsectorsthatarelikelytobeaffectedincludeagriculture,humanhealth,fisheries,forestry,energy,insurance,financialservices,tourism,andrecreation.[168]Thequalityandquantityoffreshwaterwilllikelybeaffectedalmosteverywhere.Somepeoplemaybeparticularlyatriskfromclimatechange,suchasthepoor,youngchildrenandtheelderly.[150][169] AccordingtotheWorldHealthOrganization,between2030and2050,"climatechangeisexpectedtocauseabout250,000additionaldeathsperyear."[170]Asglobaltemperaturesincrease,sodoesthenumberofheatstress,heatstroke,andcardiovascularandkidneydiseasedeathsandillnesses.[140]Airpollutiongeneratedbyfossilfuelcombustionisbothamajordriverofglobalwarmingand–inparallelandforcomparison–thecause(oratleastasubstantiallycontributingfactor)ofalargenumberofannualdeathswithsomeestimatesashighas8.7millionexcessdeathsduring2018.[171][172]Itmaybedifficulttopredictorattributedeathstoanthropogenicglobalwarmingoritsparticulardriversasmanyeffects–suchaspossiblycontributingtohumanconflictandsocioeconomicdisruptions–andtheirmortalityimpactscouldbehighlyindirectorhardtoevaluate. Theeffectsofclimatechangeareofteninterlinkedandcanmutuallyandsynergistically[173]exacerbateeachotheraswellasexistingvulnerabilities[174][175][176]andotherrelatedenvironmentaldisruptionsandpressuressuchaspollutionandbiodiversityloss.[177][178] Foodsecurity Mainarticle:Climatechangeandagriculture Seealso:FoodsecurityandFoodvs.fuel ClimatechangewillimpactagricultureandfoodproductionaroundtheworldduetotheeffectsofelevatedCO2intheatmosphere;highertemperatures;alteredprecipitationandtranspirationregimes;increasedfrequencyofextremeevents;andmodifiedweed,pest,andpathogenpressure.[179]Climatechangeisprojectedtonegativelyaffectallfourpillarsoffoodsecurity:notonlyhowmuchfoodisavailable,butalsohoweasyfoodistoaccess(prices),foodqualityandhowstablethefoodsystemis.[180] Foodavailability 2011projectedchangesincropyieldsatdifferentlatitudeswithglobalwarming.Thisgraphisbasedonseveralstudies.[181] 2011projectedchangesinyieldsofselectedcropswithglobalwarming.Thisgraphisbasedonseveralstudies.[181] Asof2019,negativeimpactshavebeenobservedforsomecropsinlow-latitudes(maizeandwheat),whilepositiveimpactsofclimatechangehavebeenobservedinsomecropsinhigh-latitudes(maize,wheat,andsugarbeets).[182]Usingdifferentmethodstoprojectfuturecropyields,aconsistentpictureemergesofglobaldecreasesinyield.Maizeandsoybeandecreasewithanywarming,whereasriceandwheatproductionmightpeakat3 °Cofwarming.[183] Inmanyareas,fisherieshavealreadyseentheircatchdecreasebecauseofglobalwarmingandchangesinbiochemicalcycles.Incombinationwithoverfishing,warmingwatersdecreasethemaximumcatchpotential.[184]Globalcatchpotentialisprojectedtoreducefurtherin2050bylessthan4%ifemissionsarereducedstrongly,andbyabout8%forveryhighfutureemissions,withgrowthintheArcticOcean.[185] Otheraspectsoffoodsecurity Climatechangeimpactsdependstronglyonprojectedfuturesocialandeconomicdevelopment.Asof2019[update],anestimated831millionpeopleareundernourished.[186]Underahighemissionscenario(RCP6.0),cerealsareprojectedtobecome1–29%moreexpensivein2050dependingonthesocioeconomicpathway,particularlyaffectinglow-incomeconsumers.[186]Comparedtoanoclimatechangescenario,thiswouldputbetween1–181millionextrapeopleatriskofhunger.[186] WhileCO2isexpectedtobegoodforcropproductivityatlowertemperatures,itdoesreducethenutritionalvaluesofcrops,withforinstancewheathavinglessproteinandlessofsomeminerals.[187]Itisdifficulttoprojecttheimpactofclimatechangeonutilization(protectingfoodagainstspoilage,beinghealthyenoughtoabsorbnutrients,etc.)andonvolatilityoffoodprices.Mostmodelsprojectingthefuturedoindicatethatpriceswillbecomemorevolatile.[188] Droughtsresultincropfailuresandthelossofpastureforlivestock.[189] Watersecurity Seealso:Watersecurity Anumberofclimate-relatedtrendshavebeenobservedthataffectwaterresources.Theseincludechangesinprecipitation,thecryosphereandsurfacewaters(e.g.,changesinriverflows).[190]Observedandprojectedimpactsofclimatechangeonfreshwatersystemsandtheirmanagementaremainlyduetochangesintemperature,sealevelandprecipitationvariability.[191]Changesintemperaturearecorrelatedwithvariabilityinprecipitationbecausethewatercycleisreactivetotemperature.[192]Temperatureincreaseschangeprecipitationpatterns.Excessiveprecipitationleadstoexcessivesedimentdeposition,nutrientpollution,andconcentrationofmineralsinaquifers. Therisingglobaltemperaturewillcausesealevelriseandwillextendareasofsalinizationofgroundwaterandestuaries,resultinginadecreaseinfreshwateravailabilityforhumansandecosystemsincoastalareas.Therisingsealevelwillpushthesaltgradientintofreshwaterdepositsandwilleventuallypollutefreshwatersources.The2014fifthIPCCassessmentreportconcludedthat: Waterresourcesareprojectedtodecreaseinmostdrysubtropicalregionsandmid-latitudes,butincreaseinhighlatitudes.Asstreamflowbecomesmorevariable,evenregionswithincreasedwaterresourcescanexperienceadditionalshort-termshortages.[193] Perdegreewarming,amodel[clarificationneeded]averageof7%oftheworldpopulationisexpectedtohaveatleast20%lessrenewablewaterresource.[194] Climatechangeisprojectedtoreducewaterqualitybeforetreatment.Evenafterconventionaltreatments,risksremain.Thequalityreductionisaconsequenceofhighertemperatures,moreintenserainfall,droughtsanddisruptionoftreatmentfacilitiesduringfloods.[194] DroughtsthatstresswatersupplyareexpectedtoincreaseinsouthernEuropeandtheMediterraneanregion,centralEurope,centralandsouthernNorthAmerica,CentralAmerica,northeastBrazil,andsouthernAfrica.[195] Health Mainarticle:Effectsofclimatechangeonhumanhealth Humansareexposedtoclimatechangethroughchangingweatherpatterns(temperature,precipitation,sea-levelriseandmorefrequentextremeevents)andindirectlythroughchangesinwater,airandfoodqualityandchangesinecosystems,agriculture,industryandsettlementsandtheeconomy.[196]Airpollution,wildfires,andheatwavescausedbyglobalwarminghavesignificantlyaffectedhumanhealth,[197]andin2007,theWorldHealthOrganizationestimated150,000peoplewerebeingkilledbyclimate-change-relatedissueseveryyear.[198] AstudybytheWorldHealthOrganization[199]concludedthatclimatechangewasresponsiblefor3%ofdiarrhoea,3%ofmalaria,and3.8%ofdenguefeverdeathsworldwidein2004.Totalattributablemortalitywasabout0.2%ofdeathsin2004;ofthese,85%werechilddeaths.Theeffectsofmorefrequentandextremestormswereexcludedfromthisstudy. Thehumanimpactsincludeboththedirecteffectsofextremeweather,leadingtoinjuryandlossoflife,[200]aswellasindirecteffects,suchasundernutritionbroughtonbycropfailuresorlackofaccesssafedrinkingwater.[201]Forinstance,havingtoemigrateduetoanextremeweathereventcanleadtoincreasedratesofphysicalillnessesandpsychologicaldistress.[202]HigherlevelsofindoorandoutdoorCO2levelsmayimpairhumancognition.[203][204][205]Variousinfectiousdiseasesaremoreeasilytransmittedinawarmerclimate,suchasdenguefever,whichaffectschildrenmostseverely,andmalaria.Forinstance,invasivemosquitoeshavealreadybecomewidelyestablishedacrossEuropeande.g.Malariahasre-emergedinGreece.[206]Aminorfurthereffectareincreasesofpollenseasonlengthsandconcentrationsinsomeregionsoftheworld.[207][208][140]Youngchildrenarethemostvulnerabletofoodshortages,andtogetherwitholderpeople,toextremeheat.[209] AccordingtoareportfromtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeandInternationalLivestockResearchInstitute,climatechangecanfacilitateoutbreaksofzoonoses,i.e.diseasesthatpassfromanimalstohumans.OneexampleofsuchoutbreaksistheCOVID-19pandemic.[210]Mitigationofclimatechangeandrelatedenvironmentalissuessuchasdeforestationcouldhelppreventfuturepandemicsandoutbreaks.[211][212][213][214][215][216] Projections A2014studybytheWorldHealthOrganization[217]estimatedtheeffectofclimatechangeonhumanhealth,butnotalloftheeffectsofclimatechangewereincludedintheirestimates.Forexample,theeffectsofmorefrequentandextremestormswereexcluded.Thereportfurtherassumedcontinuedprogressinhealthandgrowth.Evenso,climatechangewasprojectedtocauseanadditional250,000deathsperyearbetween2030and2050.[218] TheauthorsoftheIPCCAR4Synthesisreport[219]: 48 projectedwithhighconfidencethatclimatechangewillbringsomebenefitsintemperateareas,suchasfewerdeathsfromcoldexposure,andsomemixedeffectssuchaschangesinrangeandtransmissionpotentialofmalariainAfrica.Benefitswereprojectedtobeoutweighedbynegativehealtheffectsofrisingtemperatures,especiallyindevelopingcountries. Economicdevelopmentisanimportantcomponentofpossibleadaptationtoclimatechange.Economicgrowthonitsown,however,isnotsufficienttoinsulatetheworld'spopulationfromdiseaseandinjuryduetoclimatechange.[196]Futurevulnerabilitytoclimatechangewilldependnotonlyontheextentofsocialandeconomicchange,butalsoonhowthebenefitsandcostsofchangearedistributedinsociety.[220]Forexample,inthe19thcentury,rapidurbanizationinwesternEuropeledtohealthplummeting.[220]Otherfactorsimportantindeterminingthehealthofpopulationsincludeeducation,theavailabilityofhealthservices,andpublic-healthinfrastructure.[196] Warmingabove1.5degreescanmaketropicalregionsuninhabitable,becausethethresholdof35degreesofwetbulbtemperature(thelimitofhumanadaptationtoheatandhumidity),willbepassed.43%ofthehumanpopulationliveinthetropics.[221] Onmentalhealth Seealso:Psychologicalimpactofclimatechange In2018,theAmericanPsychologicalAssociationissuedareportabouttheimpactofclimatechangeonmentalhealth.Itsaidthat"gradual,long-termchangesinclimatecanalsosurfaceanumberofdifferentemotions,includingfear,anger,feelingsofpowerlessness,orexhaustion".[222]Generallythisislikelytohavethegreatestimpactonyoungpeople.Californiasocialscientist,ReneeLertzman,likenstheclimate-relatedstressnowaffectingteenagersandthoseintheir20stoColdWarfearsthatgrippedyoungbabyboomerswhocameofageunderthethreatofnuclearannihilation.[223]Researchhasfoundthatalthoughthereareheightenedemotionalexperienceslinkedwithacknowledgementandanticipationofclimatechangeanditsimpactonsociety,theseareinherentlyadaptive.Furthermore,engagingwiththeseemotionalexperiencesleadstoincreasedresilience,agency,reflectivefunctioningandcollectiveaction.Individualsareencouragedtofindcollectivewaysofprocessingtheirclimaterelatedemotionalexperiencesinordertosupportmentalhealthandwellbeing.[224]A2018studyfoundthatunusuallyhotdayshaveprofoundeffectsonmentalhealthandthatglobalwarmingcouldcontributetoapproximately26,000moresuicidesintheU.S.by2050.[225]AstudypublishedinApril2020foundthatbytheendofthe21stcenturypeoplecouldbeexposedtoavoidableindoorCO2levelsofupto1400ppm,whichwouldbetripletheamountcommonlyexperiencedoutdoorstodayand,accordingtotheauthors,maycuthumans'basicdecision-makingabilityindoorsby~25%andcomplexstrategicthinkingby~50%.[226][227][228] Migration Mainarticle:Environmentalmigrant Seealso:EffectsofclimatechangeonislandnationsandClimatechangeadaptation Gradualbutpervasiveenvironmentalchangeandsuddennaturaldisastersbothinfluencethenatureandextentofhumanmigrationbutindifferentways. Slowonset Slow-onsetdisastersandgradualenvironmentalerosionsuchasdesertification,reductionofsoilfertility,coastalerosionandsea-levelrisearelikelytoinducelongtermmigration.[229]Migrationrelatedtodesertificationandreducedsoilfertilityislikelytobepredominantlyfromruralareasindevelopingcountriestotownsandcities.[230] Displacementandmigrationrelatedtosealevelrisewillmostlyaffectthosewholiveincitiesnearthecoast.Morethan90UScoastalcitiesarealreadyexperiencingchronicfloodingandthatnumberisexpectedtodoubleby2030.[231]NumerouscitiesinEuropewillbeaffectedbyrisingsealevels;especiallyintheNetherlands,SpainandItaly.[232]CoastalcitiesinAfricaarealsounderthreatduetorapidurbanizationandthegrowthofinformalsettlementsalongthecoast.[233]LowlyingPacificislandnationsincludingFiji,Kiribati,Nauru,Micronesia,theMarshallIslands,theSolomonIslands,Vanuatu,TimorLesteandTongaareespeciallyvulnerabletorisingseas.InJuly2019,theyissuedadeclaration"affirmingthatclimatechangeposesthesinglegreatestthreattothehumanrightsandsecurityofpresentandfuturegenerationsofPacificIslandpeoples"[234]andstatedtheirlandscouldbecomeuninhabitableasearlyas2030.[235] TheUnitedNationssaystherearealready64millionhumanmigrantsintheworldfleeingwars,hunger,persecutionandtheeffectsofglobalwarming.[236]In2018,theWorldBankestimatedthatclimatechangewillcauseinternalmigrationofbetween31and143millionpeopleastheyescapecropfailures,waterscarcity,andsealevelrise.ThestudyonlyincludedSub-SaharanAfrica,SouthAsia,andLatinAmerica.[237][238] A2020studyprojectsthatregionsinhabitedbyathirdofthehumanpopulationcouldbecomeashotasthehottestpartsoftheSaharawithin50yearswithoutachangeinpatternsofpopulationgrowthandwithoutmigration,unlessgreenhousegasemissionsarereduced.Theprojectedannualaveragetemperatureofabove29 °Cfortheseregionswouldbeoutsidethe"humantemperatureniche"–asuggestedrangeforclimatebiologicallysuitableforhumansbasedonhistoricaldataofmeanannualtemperatures(MAT)–andthemostaffectedregionshavelittleadaptivecapacityasof2020.[239][240]Thefollowingmatrixshowstheirprojectionsforpopulation-sizesoutsidethe"humantemperatureniche"–andthereforepotentialemigrantsoftheirregions–indifferentclimatechangescenariosandprojectionsofpopulationgrowthfor2070:[241] Amatrixofpopulationgrowth-andclimatechange-scenarios Demographicscenario(SSPs) Worldpopulationgrowth(billion) Worldpopulation(billion) Climatescenario RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP8.5 Meanprojectedglobaltemperatureriseof~1.5 °C – Meanprojectedglobaltemperatureriseof~3.2 °C Outside"humanclimateniche"(bn) Outside"humanclimateniche"(bn) Outside"humanclimateniche"(bn) Zerogrowth 0.00 7.26 1.06±0.30 1.62±0.42 2.37±0.43 SSP1 0.98 8.24 1.20±0.34 1.84±0.48 2.69±0.49 SSP2 2.20 9.46 1.38±0.39 2.12±0.55 3.09±0.56 SSP3 3.88 11.14 1.63±0.46 2.49±0.65 3.64±0.66 SSP4 2.20 9.46 1.38±0.39 2.12±0.55 3.09±0.56 SSP5 1.21 8.47 1.24±0.35 1.89±0.49 2.76±0.50 Suddenonset Seealso:Disasterresponse Sudden-onsetnaturaldisasterstendtocreatemassdisplacement,whichmayonlybeshortterm.However,HurricaneKatrinademonstratedthatdisplacementcanlastalongtime.Estimatessuggestthataquarteroftheonemillionpeople[242]displacedintheGulfCoastregionbyHurricaneKatrinahadnotreturnedtotheirhomesfiveyearsafterthedisaster.[243]Mizutori,theU.N.secretary-general'sspecialrepresentativeondisasterriskreduction,saysmillionsofpeoplearealsodisplacedfromtheirhomeseveryyearasresultofsudden-onsetdisasterssuchasintenseheatwaves,stormsandflooding.Shesays'climatecrisisdisasters'arehappeningattherateofoneaweek.[244] Conflict Mainarticle:Climatesecurity A2013studyfoundthatsignificantclimaticchangeswereassociatedwithahigherriskofconflictworldwide,andpredictedthat"amplifiedratesofhumanconflictcouldrepresentalargeandcriticalsocialimpactofanthropogenicclimatechangeinbothlow-andhigh-incomecountries."[245]Similarly,a2014studyfoundthathighertemperatureswereassociatedwithagreaterlikelihoodofviolentcrime,andpredictedthatglobalwarmingwouldcausemillionsofsuchcrimesintheUnitedStatesaloneduringthe21stcentury.[246]Climatechangecanworsenconflictsbyexacerbatingtensionsoverlimitedresourceslikedrinkingwater.Climatechangehasthepotentialtocauselargepopulationdislocationsandmigration,whichcanalsoleadtoincreasedtensionsandconflict.[247][248] However,a2018studyinthejournalNatureClimateChangefoundthatpreviousstudiesontherelationshipbetweenclimatechangeandconflictsufferedfromsamplingbiasandothermethodologicalproblems.[249]Factorsotherthanclimatechangearejudgedtobesubstantiallymoreimportantinaffectingconflict(basedonexpertelicitation).Thesefactorsincludeintergroupinequalityandlowsocio-economicdevelopment.[250] Despitetheseissues,militaryplannersareconcernedthatglobalwarmingisa"threatmultiplier"."Whetheritispoverty,foodandwaterscarcity,diseases,economicinstability,orthreatofnaturaldisasters,thebroadrangeofchangingclimaticconditionsmaybefarreaching.Thesechallengesmaythreatenstabilityinmuchoftheworld".[251]Forexample,theonsetoftheArabSpringin2010waspartlytheresultofaspikeinwheatpricesfollowingcroplossesfromthe2010Russianheatwave.[252][253] Economicimpact Mainarticle:Economicimpactsofclimatechange BusinessactivitiesaffectedbyclimatechangedasfoundintheEuropeanInvestmentBankInvestmentSurvey2020 Economicforecastsoftheimpactofglobalwarmingvaryconsiderably.Researchershavewarnedthatcurrenteconomicmodellingmayseriouslyunderestimatetheimpactofpotentiallycatastrophicclimatechange,andpointtotheneedfornewmodelsthatgiveamoreaccuratepictureofpotentialdamages.Nevertheless,onerecentstudyhasfoundthatpotentialglobaleconomicgainsifcountriesimplementmitigationstrategiestocomplywiththe2 °CtargetsetattheParisAgreementareinthevicinityofUS$17trillionperyearupto2100comparedtoaveryhighemissionscenario.[254] Globallossesrevealrapidlyrisingcostsduetoextremeweathereventssincethe1970s.[58]Socio-economicfactorshavecontributedtotheobservedtrendofgloballosses,suchaspopulationgrowthandincreasedwealth.[255]Partofthegrowthisalsorelatedtoregionalclimaticfactors,e.g.,changesinprecipitationandfloodingevents.Itisdifficulttoquantifytherelativeimpactofsocio-economicfactorsandclimatechangeontheobservedtrend.[256]Thetrenddoes,however,suggestincreasingvulnerabilityofsocialsystemstoclimatechange.[256] A2019modellingstudyfoundthatclimatechangehadcontributedtowardsglobaleconomicinequality.Wealthycountriesincolderregionshadeitherfeltlittleoveralleconomicimpactfromclimatechange,orpossiblybenefited,whereaspoorhottercountriesverylikelygrewlessthanifglobalwarminghadnotoccurred.[257] Thetotaleconomicimpactsfromclimatechangearedifficulttoestimate,butincreaseforhighertemperaturechanges.[258]Forinstance,totaldamagesareestimatedtobe90%lessifglobalwarmingislimitedto1.5 °Ccomparedto3.66 °C,awarminglevelchosentorepresentnomitigation.[259]Onestudyfounda3.5%reductioninglobalGDPbytheendofthecenturyifwarmingislimitedto3 °C,excludingthepotentialeffectoftippingpoints.Anotherstudynotedthatglobaleconomicimpactisunderestimatedbyafactoroftwotoeightwhentippingpointsareexcludedfromconsideration.[259]IntheOxfordEconomicshighemissionscenario,atemperatureriseof2degreesbytheyear2050wouldreduceglobalGDPby2.5%–7.5%.Bytheyear2100inthiscase,thetemperaturewouldriseby4degrees,whichcouldreducetheglobalGDPby30%intheworstcase.[260] Possibilityofcollapseandextinction Furtherinformation:Globalcatastrophicrisk§ Globalwarming AccordingtoprofessorofatmosphericscienceMichaelMann:"Thereisnoevidenceofclimatechangescenariosthatwouldrenderhumanbeingsextinct".However,acollapseofthecurrentsocietalorganization–thecontemporaryglobal,interconnectedcivilization–couldoccurevenat3degreesofwarming,especiallywhenconsideringthatclimatechangeisnottheonlyenvironmentalpressureandchallengehumanityfaces.[261][262] Abruptorirreversiblechanges Furtherinformation:Tippingpointsintheclimatesystem Self-reinforcingfeedbacksamplifyandaccelerateclimatechange.[263]TheclimatesystemexhibitsthresholdbehaviourortippingpointswhenthesefeedbacksleadpartsoftheEarthsystemintoanewstate,suchastherunawaylossoficesheetsorthedestructionoftoomanyforests.[264][265]TippingpointsarestudiedusingdatafromEarth'sdistantpastandbyphysicalmodelling.[264]Thereisalreadymoderateriskofglobaltippingpointsat1 °Cabovepre-industrialtemperatures,andthatriskbecomeshighat2.5 °C.[266] Tippingpointsare"perhapsthemost'dangerous'aspectoffutureclimatechanges",leadingtoirreversibleimpactsonsociety.[267]Manytippingpointsareinterlinked,sothattriggeringonemayleadtoacascadeofeffects,[268]evenwellbelow2degreesofwarming.[269]A2018studystatesthat45%ofenvironmentalproblems,includingthosecausedbyclimatechangeareinterconnectedandmaketheriskofadominoeffectbigger.[270][271] Amazonrainforest RainfallthatfallsontheAmazonrainforestisrecycledwhenitevaporatesbackintotheatmosphereinsteadofrunningoffawayfromtherainforest.Thiswaterisessentialforsustainingtherainforest.Duetodeforestationtherainforestislosingthisability,exacerbatedbyclimatechangewhichbringsmorefrequentdroughtstothearea.Thehigherfrequencyofdroughtsseeninthefirsttwodecadesofthe21stcentury,aswellasotherdata,signalthatatippingpointfromrainforesttosavannamightbeclose.Onestudyconcludedthatthisecosystemcouldenteramodeofa50-years-longcollapsetoasavannaaround2021,afterwhichitwouldbecomeincreasinglyanddisproportionallymoredifficulttopreventorreversethisshift.[272][273][274] GreenlandandWestAntarcticIcesheets FuturemeltoftheWestAntarcticicesheetispotentiallyabruptunderahighemissionscenario,asaconsequenceofapartialcollapse.[275]Partoftheicesheetisgroundedonbedrockbelowsealevel,makingitpossiblyvulnerabletotheself-enhancingprocessofmarineicesheetinstability.Afurtherhypothesisisthatmarineicecliffinstabilitywouldalsocontributetoapartialcollapse,butlimitedevidenceisavailableforitsimportance.[276]Apartialcollapseoftheicesheetwouldleadtorapidsealevelriseandalocaldecreaseinoceansalinity.Itwouldbeirreversibleonatimescalebetweendecadesandmillennia.[275] IncontrasttotheWestAntarcticicesheet,meltoftheGreenlandicesheetisprojectedtobetakingplacemoregraduallyovermillennia.[275]Sustainedwarmingbetween1 °C(lowconfidence)and4 °C(mediumconfidence)wouldleadtoacompletelossoftheicesheet,contributing7mtosealevelsglobally.[277]Theicelosscouldbecomeirreversibleduetoafurtherself-enhancingfeedback:theelevation-surfacemassbalancefeedback.Whenicemeltsontopoftheicesheet,theelevationdrops.Asairtemperatureishigheratloweraltitude,thispromotesfurthermelt.[278] AtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation Thismapshowsthegenerallocationanddirectionofthewarmsurface(red)andcolddeepwater(blue)currentsofthethermohalinecirculation.SalinityisrepresentedbycolorinunitsofthePracticalSalinityScale.Lowvalues(blue)arelesssaline,whilehighvalues(orange)aremoresaline.[279] Seealso:Shutdownofthermohalinecirculation TheAtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation(AMOC),animportantcomponentoftheEarth'sclimatesystem,isanorthwardflowofwarm,saltywaterintheupperlayersoftheAtlanticandasouthwardflowofcolderwaterinthedeepAtlantic.[280]: 5 PotentialimpactsassociatedwithAMOCchangesincludereducedwarmingor(inthecaseofabruptchange)absolutecoolingofnorthernhigh-latitudeareasnearGreenlandandnorth-westernEurope,anincreasedwarmingofSouthernHemispherehigh-latitudes,tropicaldrying,aswellaschangestomarineecosystems,terrestrialvegetation,oceanicCO2uptake,oceanicoxygenconcentrations,andshiftsinfisheries.[281] Accordingtoa2019assessmentintheIPCC'sSpecialReportontheOceanandCryosphereinaChangingClimateitisverylikely(greaterthan90%probability,basedonexpertjudgement)thatthestrengthoftheAMOCwilldecreasefurtheroverthecourseofthe21stcentury.[282]WarmingisstillexpectedtooccurovermostoftheEuropeanregiondownstreamoftheNorthAtlanticCurrentinresponsetoincreasingGHGs,aswellasoverNorthAmerica.Withmediumconfidence,theIPCCstatedthatitisveryunlikely(lessthan10%probability)thattheAMOCwillcollapseinthe21stcentury.[282]Thepotentialconsequencesofsuchacollapsecouldbesevere.[280]: 5  Irreversiblechange WarmingcommitmenttoCO2concentrations. IfemissionsofCO2weretobeabruptlystoppedandnonegativeemissiontechnologiesdeployed,theEarth'sclimatewouldnotstartmovingbacktoitspre-industrialstate.Instead,temperatureswouldstayelevatedatthesamelevelforseveralcenturies.Afteraboutathousandyears,20%to30%ofhuman-emittedCO2willremainintheatmosphere,nottakenupbytheoceanortheland,committingtheclimatetowarminglongafteremissionshavestopped.[283]Pathwaysthatkeepglobalwarmingunder1.5 °Coftenrelyonlarge-scaleremovalofCO2,whichfeasibilityisuncertainandhasclearrisks.[284] Irreversibleimpacts 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Prinn,R.G.;J.M.Reilly(2014),2014EnergyandClimateOutlook(PDF),Cambridge,Massachusetts:MITJointProgramontheScienceandPolicyofGlobalChange,archivedfromtheoriginal(PDF)on22October2014.Archived.Reportwebsite(archived2November2014). Stern,N.(2006),SternReviewReportontheEconomicsofClimateChange(pre-publicationedition),London,UK:HMTreasury,archivedfromtheoriginalon7April2010  Thisarticleincorporatespublicdomainmaterial fromthe USEPAdocument: GlossaryofClimateChangeTerms:ClimateChange:USEPA,USEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)ClimateChangeDivision,14June2012 WorldDevelopmentReport2010:DevelopmentandClimateChange(Report).WashingtonDC:WorldBank.1February2013.doi:10.1596/978-0-8213-7987-5.ISBN 978-0-8213-7987-5. USNRC(2011),ClimateStabilizationTargets:Emissions,Concentrations,andImpactsoverDecadestoMillennia.AreportbytheUSNationalResearchCouncil(NRC),Washington,D.C.:NationalAcademiesPress,archivedfromtheoriginalon27March2014 USGCRP(2017).Wuebbles,D.J.;Fahey,D.W.;Hibbard,K.A.;Dokken,D.J.;Stewart,B.C.;Maycock,T.K.(eds.).ClimateScienceSpecialReport:FourthNationalClimateAssessment,VolumeI(Report).Washington,DC,USA:U.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram. Furtherreading AttributionofExtremeWeatherEventsintheContextofClimateChange(Report).Washington,DC:NationalAcademiesofSciences,Engineering,andMedicine;DivisiononEarthandLifeStudies;BoardonAtmosphericSciencesandClimate;CommitteeonExtremeWeatherEventsandClimateChangeAttribution,TheNationalAcademiesPress.2016.doi:10.17226/21852. Thesocialcostofcarbondioxideunderclimate-economyfeedbacksandtemperaturevariabilityEnvironmentalResearchLetters.2021. Externallinks WikimediaCommonshasmediarelatedtoEffectsofglobalwarming. 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