Top climate scientists are sceptical that nations will rein in ...

As a leading climate scientist, Paola Arias doesn't need to look far to see ... Just under half said that global warming has caused them to ... Skiptomaincontent Thankyouforvisitingnature.com.YouareusingabrowserversionwithlimitedsupportforCSS.Toobtain thebestexperience,werecommendyouuseamoreuptodatebrowser(orturnoffcompatibilitymodein InternetExplorer).Inthemeantime,toensurecontinuedsupport,wearedisplayingthesitewithoutstyles andJavaScript. Advertisement nature newsfeature article TheDixiewildfireinCaliforniathisyearwasthesecond-largestinstatehistory,andwasfuelledbyhightemperaturesanddrought.Credit:EricThayer/Bloomberg/Getty DownloadPDF Asaleadingclimatescientist,PaolaAriasdoesn’tneedtolookfartoseetheworldchanging.ShiftingrainpatternsthreatenwatersuppliesinherhomecityofMedellín,Colombia,whilerisingsealevelsendangerthecountry’scoastline.Sheisn’tconfidentthatinternationalleaderswillslowglobalwarmingorthatherowngovernmentcanhandletheexpectedfallout,suchasmassmigrationsandcivilunrestoverrisinginequality.Withsuchanuncertainfuture,shethoughthardseveralyearsagoaboutwhethertohavechildren.“Myanswerwasno,”saysArias,aresearcherattheUniversityofAntioquiainMedellín,whowasoneofthe234scientistswhowroteaclimate-sciencereportpublishedbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)inAugust(seego.nature.com/3pjupro).Thatassessment,whichmakesclearthattheworldisrunningoutoftimetoavoidthemostsevereimpactsofclimatechange,willfigureprominentlyinclimatenegotiationsoverthenexttwoweeksattheCOP26meetinginGlasgow,UK.ManyotherleadingclimateresearchersshareArias’sconcernsaboutthefuture.Natureconductedananonymoussurveyofthe233livingIPCCauthorslastmonthandreceivedresponsesfrom92scientists—about40%ofthegroup.Theiranswerssuggeststrongscepticismthatgovernmentswillmarkedlyslowthepaceofglobalwarming,despitepoliticalpromisesmadebyinternationalleadersaspartofthe2015Parisclimateagreement.Sixintenoftherespondentssaidthattheyexpecttheworldtowarmbyatleast3 °Cbytheendofthecentury,comparedwithwhatconditionswerelikebeforetheIndustrialRevolution.ThatisfarbeyondtheParisagreement’sgoaltolimitwarmingto1.5–2 °C. Source:Natureanalysis Mostofthesurvey’srespondents—88%—saidtheythinkglobalwarmingconstitutesa‘crisis’,andnearlyasmanysaidtheyexpecttoseecatastrophicimpactsofclimatechangeintheirlifetimes.Justunderhalfsaidthatglobalwarminghascausedthemtoreconsidermajorlifedecisions,suchaswheretoliveandwhethertohavechildren.Morethan60%saidthattheyexperienceanxiety,grieforotherdistressbecauseofconcernsoverclimatechange. Source:Natureanalysis ForArias,whofrequentlyseestheimpactsofpoliticalinstabilityoutofherofficewindowasimmigrantsfromstrife-tornVenezuelawanderthestreetsseekingfoodandshelter,thechoiceaboutchildrencamenaturally.Shesaysmanyfriendsandcolleagueshavearrivedatthesameconclusion.“I’mnotsayingthatthatisadecisionthateveryoneshouldmake,”shesays,“butit’snotsomethingIamstrugglingwithmuchanymore.” Source:Natureanalysis ThepessimismexpressedbysomeIPCCpanellistsunderscoresthevastgulfbetweenhopesandexpectationsfortheclimatesummitthatbeganthisweekinGlasgow.Inadvanceofthemeeting,theUnitedStates,theEuropeanUnion,Chinaandothershaveannouncednewplanstocurbgreenhouse-gasemissions,althoughscientificanalysessuggestthoseplansstillfallwellshortoftheParisgoals.Overthenexttwoweeks,countrieswillformalize—andperhapsevenstrengthen—thosecommitments.Butmakingthemarealitywillrequireas-yet-unprecedentedpoliticalmobilizationatthenationallevelonceleadersreturnhome. Source:Natureanalysis “Rightnow,governmentsarejustatthestageofprovidinggreenpromises,butsofarwehavenotseenanyactionstocurbgreenhouse-gasemissions,”saysMouhamadouBambaSylla,anIPCCauthorandclimatemodellerattheAfricanInstituteforMathematicalSciencesinKigali,Rwanda.SyllasayshishomecountryofSenegalhasgonethroughallthemotionsanddevelopedadaptationplansforawarmingclimate,butisanythingchangingontheground?“Idon’tthinkso,”hesays.ClimateanxietyThescientistssurveyedbyNaturearepartoftheIPCCworkinggroupchargedwithassessingthecausesandextentofclimatechange.Theirlatestreport,approvedby195governmentsinAugust,concludedthatfossil-fuelemissionsaredrivingunprecedentedplanetarychanges,threateningbothpeopleandtheecosystemsthathumansrelyonforfoodandotherresources.“Unlessthereareimmediate,rapidandlarge-scalereductionsingreenhousegasemissions,limitingwarmingtocloseto1.5 °Coreven2° Cwillbebeyondreach,”theIPCCsaid.Butinannouncingthereport,IPCCscientistsstressedthatthesegoalscouldstillbeachieved. Source:Natureanalysis AseparatereportfromtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammelastweekprojectedthattheclimatecommitmentsalreadyannouncedbynationswouldputtheworldonapathtowards2.7 °Cofwarmingbytheendofthecentury(seego.nature.com/3vphvtu).Otherprojectionsraisethepossibilityofevenmorereductions.TheClimateActionTracker,aconsortiumofscientificandacademicorganizations,estimatesthatwarmingwouldbelimitedto2.4 °CifcountriesfollowthroughontheirlatestpledgesundertheParisagreement.Oneofthegoalsoftheclimatenegotiationsistopromptmore-ambitiousstepsforlimitinggreenhouse-gasemissions,butmostrespondentstotheNaturesurveyseemedtobepessimisticaboutfuturepoliciesandtheamountofwarming(seeSupplementaryinformationforsurveydatatables).Thesurveyresultsmightnotbesurprisinggiventhedecadesoflimitedprogressintacklingclimatechange,buttheopinionsofclimateresearchersshouldraisealarms,saysDianaLiverman,ageographerwhostudiesclimateattheUniversityofArizonainTucson.“Isupposethefactthatthey’repessimisticshouldmakeusevenmoreworried.”TheNaturesurveyhaslimitations:itdoesn’tcapturetheviewsof60%oftheIPCCauthors,andtwoscientistswroteseparatelytoNatureexpressingconcernsaboutthepollpreciselybecauseittapsintoopinionsratherthanscience.Thosewhotookpartdidsoinapersonalcapacity,notasrepresentativesoftheIPCC.Still,thesurveyprovidesasnapshotoftheviewsofasignificantproportionoftheresearcherswhowrotethereport.PositivesignalsAlthoughtheresultsindicatethatmanyharbourdeepconcerns,thesurveyalsorevealedsignsofoptimism.Morethan20%ofthescientistssaidtheyexpectnationstolimitglobalwarmingto2 °C,and4%saidtheworldmightindeedmeetitsmostaggressivegoaloflimitingwarmingto1.5 °C—atargetthatmanyscientistsandacademicswroteofffromthemomenttheParisagreementwassignedin2015. Source:Natureanalysis CharlesKoven,aclimatescientistatLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryinCalifornia,drawshopeaboutthefuturebecauseofadvancesinscienceandtechnology,andrapidlyevolvingpublicopinion.Onepositivedevelopment,hesays,isthatresultsinthepastfewyearsindicatethatglobalaveragetemperatureswillleveloffquicklyoncehumanitystopsemittinggreenhousegasesintotheatmosphere.Thisiscontrarytolong-heldexpectationsthatwarmingwouldcontinuefordecadesevenifemissionswerehalted,owingtoalagintheclimatesystem.Healsocitesplummetingcostsofclean-energytechnologies,aswellasrisingpublicdemandforactioninthefaceofincreasinglyvisibleclimateimpacts—suchasthewildfiresthatheandhisfamilyhavegrownaccustomedtoeachyearinCalifornia.“Fundamentally,Ibelievethatthemajorityofpeoplereallydocareaboutthefuture,andthatitispossibleforgovernmentstocoordinateandavoidtheworstclimateoutcomes,”Kovensays.Two-thirdsoftherespondentssaidtheyengageinclimateadvocacy,andalmostallofthosewhodosaidtheypromoteclimatesciencethroughspeeches,publicationsorvideos.Some43%ofthosewhoengagesaidtheyhavesignedlettersorpetitions,and40%saidtheyhavecontactedlawmakerstoadvocateforclimatepolicies.One-quartersaidtheyhavejoineddemonstrations. Source:Natureanalysis Thetablesturned,however,whenscientistsconsideredwhethertheIPCCshouldtakeonmoreofanadvocacyrole,whichwouldbeasharpbreakfromitsremitofneutrallyassessingthescience:nearlythree-quartersoftherespondentssaidtheIPCCshouldrefrainfromclimateadvocacy.OnesurveyrespondentgavetheIPCCcreditforstickingtoitscoremission.“Byfocusingonthebestavailablescientificinformation,ithasavoidedthepoliticizationthathasoccurredwithotherscientificissues,suchasmaskingandvaccinatingforCOVID-19,”therespondentsaid. Source:Natureanalysis WhenaskedtonamethebiggestaccomplishmentsoftheIPCC’sclimate-scienceworkinggroup,nearly40%oftherespondentssaidthepaneleffectivelyinformsthepublicandpolicymakersaboutclimatechangeandthepartthathumansareplaying.Many(27%)alsovaluehowtheIPCCassessesandsynthesizesevidence. Source:Natureanalysis Sinceitissueditsfirstreportin1990,theIPCChasgraduallyincreasedtherepresentationofresearchersfromtheglobalsouth.Nearly80%ofrespondentssaidthattheIPCCincludessuitablerepresentationofexpertsfromallcountries.Ariasdisagrees,sayingitcoulddomoretoactivelyrecruitscientistsfromtheglobalsouth.SyllasaystheIPCChasdoneanadequatejobonthatfront,giventhegeographicalimbalanceinthebroaderclimate-sciencecommunity.However,headds,theorganizationcoulddomoreintermsoflocaloutreachtopromotethescienceandtoengagepolicymakersafteritsreportsarepublished.“IwanttheIPCCtobemoreaggressiveonthat,”hesays. Source:Natureanalysis LikeArias,SyllaseestheimpactsofpoliticalandeconomicinstabilityaspeoplepileaboardsmallboatsleavingSenegalforaperilousjourneyinsearchofabetterfuture.Healsofearsthesituationwillonlygetworseastheclimatewarms.Althoughheiscurrentlyplanningtobuildahouseforhisfamily—farfromtheseaandinalocationthatisunlikelytoflood—Syllaisn’tconvincedthatSenegaliswherehewantstorideouttheclimatestorm.ButheiskeenlyawareofthefactthatEuropeandtheUnitedStatesarealsovulnerabletotheinevitableimpactsofglobalwarming.“Sothequestionis,wheredoyougo?” Nature599,22-24(2021) doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-021-02990-wSurveyconductedbyRichardMonastersky.AdditionalreportingbyMackenzieWhite. 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