Climate change - Wikipedia

Climate change threatens people with food and water scarcity, increased flooding, extreme heat, more disease, and economic loss. It can also drive human ... Climatechange FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia Jumptonavigation Jumptosearch CurrentriseinEarth'saveragetemperatureanditseffects Globalwarmingredirectshere.Forotheruses,seeClimatechange(disambiguation),andGlobalwarming(disambiguation).Thisarticleisaboutcontemporaryclimatechange.Forhistoricalclimatetrends,seeClimatevariabilityandchange. Averagesurfaceairtemperaturesfrom2011to2020comparedtothe1951–1980average Observedglobalaveragetemperaturechangesincethepre-industrialera.Themaindriverforincreasedglobaltemperaturesintheindustrialeraishumanactivity.Naturalforcesaddrelativelyminorvariability.[1]: SPM-7  Contemporaryclimatechangeincludesboththeglobalwarmingcausedbyhumans,anditsimpactsonEarth'sweatherpatterns.Therehavebeenpreviousperiodsofclimatechange,butthecurrentchangesaremorerapidthananyknowneventsinEarth'shistory.[2]Themaincauseistheemissionofgreenhousegases,mostlycarbondioxide(CO2)andmethane.Burningfossilfuelsforenergyusecreatesmostoftheseemissions.Agriculture,steelmaking,cementproduction,andforestlossareadditionalsources.[3]Temperatureriseisalsoaffectedbyclimatefeedbackssuchasthelossofsunlight-reflectingsnowcover,andthereleaseofcarbondioxidefromdrought-strickenforests.Collectively,theseamplifyglobalwarming.[4] CO2concentrationsoverthelast800,000yearsasmeasuredfromicecores(blue/green)anddirectly(black) Onland,temperatureshaverisenabouttwiceasfastastheglobalaverage.Desertsareexpanding,whileheatwavesandwildfiresarebecomingmorecommon.[5]IncreasedwarmingintheArctichascontributedtomeltingpermafrost,glacialretreatandseaiceloss.[6]Highertemperaturesarealsocausingmoreintensestormsandotherweatherextremes.[7]Inplacessuchascoralreefs,mountains,andtheArctic,manyspeciesareforcedtorelocateorbecomeextinct,astheirenvironmentchanges.[8]Climatechangethreatenspeoplewithfoodandwaterscarcity,increasedflooding,extremeheat,moredisease,andeconomicloss.Itcanalsodrivehumanmigration.[9]TheWorldHealthOrganizationcallsclimatechangethegreatestthreattoglobalhealthinthe21stcentury.[10]Evenifeffortstominimisefuturewarmingaresuccessful,someeffectswillcontinueforcenturies.Theseincludesealevelrise,andwarmer,moreacidicoceans.[11] Manyoftheseimpactsarealreadyfeltatthecurrentlevelofwarming,whichisabout1.2 °C(2 °F).TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)projectsevengreaterimpactsaswarmingcontinuesto1.5 °Candbeyond.[12]Additionalwarmingalsoincreasestheriskoftriggeringtippingpoints,suchasthemeltingoftheGreenlandicesheet.[13]Respondingtothesechangesinvolvestakingactionstolimittheamountofwarming,andadaptingtothem.[14]Futurewarmingcanbereduced(mitigated)byloweringgreenhousegasemissionsandremovingthemfromtheatmosphere.[14]Thiswillinvolveusingmorewindandsolarenergy,phasingoutcoal,andincreasingenergyefficiency.[15]Switchingtoelectricvehicles,andtoheatpumpsforhomesandcommercialbuildings,willfurtherlimitemissions.[16]PreventionofdeforestationandenhancingforestscanhelpabsorbCO2.[17]Somecommunitiesmayadapttoclimatechangethroughbettercoastlineprotection,disastermanagement,anddevelopmentofmoreresistantcrops.Bythemselves,theseeffortstoadaptcannotaverttheriskofsevere,widespreadandpermanentimpacts.[18] Underthe2015ParisAgreement,nationscollectivelyagreedtokeepwarming"wellunder2 °C"throughmitigationefforts.However,withpledgesmadeundertheAgreement,globalwarmingwouldstillreachabout2.7 °Cbytheendofthecentury.[19]Limitingwarmingto1.5 °Cwouldrequirehalvingemissionsby2030andachievingnet-zeroemissionsby2050.[20] Contents 1Terminology 2Observedtemperaturerise 3Driversofrecenttemperaturerise 3.1Greenhousegases 3.2Aerosolsandclouds 3.3Changesofthelandsurface 3.4Solarandvolcanicactivity 3.5Climatechangefeedback 4Futurewarmingandthecarbonbudget 5Impacts 5.1Physicalenvironment 5.1.1Tippingpointsandlong-termimpacts 5.2Natureandwildlife 5.3Humans 5.3.1Foodandhealth 5.3.2Livelihoods 6Responses 6.1Mitigation 6.1.1Cleanenergy 6.1.2Energyefficiency 6.1.3Agricultureandindustry 6.1.4Carbonsequestration 6.2Adaptation 7Policiesandpolitics 7.1Policyoptions 7.2Internationalclimateagreements 7.3Nationalresponses 8Scientificconsensusandsociety 8.1Scientificconsensus 8.2Publicawareness 8.2.1Denialandmisinformation 8.2.2Protestsandlawsuits 9Discovery 10Seealso 11References 11.1Explanatorynotes 11.2Notes 11.3Sources 11.3.1IPCCreports 11.3.1.1AR4WorkingGroupIReport 11.3.1.2AR4WorkingGroupIIReport 11.3.1.3AR4WorkingGroupIIIReport 11.3.1.4AR5WorkingGroupIReport 11.3.1.5AR5WorkingGroupIIIReport 11.3.1.6AR5SynthesisReport 11.3.1.7SpecialReport:GlobalWarmingof1.5 °C 11.3.1.8SpecialReport:ClimatechangeandLand 11.3.1.9SpecialReport:TheOceanandCryosphereinaChangingClimate 11.3.2AR6WorkingGroupIReport 11.3.3Otherpeer-reviewedsources 11.3.4Books,reportsandlegaldocuments 11.3.5Non-technicalsources 12Externallinks Terminology Climatechangeisdrivenbyrisinggreenhousegaslevelsintheatmosphere.ThisstrengthensthegreenhouseeffectwhichtrapsheatinEarth'sclimatesystem.[21] Beforethe1980s,itwasunclearwhetherwarmingbygreenhousegaseswoulddominateaerosol-inducedcooling.Scientiststhenoftenusedtheterminadvertentclimatemodificationtorefertothehumanimpactontheclimate.Inthe1980s,thetermsglobalwarmingandclimatechangewerepopularised.Theformerrefersonlytoincreasedsurfacewarming,thelatterdescribesthefulleffectofgreenhousegasesontheclimate.[22]GlobalwarmingbecamethemostpopulartermafterNASAclimatescientistJamesHansenuseditinhis1988testimonyintheU.S.Senate.[23]Inthe2000s,thetermclimatechangeincreasedinpopularity.[24]Globalwarmingusuallyreferstohuman-inducedwarmingoftheEarthsystem,whereasclimatechangecanrefertonaturaloranthropogenicchange.[25]Thetwotermsareoftenusedinterchangeably.[26] Variousscientists,politiciansandmediafigureshaveadoptedthetermsclimatecrisisorclimateemergencytotalkaboutclimatechange,andglobalheatinginsteadofglobalwarming.[27]Thepolicyeditor-in-chiefofTheGuardiansaidtheyincludedthislanguageintheireditorialguidelines"toensurethatwearebeingscientificallyprecise,whilealsocommunicatingclearlywithreadersonthisveryimportantissue".[28]In2019,OxfordLanguageschoseclimateemergencyasitswordoftheyear,definingitas"asituationinwhichurgentactionisrequiredtoreduceorhaltclimatechangeandavoidpotentiallyirreversibleenvironmentaldamageresultingfromit".[29][30] Observedtemperaturerise Mainarticles:Temperaturerecordofthelast2,000yearsandInstrumentaltemperaturerecord Globalsurfacetemperaturereconstructionoverthelast2000yearsusingproxydatafromtreerings,corals,andicecoresinblue.[31]Directlyobserveddataisinred.[32] Landsurfacetemperatureshaveincreasedfasterthanoceantemperatures.[32] Multipleindependentinstrumentaldatasetsshowthattheclimatesystemiswarming.[33]The2011–2020decadewarmed1.09 °C[0.95–1.20 °C]comparedtothepre-industrialbaseline(1850–1900).[34]Surfacetemperaturesarerisingbyabout0.2 °Cperdecade,[35]with2020reachingatemperatureof1.2 °Cabovepre-industrial.[36]Since1950,thenumberofcolddaysandnightshasdecreased,andthenumberofwarmdaysandnightshasincreased.[37] Therewaslittlenetwarmingbetweenthe18thcenturyandthemid-19thcentury.Climateinformationforthatperiodcomesfromclimateproxies,suchastreesandicecores.TheyshowthatnaturalvariationsoffsettheearlyeffectsoftheIndustrialRevolution.[38]Thermometerrecordsbegantoprovideglobalcoveragearound1850.[39]Historicalpatternsofwarmingandcooling,liketheMedievalClimateAnomalyandtheLittleIceAge,didnotoccuratthesametimeacrossdifferentregions.Temperaturesmayhavereachedashighasthoseofthelate-20thcenturyinalimitedsetofregions.[40]Therehavebeenprehistoricalepisodesofglobalwarming,suchasthePaleocene–EoceneThermalMaximum.[41]However,themodernobservedriseintemperatureandCO2concentrationshasbeensorapidthatevenabruptgeophysicaleventsinEarth'shistorydonotapproachcurrentrates.[42] Evidenceofwarmingfromairtemperaturemeasurementsarereinforcedwithawiderangeofotherobservations.[43][44]Therehasbeenanincreaseinthefrequencyandintensityofheavyprecipitation,meltingofsnowandlandice,andincreasedatmospherichumidity.[45]Floraandfaunaarealsobehavinginamannerconsistentwithwarming;forinstance,plantsarefloweringearlierinspring.[46]Anotherkeyindicatoristhecoolingoftheupperatmosphere,whichdemonstratesthatgreenhousegasesaretrappingheatneartheEarth'ssurfaceandpreventingitfromradiatingintospace.[47] Regionswarmatvariousrates.Thepatternisindependentofwheregreenhousegasesareemitted,becausethegasespersistlongenoughtodiffuseacrosstheplanet.Sincethepre-industrialperiod,theaveragesurfacetemperatureoverlandregionshasincreasedalmosttwiceasfastastheglobal-averagesurfacetemperature.[48]Thisisbecauseofthelargerheatcapacityofoceans,andbecauseoceanslosemoreheatbyevaporation.[49]Thethermalenergyintheglobalclimatesystemhasgrownwithonlybriefpausessinceatleast1970,andover90%ofthisextraenergyhasbeenstoredintheocean.[50][51]Theresthasheatedtheatmosphere,meltedice,andwarmedthecontinents.[52] TheNorthernHemisphereandtheNorthPolehavewarmedmuchfasterthantheSouthPoleandSouthernHemisphere.TheNorthernHemispherenotonlyhasmuchmoreland,butalsomoreseasonalsnowcoverandseaice.Asthesesurfacesflipfromreflectingalotoflighttobeingdarkaftertheicehasmelted,theystartabsorbingmoreheat.[53]LocalblackcarbondepositsonsnowandicealsocontributetoArcticwarming.[54]Arctictemperaturesareincreasingatovertwicetherateoftherestoftheworld.[55]MeltingofglaciersandicesheetsintheArcticdisruptsoceancirculation,includingaweakenedGulfStream,furtherchangingtheclimate.[56] Driversofrecenttemperaturerise Mainarticle:Attributionofrecentclimatechange Contributorstoclimatechangefrom1850–1900totheaverageof2010–2019,asreportedinthesixthIPCCassessmentreport.TheIPCCfoundnosignificantcontributionfrominternalvariabilityorsolarandvolcanicdrivers. Theclimatesystemexperiencesvariouscyclesonitsownwhichcanlastforyears(suchastheElNiño–SouthernOscillation),decadesorevencenturies.[57]Otherchangesarecausedbyanimbalanceofenergythatis"external"totheclimatesystem,butnotalwaysexternaltotheEarth.[58]Examplesofexternalforcingsincludechangesintheconcentrationsofgreenhousegases,solarluminosity,volcaniceruptions,andvariationsintheEarth'sorbitaroundtheSun.[59] Todeterminethehumancontributiontoclimatechange,knowninternalclimatevariabilityandnaturalexternalforcingsneedtoberuledout.Akeyapproachistodetermineunique"fingerprints"forallpotentialcauses,thencomparethesefingerprintswithobservedpatternsofclimatechange.[60]Forexample,solarforcingcanberuledoutasamajorcause.Itsfingerprintwouldbewarmingintheentireatmosphere.Yet,onlytheloweratmospherehaswarmed,consistentwithgreenhousegasforcing.[61]Attributionofrecentclimatechangeshowsthatthemaindriveriselevatedgreenhousegases,butthataerosolsalsohaveastrongeffect.[62] Greenhousegases Mainarticles:Greenhousegas,Greenhousegasemissions,Greenhouseeffect,andCarbondioxideinEarth'satmosphere TheEarthabsorbssunlight,thenradiatesitasheat.Greenhousegasesintheatmosphereabsorbandreemitinfraredradiation,slowingtherateatwhichitcanpassthroughtheatmosphereandescapeintospace.[63]BeforetheIndustrialRevolution,naturally-occurringamountsofgreenhousegasescausedtheairnearthesurfacetobeabout33 °Cwarmerthanitwouldhavebeenintheirabsence.[64][65]Whilewatervapour(~50%)andclouds(~25%)arethebiggestcontributorstothegreenhouseeffect,theyincreaseasafunctionoftemperatureandarethereforefeedbacks.Ontheotherhand,concentrationsofgasessuchasCO2(~20%),troposphericozone,[66]CFCsandnitrousoxidearenottemperature-dependent,andarethereforeexternalforcings.[67] HumanactivitysincetheIndustrialRevolution,mainlyextractingandburningfossilfuels(coal,oil,andnaturalgas),[68]hasincreasedtheamountofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere,resultinginaradiativeimbalance.In2019,theconcentrationsofCO2andmethanehadincreasedbyabout48%and160%,respectively,since1750.[69]TheseCO2levelsarehigherthantheyhavebeenatanytimeduringthelast2millionyears.Concentrationsofmethanearefarhigherthantheywereoverthelast800,000years.[70] TheGlobalCarbonProjectshowshowadditionstoCO2since1880havebeencausedbydifferentsourcesrampinguponeafteranother. Globalanthropogenicgreenhousegasemissionsin2018,excludingthosefromlandusechange,wereequivalentto52 billiontonnesofCO2.Oftheseemissions,72%wasCO2,19%wasmethane,6%wasnitrousoxide,and3%wasfluorinatedgases.[71]CO2emissionsprimarilycomefromburningfossilfuelstoprovideenergyfortransport,manufacturing,heating,andelectricity.[3]AdditionalCO2emissionscomefromdeforestationandindustrialprocesses,whichincludetheCO2releasedbythechemicalreactionsformakingcement,steel,aluminum,andfertiliser.[72]Methaneemissionscomefromlivestock,manure,ricecultivation,landfills,wastewater,andcoalmining,aswellasoilandgasextraction.[73]Nitrousoxideemissionslargelycomefromthemicrobialdecompositionofinorganicandorganicfertiliser.[74]Fromaproductionstandpoint,theprimarysourcesofglobalgreenhousegasemissionsareestimatedas:electricityandheat(25%),agricultureandforestry(24%),industryandmanufacturing(21%),transport(14%),andbuildings(6%).[75] Despitethecontributionofdeforestationtogreenhousegasemissions,theEarth'slandsurface,particularlyitsforests,remainasignificantcarbonsinkforCO2.Naturalprocesses,suchascarbonfixationinthesoilandphotosynthesis,morethanoffsetthegreenhousegascontributionsfromdeforestation.Theland-surfacesinkisestimatedtoremoveabout29%ofannualglobalCO2emissions.[76]Theoceanalsoservesasasignificantcarbonsinkviaatwo-stepprocess.First,CO2dissolvesinthesurfacewater.Afterwards,theocean'soverturningcirculationdistributesitdeepintotheocean'sinterior,whereitaccumulatesovertimeaspartofthecarboncycle.Overthelasttwodecades,theworld'soceanshaveabsorbed20to30%ofemittedCO2.[77] Aerosolsandclouds Airpollution,intheformofaerosols,notonlyputsalargeburdenonhumanhealth,butalsoaffectstheclimateonalargescale.[78]From1961to1990,agradualreductionintheamountofsunlightreachingtheEarth'ssurfacewasobserved,aphenomenonpopularlyknownasglobaldimming,[79]typicallyattributedtoaerosolsfrombiofuelandfossilfuelburning.[80]Globally,aerosolshavebeendecliningsince1990,meaningthattheynolongermaskgreenhousegaswarmingasmuch.[81] Aerosolsscatterandabsorbsolarradiation.TheyalsohaveindirecteffectsontheEarth'sradiationbudget.Sulfateaerosolsactascloudcondensationnucleiandleadtocloudsthathavemoreandsmallerclouddroplets.Thesecloudsreflectsolarradiationmoreefficientlythancloudswithfewerandlargerdroplets.[82]Theyalsoreducethegrowthofraindrops,whichmakescloudsmorereflectivetoincomingsunlight.[83]Indirecteffectsofaerosolsarethelargestuncertaintyinradiativeforcing.[84] Whileaerosolstypicallylimitglobalwarmingbyreflectingsunlight,blackcarboninsootthatfallsonsnoworicecancontributetoglobalwarming.Notonlydoesthisincreasetheabsorptionofsunlight,italsoincreasesmeltingandsea-levelrise.[85]LimitingnewblackcarbondepositsintheArcticcouldreduceglobalwarmingby0.2 °Cby2050.[86] Changesofthelandsurface Therateofglobaltreecoverlosshasapproximatelydoubledsince2001,toanannuallossapproachinganareathesizeofItaly.[87] HumanschangetheEarth'ssurfacemainlytocreatemoreagriculturalland.Today,agriculturetakesup34%ofEarth'slandarea,while26%isforests,and30%isuninhabitable(glaciers,deserts,etc.).[88]Theamountofforestedlandcontinuestodecrease,largelyduetoconversiontocroplandinthetropics.[89]Thisdeforestationisthemostsignificantaspectoflandsurfacechangeaffectingglobalwarming.Themaincausesofdeforestationare:permanentland-usechangefromforesttoagriculturallandproducingproductssuchasbeefandpalmoil(27%),loggingtoproduceforestry/forestproducts(26%),shorttermshiftingcultivation(24%),andwildfires(23%).[90] Landusechangesnotonlyaffectgreenhousegasemissions.Thetypeofvegetationinaregionaffectsthelocaltemperature.Itimpactshowmuchofthesunlightgetsreflectedbackintospace(albedo),andhowmuchheatislostbyevaporation.Forinstance,thechangefromadarkforesttograsslandmakesthesurfacelighter,causingittoreflectmoresunlight.Deforestationcanalsoaffecttemperaturesbymodifyingthereleaseofchemicalcompoundsthatinfluenceclouds,andbychangingwindpatterns.[91]Intropicandtemperateareastheneteffectistoproducesignificantwarming,whileatlatitudesclosertothepolesagainofalbedo(asforestisreplacedbysnowcover)leadstoacoolingeffect.[91]Globally,theseeffectsareestimatedtohaveledtoaslightcooling,dominatedbyanincreaseinsurfacealbedo.[92] Solarandvolcanicactivity Furtherinformation:Solaractivityandclimate Physicalclimatemodelsareunabletoreproducetherapidwarmingobservedinrecentdecadeswhentakingintoaccountonlyvariationsinsolaroutputandvolcanicactivity.[93]AstheSunistheEarth'sprimaryenergysource,changesinincomingsunlightdirectlyaffecttheclimatesystem.[84]Solarirradiancehasbeenmeasureddirectlybysatellites,[94]andindirectmeasurementsareavailablefromtheearly1600sonwards.[84]TherehasbeennoupwardtrendintheamountoftheSun'senergyreachingtheEarth.[95]Furtherevidenceforgreenhousegasescausingglobalwarmingcomesfrommeasurementsthatshowawarmingoftheloweratmosphere(thetroposphere),coupledwithacoolingoftheupperatmosphere(thestratosphere).[96]Ifsolarvariationswereresponsiblefortheobservedwarming,thetroposphereandstratospherewouldbothwarm.[61] Explosivevolcaniceruptionsrepresentthelargestnaturalforcingovertheindustrialera.Whentheeruptionissufficientlystrong(withsulfurdioxidereachingthestratosphere),sunlightcanbepartiallyblockedforacoupleofyears.Thetemperaturesignallastsabouttwiceaslong.Intheindustrialera,volcanicactivityhashadnegligibleimpactsonglobaltemperaturetrends.[97]Present-dayvolcanicCO2emissionsareequivalenttolessthan1%ofcurrentanthropogenicCO2emissions.[98] Climatechangefeedback Mainarticles:ClimatechangefeedbackandClimatesensitivitySeaicereflects50%to70%ofincomingsolarradiationwhilethedarkoceansurfaceonlyreflects6%,someltingseaiceisaself-reinforcingfeedback.[99] Theresponseoftheclimatesystemtoaninitialforcingismodifiedbyfeedbacks:increasedbyself-reinforcingfeedbacksandreducedbybalancingfeedbacks.[100]Themainreinforcingfeedbacksarethewater-vapourfeedback,theice–albedofeedback,andprobablytheneteffectofclouds.[101]Theprimarybalancingmechanismisradiativecooling,asEarth'ssurfacegivesoffmoreheattospaceinresponsetorisingtemperature.[102]Inadditiontotemperaturefeedbacks,therearefeedbacksinthecarboncycle,suchasthefertilizingeffectofCO2onplantgrowth.[103]Uncertaintyoverfeedbacksisthemajorreasonwhydifferentclimatemodelsprojectdifferentmagnitudesofwarmingforagivenamountofemissions.[104] Asairgetswarmer,itcanholdmoremoisture.Afterinitialwarmingduetoemissionsofgreenhousegases,theatmospherewillholdmorewater.Watervapourisapotentgreenhousegas,sothisfurtherheatstheatmosphere.[101]Ifcloudcoverincreases,moresunlightwillbereflectedbackintospace,coolingtheplanet.Ifcloudsbecomehigherandthinner,theyactasaninsulator,reflectingheatfrombelowbackdownwardsandwarmingtheplanet.[105]Overall,thenetcloudfeedbackovertheindustrialerahasprobablyexacerbatedtemperaturerise.[106]ThereductionofsnowcoverandseaiceintheArcticreducesthealbedooftheEarth'ssurface.[107]MoreoftheSun'senergyisnowabsorbedintheseregions,contributingtoamplificationofArctictemperaturechanges.[108]Arcticamplificationisalsomeltingpermafrost,whichreleasesmethaneandCO2intotheatmosphere.[109] Aroundhalfofhuman-causedCO2emissionshavebeenabsorbedbylandplantsandbytheoceans.[110]Onland,elevatedCO2andanextendedgrowingseasonhavestimulatedplantgrowth.Climatechangeincreasesdroughtsandheatwavesthatinhibitplantgrowth,whichmakesituncertainwhetherthiscarbonsinkwillcontinuetogrowinthefuture.[111]Soilscontainlargequantitiesofcarbonandmayreleasesomewhentheyheatup.[112]AsmoreCO2andheatareabsorbedbytheocean,itacidifies,itscirculationchangesandphytoplanktontakesuplesscarbon,decreasingtherateatwhichtheoceanabsorbsatmosphericcarbon.[113]Climatechangecanincreasemethaneemissionsfromwetlands,marineandfreshwatersystems,andpermafrost.[114] Futurewarmingandthecarbonbudget Furtherinformation:Carbonbudget,Climatemodel,andCarboncycle Projectedglobalsurfacetemperaturechangesrelativeto1850–1900,basedonCMIP6multi-modelmeanchanges. Futurewarmingdependsonthestrengthsofclimatefeedbacksandonemissionsofgreenhousegases.[115]Theformerareoftenestimatedusingclimatemodels,developedbymultiplescientificinstitutions.[116]Aclimatemodelisarepresentationofthephysical,chemical,andbiologicalprocessesthataffecttheclimatesystem.[117]ModelsincludechangesintheEarth'sorbit,historicalchangesintheSun'sactivity,andvolcanicforcing.[118]Computermodelsattempttoreproduceandpredictthecirculationoftheoceans,theannualcycleoftheseasons,andtheflowsofcarbonbetweenthelandsurfaceandtheatmosphere.[119]Modelsprojectdifferentfuturetemperaturerisesforgivenemissionsofgreenhousegases;theydonotfullyagreeonthestrengthofdifferentfeedbacksonclimatesensitivityandmagnitudeofinertiaoftheclimatesystem.[120] Thephysicalrealismofmodelsistestedbyexaminingtheirabilitytosimulatecontemporaryorpastclimates.[121]PastmodelshaveunderestimatedtherateofArcticshrinkage[122]andunderestimatedtherateofprecipitationincrease.[123]Sealevelrisesince1990wasunderestimatedinoldermodels,butmorerecentmodelsagreewellwithobservations.[124]The2017UnitedStates-publishedNationalClimateAssessmentnotesthat"climatemodelsmaystillbeunderestimatingormissingrelevantfeedbackprocesses".[125] Asubsetofclimatemodelsaddsocietalfactorstoasimplephysicalclimatemodel.Thesemodelssimulatehowpopulation,economicgrowth,andenergyuseaffect –andinteractwith –thephysicalclimate.Withthisinformation,thesemodelscanproducescenariosoffuturegreenhousegasemissions.Thisisthenusedasinputforphysicalclimatemodelstogenerateclimatechangeprojections.[126]Insomescenariosemissionscontinuetoriseoverthecentury,whileothershavereducedemissions.[127]Fossilfuelresourcesaretooabundantforshortagestobereliedontolimitcarbonemissionsinthe21stcentury.[128]Emissionsscenarioscanbecombinedwithmodellingofthecarboncycletopredicthowatmosphericconcentrationsofgreenhousegasesmightchangeinthefuture.[129]Accordingtothesecombinedmodels,by2100theatmosphericconcentrationofCO2couldbeaslowas380orashighas1400ppm,dependingonthesocioeconomicscenarioandthemitigationscenario.[130] TheIPCCSixthAssessmentReportprojectsthatglobalwarmingisverylikelytoreach1.0 °Cto1.8 °Cbythelate21stcenturyundertheverylowGHGemissionsscenario.Inanintermediatescenarioglobalwarmingwouldreach2.1 °Cto3.5 °C,and3.3 °Cto5.7 °CundertheveryhighGHGemissionsscenario.[131]Theseprojectionsarebasedonclimatemodelsincombinationwithobservations.[132] Theremainingcarbonbudgetisdeterminedbymodellingthecarboncycleandtheclimatesensitivitytogreenhousegases.[133]AccordingtotheIPCC,globalwarmingcanbekeptbelow1.5 °Cwithatwo-thirdschanceifemissionsafter2018donotexceed420or570gigatonnesofCO2.[a]Thiscorrespondsto10to13yearsofcurrentemissions.Therearehighuncertaintiesaboutthebudget.Forinstance,itmaybe100gigatonnesofCO2smallerduetomethanereleasefrompermafrostandwetlands.[135] Impacts Mainarticle:Effectsofclimatechange ThesixthIPCCAssessmentReportprojectschangesinaveragesoilmoisturethatcandisruptagricultureandecosystems.Areductioninsoilmoisturebyonestandarddeviationmeansthataveragesoilmoisturewillapproximatelymatchtheninthdriestyearbetween1850and1900atthatlocation. Physicalenvironment Mainarticle:Physicalimpactsofclimatechange Theenvironmentaleffectsofclimatechangearebroadandfar-reaching,affectingoceans,ice,andweather.Changesmayoccurgraduallyorrapidly.Evidencefortheseeffectscomesfromstudyingclimatechangeinthepast,frommodelling,andfrommodernobservations.[136]Sincethe1950s,droughtsandheatwaveshaveappearedsimultaneouslywithincreasingfrequency.[137]ExtremelywetordryeventswithinthemonsoonperiodhaveincreasedinIndiaandEastAsia.[138]Therainfallrateandintensityofhurricanesandtyphoonsislikelyincreasing.[7]Frequencyoftropicalcycloneshasnotincreasedasaresultofclimatechange.[139] Historicalsealevelreconstructionandprojectionsupto2100publishedin2017bytheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram[140] Globalsealevelisrisingasaconsequenceofglacialmelt,meltoftheicesheetsinGreenlandandAntarctica,andthermalexpansion.Between1993and2020,theriseincreasedovertime,averaging3.3 ± 0.3 mmperyear.[141]Overthe21stcentury,theIPCCprojectsthatinaveryhighemissionsscenariothesealevelcouldriseby61–110 cm.[142]IncreasedoceanwarmthisunderminingandthreateningtounplugAntarcticglacieroutlets,riskingalargemeltoftheicesheet[143]andthepossibilityofa2-metersealevelriseby2100underhighemissions.[144] ClimatechangehasledtodecadesofshrinkingandthinningoftheArcticseaice.[145]Whileice-freesummersareexpectedtoberareat1.5 °Cdegreesofwarming,theyaresettooccuronceeverythreetotenyearsatawarminglevelof2 °C.[146]HigheratmosphericCO2concentrationshaveledtochangesinoceanchemistry.AnincreaseindissolvedCO2iscausingoceanstoacidify.[147]Inaddition,oxygenlevelsaredecreasingasoxygenislesssolubleinwarmerwater.[148]Deadzonesintheocean,regionswithverylittleoxygen,areexpandingtoo.[149] Tippingpointsandlong-termimpacts Thegreatertheamountofglobalwarming,thegreatertheriskofpassingthrough‘tippingpoints’,thresholdsbeyondwhichcertainimpactscannolongerbeavoidedeveniftemperaturesarereduced.[150]AnexampleisthecollapseofWestAntarcticandGreenlandicesheets,whereatemperatureriseof1.5to2 °Cmaycommittheicesheetstomelt,althoughthetimescaleofmeltisuncertainanddependsonfuturewarming.[151][12]Somelarge-scalechangescouldoccuroverashorttimeperiod,suchasacollapseoftheAtlanticMeridionalOverturningCirculation,[152]whichwouldtriggermajorclimatechangesintheNorthAtlantic,Europe,andNorthAmerica.[153] Thelong-termeffectsofclimatechangeincludefurthericemelt,oceanwarming,sealevelrise,andoceanacidification.Onthetimescaleofcenturiestomillennia,themagnitudeofclimatechangewillbedeterminedprimarilybyanthropogenicCO2emissions.[154]ThisisduetoCO2'slongatmosphericlifetime.[154]OceanicCO2uptakeisslowenoughthatoceanacidificationwillcontinueforhundredstothousandsofyears.[155]Theseemissionsareestimatedtohaveprolongedthecurrentinterglacialperiodbyatleast100,000years.[156]Sealevelrisewillcontinueovermanycenturies,withanestimatedriseof2.3metresperdegreeCelsius(4.2 ft/°F)after2000years.[157] Natureandwildlife Mainarticle:Climatechangeandecosystems Recentwarminghasdrivenmanyterrestrialandfreshwaterspeciespolewardandtowardshigheraltitudes.[158]HigheratmosphericCO2levelsandanextendedgrowingseasonhaveresultedinglobalgreening.However,heatwavesanddroughthavereducedecosystemproductivityinsomeregions.Thefuturebalanceoftheseopposingeffectsisunclear.[159]Climatechangehascontributedtotheexpansionofdrierclimatezones,suchastheexpansionofdesertsinthesubtropics.[160]Thesizeandspeedofglobalwarmingismakingabruptchangesinecosystemsmorelikely.[161]Overall,itisexpectedthatclimatechangewillresultintheextinctionofmanyspecies.[162] Theoceanshaveheatedmoreslowlythantheland,butplantsandanimalsintheoceanhavemigratedtowardsthecolderpolesfasterthanspeciesonland.[163]Justasonland,heatwavesintheoceanoccurmorefrequentlyduetoclimatechange,harmingawiderangeoforganismssuchascorals,kelp,andseabirds.[164]Oceanacidificationmakesitharderfororganismssuchasmussels,barnaclesandcoralstoproduceshellsandskeletons;andheatwaveshavebleachedcoralreefs.[165]Harmfulalgalbloomsenhancedbyclimatechangeandeutrophicationloweroxygenlevels,disruptfoodwebsandcausegreatlossofmarinelife.[166]Coastalecosystemsareunderparticularstress.Almosthalfofglobalwetlandshavedisappearedduetoclimatechangeandotherhumanimpacts.[167] Climatechangeimpactsontheenvironment Ecologicalcollapse.BleachinghasdamagedtheGreatBarrierReefandthreatensreefsworldwide.[168] Extremeweather.Droughtandhightemperaturesworsenedthe2020bushfiresinAustralia.[169] Arcticwarming.Permafrostthawsundermineinfrastructureandreleasemethane,agreenhousegas.[109] Habitatdestruction.Manyarcticanimalsrelyonseaice,whichhasbeendisappearinginawarmingArctic.[170] Pestpropagation.Mildwintersallowmorepinebeetlestosurvivetokilllargeswathsofforest.[171] Humans Mainarticle:Effectsofclimatechangeonhumans Furtherinformation:Effectsofclimatechangeonhumanhealth,Climatesecurity,Economicsofclimatechange,andClimatechangeandagriculture TheIPCCSixthAssessmentReport(2021)projectsthatextremeweatherwillbeprogressivelymorecommonastheEarthwarms.[172] Theeffectsofclimatechangeonhumans,mostlyduetowarmingandshiftsinprecipitation,havebeendetectedworldwide.Impactsarenowobservableonallcontinentsandacrossoceanregions,[173]withlow-latitude,lessdevelopedareasfacingthegreatestrisk.[174]Continuedwarminghaspotentially“severe,pervasiveandirreversibleimpacts”forpeopleandecosystems.[175]Therisksareunevenlydistributed,butaregenerallygreaterfordisadvantagedpeopleindevelopinganddevelopedcountries.[176] Foodandhealth Healthimpactsincludeboththedirecteffectsofextremeweather,leadingtoinjuryandlossoflife,[177]andindirecteffectssuchasundernutritionbroughtonbycropfailures.[178]Variousinfectiousdiseasesaremoreeasilytransmittedinawarmerclimate,suchasdenguefever,whichaffectschildrenmostseverely,andmalaria.[179]Youngchildrenarethemostvulnerabletofoodshortages,andtogetherwitholderpeople,toextremeheat.[180]TheWorldHealthOrganization(WHO)hasestimatedthatbetween2030and2050,climatechangeisexpectedtocausearound250,000additionaldeathsperyearfromheatexposureinelderlypeople,increasesindiarrhealdisease,malaria,dengue,coastalflooding,andchildhoodundernutrition.[181]Over500,000additionaladultdeathsareprojectedyearlyby2050duetoreductionsinfoodavailabilityandquality.[182]Othermajorhealthrisksassociatedwithclimatechangeincludeairandwaterquality.[183]TheWHOhasclassifiedhumanimpactsfromclimatechangeasthegreatestthreattoglobalhealthinthe21stcentury.[184] Climatechangeisaffectingfoodsecurity.Ithascausedreductioninglobalmeanyieldsofmaize,wheat,andsoybeansbetween1981and2010.[185]Futurewarmingcouldfurtherreduceglobalyieldsofmajorcrops.[186]Cropproductionwillprobablybenegativelyaffectedinlow-latitudecountries,whileeffectsatnorthernlatitudesmaybepositiveornegative.[187]Uptoanadditional183millionpeopleworldwide,particularlythosewithlowerincomes,areatriskofhungerasaconsequenceoftheseimpacts.[188]Theeffectsofwarmingontheoceansimpactfishstocks,withaglobaldeclineinthemaximumcatchpotential.Onlypolarstocksareshowinganincreasedpotential.[189]Regionsdependentonglacierwater,regionsthatarealreadydry,andsmallislandsareatincreasedriskofwaterstressduetoclimatechange.[190] Livelihoods Economicdamagesduetoclimatechangemaybesevereandthereisaprobabilityofdisastroustail-riskevents.[191]Climatechangehaslikelyalreadyincreasedglobaleconomicinequality,andthistrendisprojectedtocontinue.[192]Mostofthesevereimpactsareexpectedinsub-SaharanAfricaandSouth-EastAsia,whereexistingpovertyisalreadyexacerbated.[193]TheWorldBankestimatesthatclimatechangecoulddriveover120millionpeopleintopovertyby2030.[194]Currentinequalitiesbetweenmenandwomen,betweenrichandpoor,andbetweendifferentethnicitieshavebeenobservedtoworsenasaconsequenceofclimatevariabilityandclimatechange.[195]Anexpertelicitationconcludedthattheroleofclimatechangeinarmedconflicthasbeensmallcomparedtofactorssuchassocio-economicinequalityandstatecapabilities,butthatfuturewarmingwillbringincreasingrisks.[196] Low-lyingislandsandcoastalcommunitiesarethreatenedthroughhazardsposedbysealevelrise,suchasfloodingandpermanentsubmergence.[197]Thiscouldleadtostatelessnessforpopulationsinislandnations,suchastheMaldivesandTuvalu.[198]Insomeregions,riseintemperatureandhumiditymaybetoosevereforhumanstoadaptto.[199]Withworst-caseclimatechange,modelsprojectthatalmostone-thirdofhumanitymightliveinextremelyhotanduninhabitableclimates,similartothecurrentclimatefoundintheSahara.[200]Thesefactors,plusweatherextremes,candriveenvironmentalmigration,bothwithinandbetweencountries.[9]Displacementofpeopleisexpectedtoincreaseasaconsequenceofmorefrequentextremeweather,sealevelrise,andconflictarisingfromincreasedcompetitionovernaturalresources.Climatechangemayalsoincreasevulnerability,leadingto"trappedpopulations"whoarenotabletomoveduetoalackofresources.[201] Climatechangeimpactsonpeople Environmentalmigration.Sparserrainfallleadstodesertificationthatharmsagricultureandcandisplacepopulations.Shown:Telly,Mali.[202] Agriculturalchanges.Droughts,risingtemperatures,andextremeweathernegativelyimpactagriculture.Shown:Texas,US.[203] Tidalflooding.Sea-levelriseincreasesfloodinginlow-lyingcoastalregions.Shown:Venice,Italy.[204] Stormintensification.BangladeshafterCycloneSidrisanexampleofcatastrophicfloodingfromincreasedrainfall.[205] Heatwaveintensification.EventsliketheJune2019Europeanheatwavearebecomingmorecommon.[206] Responses Mitigation Mainarticle:Climatechangemitigation Scenariosofglobalgreenhousegasemissions.IfallcountriesachievetheircurrentParisAgreementpledges,averagewarmingby2100wouldstillsignificantlyexceedthemaximum2 °CtargetsetbytheAgreement. Climatechangecanbemitigatedbyreducinggreenhousegasemissionsandbyenhancingsinksthatabsorbgreenhousegasesfromtheatmosphere.[207]Inordertolimitglobalwarmingtolessthan1.5 °Cwithahighlikelihoodofsuccess,globalgreenhousegasemissionsneedstobenet-zeroby2050,orby2070witha2 °Ctarget.[135]Thisrequiresfar-reaching,systemicchangesonanunprecedentedscaleinenergy,land,cities,transport,buildings,andindustry.[208]TheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgrammeestimatesthatcountriesneedtotripletheirpledgesundertheParisAgreementwithinthenextdecadetolimitglobalwarmingto2 °C.Anevengreaterlevelofreductionisrequiredtomeetthe1.5 °Cgoal.[209]WithpledgesmadeundertheAgreementasofOctober2021,globalwarmingwouldstillhavea66%chanceofreachingabout2.7 °C(range:2.2–3.2 °C)bytheendofthecentury.[19] Althoughthereisnosinglepathwaytolimitglobalwarmingto1.5or2 °C,[210]mostscenariosandstrategiesseeamajorincreaseintheuseofrenewableenergyincombinationwithincreasedenergyefficiencymeasurestogeneratetheneededgreenhousegasreductions.[211]Toreducepressuresonecosystemsandenhancetheircarbonsequestrationcapabilities,changeswouldalsobenecessaryinagricultureandforestry,[212]suchaspreventingdeforestationandrestoringnaturalecosystemsbyreforestation.[213] Otherapproachestomitigatingclimatechangehaveahigherlevelofrisk.Scenariosthatlimitglobalwarmingto1.5 °Ctypicallyprojectthelarge-scaleuseofcarbondioxideremovalmethodsoverthe21stcentury.[214]Thereareconcerns,though,aboutover-relianceonthesetechnologies,andenvironmentalimpacts.[215]Solarradiationmanagement(SRM)isalsoapossiblesupplementtodeepreductionsinemissions.However,SRMwouldraisesignificantethicalandlegalissues,andtherisksarepoorlyunderstood.[216] Cleanenergy Mainarticles:SustainableenergyandSustainabletransport Coal,oil,andnaturalgasremaintheprimaryglobalenergysourcesevenasrenewableshavebegunrapidlyincreasing.[217] Economicsectorswithmoregreenhousegascontributionshaveagreaterstakeinclimatechangepolicies. Renewableenergyiskeytolimitingclimatechange.[218]Fossilfuelsaccountedfor80%oftheworld'senergyin2018.Theremainingsharewassplitbetweennuclearpowerandrenewables(includingsolarandwindpower,bioenergy,geothermalenergy,andhydropower).[219]Thatmixisprojectedtochangesignificantlyoverthenext30years.[211]Solarandwindhaveseensubstantialgrowthandprogressoverthelastfewyears.Solarpanelsandonshorewindarethecheapestformsofaddingnewpowergenerationcapacityinmostcountries.[220]Renewablesrepresented75%ofallnewelectricitygenerationinstalledin2019,nearlyallsolarandwind.[221]Meanwhile,nuclearpowershareremainsthesamebutcostsareincreasing.Nuclearpowergenerationisnowseveraltimesmoreexpensivepermegawatt-hourthanwindandsolar.[222] Toachievecarbonneutralityby2050,renewableenergywouldbecomethedominantformofelectricitygeneration,risingto85%ormoreby2050insomescenarios.Theuseofelectricityforheatingandtransport,wouldrisetothepointwhereelectricitybecomesthelargestformofenergy.[223]Investmentincoalwouldbeeliminatedandcoalusenearlyphasedoutby2050.[224] Intransport,scenariosenvisionsharpincreasesinthemarketshareofelectricvehicles,ofpublictransport[225][226][227][better source needed]andofaswitchtolow-carbonfuelforothertransportationmodeslikeshipping.[228]Heatingwouldbeincreasinglydecarbonisedwiththeuseoftechnologieslikeheatpumps.[229] Thereareobstaclestothecontinuedrapidgrowthofrenewables.Forsolarandwindpower,akeychallengeistheirintermittencyandseasonalvariability.Traditionally,hydrodamswithreservoirsandconventionalpowerplantshavebeenusedwhenvariableenergyproductionislow.Intermittencyisfurthercounteredbyexpandingbatterystorageandmatchingenergydemandandsupply.Long-distancetransmissioncansmoothvariabilityofrenewableoutputacrosswidergeographicareas.[218]Therecanbeenvironmentalandlanduseconcernswithlargesolarandwindprojects,[230]whilebioenergyisoftennotcarbon-neutralandmayhavenegativeconsequencesforfoodsecurity.[231]Hydropowergrowthhasbeenslowingandissettodeclinefurtherduetoconcernsaboutsocialandenvironmentalimpacts.[232] Low-carbonenergyimproveshumanhealthbyminimisingclimatechangeandhasthenear-termbenefitofreducingairpollutiondeaths,[233]whichwereestimatedat7millionannuallyin2016.[234]MeetingtheParisAgreementgoalsthatlimitwarmingtoa2 °Cincreasecouldsaveaboutamillionofthoselivesperyearby2050,whereaslimitingglobalwarmingto1.5 °Ccouldsavemillionsandsimultaneouslyincreaseenergysecurityandreducepoverty.[235] Energyefficiency Seealso:Efficientenergyuse Reducingenergydemandisanothermajoraspectofreducingemissions.[236]Iflessenergyisneeded,thereismoreflexibilityforcleanenergydevelopment.Italsomakesiteasiertomanagetheelectricitygrid,andminimisescarbon-intensiveinfrastructuredevelopment.[237]Majorincreasesinenergyefficiencyinvestmentwillberequiredtoachieveclimategoals,comparabletothelevelofinvestmentinrenewableenergy.[238]SeveralCOVID-19relatedchangesinenergyusepatterns,energyefficiencyinvestments,andfundinghavemadeforecastsforthisdecademoredifficultanduncertain.[239] Strategiestoreduceenergydemandvarybysector.Intransport,passengersandfreightcanswitchtomoreefficienttravelmodes,suchasbusesandtrains,oruseelectricvehicles.[240]Industrialstrategiestoreduceenergydemandincludeincreasingtheenergyefficiencyofheatingsystemsandmotors,designinglessenergy-intensiveproducts,andincreasingproductlifetimes.[241]Inthebuildingsectorthefocusisonbetterdesignofnewbuildings,andaimingforhigherlevelsofenergyefficiencyinretrofitting.[242]Theuseoftechnologieslikeheatpumpscanalsoincreasebuildingenergyefficiency.[243] Agricultureandindustry Seealso:SustainableagricultureandGreenindustrialpolicy Agricultureandforestryfaceatriplechallengeoflimitinggreenhousegasemissions,preventingthefurtherconversionofforeststoagriculturalland,andmeetingincreasesinworldfooddemand.[244]Asetofactionscouldreduceagricultureandforestry-basedemissionsbytwothirdsfrom2010levels.Theseincludereducinggrowthindemandforfoodandotheragriculturalproducts,increasinglandproductivity,protectingandrestoringforests,andreducinggreenhousegasemissionsfromagriculturalproduction.[245] Steelandcementproduction,responsibleforabout13%ofindustrialCO2emissions,presentparticularchallenges.Intheseindustries,carbon-intensivematerialssuchascokeandlimeplayanintegralroleintheproduction,sothatreducingCO2emissionsrequiresresearchintoalternativechemistries.[246] Carbonsequestration Mainarticles:Carboncaptureandstorage,Carbondioxideremoval,andCarbonsequestration MostCO2emissionshavebeenabsorbedbycarbonsinks,includingplantgrowth,soiluptake,andoceanuptake(2020GlobalCarbonBudget). NaturalcarbonsinkscanbeenhancedtosequestersignificantlylargeramountsofCO2beyondnaturallyoccurringlevels.[247]Reforestationandtreeplantingonnon-forestlandsareamongthemostmaturesequestrationtechniques,althoughthelatterraisesfoodsecurityconcerns.[248]Soilcarbonsequestrationandcoastalcarbonsequestrationarelessunderstoodoptions.[249]Thefeasibilityofland-basednegativeemissionsmethodsformitigationareuncertain;theIPCChasdescribedmitigationstrategiesbasedonthemasrisky.[250] WhereenergyproductionorCO2-intensiveheavyindustriescontinuetoproducewasteCO2,thegascanbecapturedandstoredinsteadofreleasedtotheatmosphere.Althoughitscurrentuseislimitedinscaleandexpensive,[251]carboncaptureandstorage(CCS)maybeabletoplayasignificantroleinlimitingCO2emissionsbymid-century.[252]Thistechnique,incombinationwithbio-energy(BECCS)canresultinnetnegativeemissions:CO2isdrawnfromtheatmosphere.[253]Itremainshighlyuncertainwhethercarbondioxideremovaltechniques,suchasBECCS,willbeabletoplayalargeroleinlimitingwarmingto1.5 °C.Policydecisionsthatrelyoncarbondioxideremovalincreasetheriskofglobalwarmingrisingbeyondinternationalgoals.[254] Adaptation Mainarticle:Climatechangeadaptation Adaptationis"theprocessofadjustmenttocurrentorexpectedchangesinclimateanditseffects".[255]Withoutadditionalmitigation,adaptationcannotaverttheriskof"severe,widespreadandirreversible"impacts.[256]Moresevereclimatechangerequiresmoretransformativeadaptation,whichcanbeprohibitivelyexpensive.[255]Thecapacityandpotentialforhumanstoadaptisunevenlydistributedacrossdifferentregionsandpopulations,anddevelopingcountriesgenerallyhaveless.[257]Thefirsttwodecadesofthe21stcenturysawanincreaseinadaptivecapacityinmostlow-andmiddle-incomecountrieswithimprovedaccesstobasicsanitationandelectricity,butprogressisslow.Manycountrieshaveimplementedadaptationpolicies.However,thereisaconsiderablegapbetweennecessaryandavailablefinance.[258] Adaptationtosealevelriseconsistsofavoidingat-riskareas,learningtolivewithincreasedfloodingandprotection.Ifthatfails,managedretreatmaybeneeded.[259]Thereareeconomicbarriersfortacklingdangerousheatimpact.Avoidingstrenuousworkorhavingairconditioningisnotpossibleforeverybody.[260]Inagriculture,adaptationoptionsincludeaswitchtomoresustainablediets,diversification,erosioncontrolandgeneticimprovementsforincreasedtolerancetoachangingclimate.[261]Insuranceallowsforrisk-sharing,butisoftendifficulttogetforpeopleonlowerincomes.[262]Education,migrationandearlywarningsystemscanreduceclimatevulnerability.[263] Ecosystemsadapttoclimatechange,aprocessthatcanbesupportedbyhumanintervention.Byincreasingconnectivitybetweenecosystems,speciescanmigratetomorefavourableclimateconditions.Speciescanalsobedirectlymoved.Protectionandrestorationofnaturalandsemi-naturalareashelpsbuildresilience,makingiteasierforecosystemstoadapt.Manyoftheactionsthatpromoteadaptationinecosystems,alsohelphumansadaptviaecosystem-basedadaptation.Forinstance,restorationofnaturalfireregimesmakescatastrophicfireslesslikely,andreduceshumanexposure.Givingriversmorespaceallowsformorewaterstorageinthenaturalsystem,reducingfloodrisk.Restoredforestactsasacarbonsink,butplantingtreesinunsuitableregionscanexacerbateclimateimpacts.[264] Therearesynergiesandtrade-offsbetweenadaptationandmitigation.Adaptationoftenoffershort-termbenefits,whereasmitigationhaslonger-termbenefits.[265]Increaseduseofairconditioningallowspeopletobettercopewithheat,butincreasesenergydemand.Compacturbandevelopmentmayleadtoreducedemissionsfromtransportandconstruction.Atthesametime,itmayincreasetheurbanheatislandeffect,leadingtohighertemperaturesandincreasedexposure.[266]Increasedfoodproductivityhaslargebenefitsforbothadaptationandmitigation.[267] Policiesandpolitics Mainarticle:Politicsofclimatechange TheClimateChangePerformanceIndexrankscountriesbygreenhousegasemissions(40%ofscore),renewableenergy(20%),energyuse(20%),andclimatepolicy(20%).  High  Medium  Low  VeryLow Countriesthataremostvulnerabletoclimatechangehavetypicallybeenresponsibleforasmallshareofglobalemissions.Thisraisesquestionsaboutjusticeandfairness.[268]Climatechangeisstronglylinkedtosustainabledevelopment.Limitingglobalwarmingmakesiteasiertoachievesustainabledevelopmentgoals,suchaseradicatingpovertyandreducinginequalities.TheconnectionisrecognisedinSustainableDevelopmentGoal13whichisto"[t]akeurgentactiontocombatclimatechangeanditsimpacts".[269]Thegoalsonfood,cleanwaterandecosystemprotectionhavesynergieswithclimatemitigation.[270] Thegeopoliticsofclimatechangeiscomplex.Ithasoftenbeenframedasafree-riderproblem,inwhichallcountriesbenefitfrommitigationdonebyothercountries,butindividualcountrieswouldlosefromswitchingtoalow-carboneconomythemselves.Thisframinghasbeenchallenged.Forinstance,thebenefitsofacoalphase-outtopublichealthandlocalenvironmentsexceedthecostsinalmostallregions.[271]Furthermore,netimportersoffossilfuelswineconomicallyfromswitchingtocleanenergy,causingnetexporterstofacestrandedassets:fossilfuelstheycannotsell.[272] Policyoptions Awiderangeofpolicies,regulations,andlawsarebeingusedtoreduceemissions.Asof2019,carbonpricingcoversabout20%ofglobalgreenhousegasemissions.[273]Carboncanbepricedwithcarbontaxesandemissionstradingsystems.[274]Directglobalfossilfuelsubsidiesreached$319billionin2017,and$5.2trillionwhenindirectcostssuchasairpollutionarepricedin.[275]Endingthesecancausea28%reductioninglobalcarbonemissionsanda46%reductioninairpollutiondeaths.[276]Subsidiescouldbeusedtosupportthetransitiontocleanenergyinstead.[277]Moredirectmethodstoreducegreenhousegasesincludevehicleefficiencystandards,renewablefuelstandards,andairpollutionregulationsonheavyindustry.[278]Severalcountriesrequireutilitiestoincreasetheshareofrenewablesinpowerproduction.[279] Policydesignedthroughthelensofclimatejusticetriestoaddresshumanrightsissuesandsocialinequality.Forinstance,wealthynationsresponsibleforthelargestshareofemissionswouldhavetopaypoorercountriestoadapt.[280]Astheuseoffossilfuelsisreduced,jobsinthesectorarebeinglost.Toachieveajusttransition,thesepeoplewouldneedtoberetrainedforotherjobs.Communitieswithmanyfossilfuelworkerswouldneedadditionalinvestments.[281] Internationalclimateagreements Furtherinformation:UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange Since2000,risingCO2emissionsinChinaandtherestofworldhavesurpassedtheoutputoftheUnitedStatesandEurope.[282] Perperson,theUnitedStatesgeneratesCO2atafarfasterratethanotherprimaryregions.[282] Nearlyallcountriesintheworldarepartiestothe1994UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC).[283]ThegoaloftheUNFCCCistopreventdangeroushumaninterferencewiththeclimatesystem.[284]Asstatedintheconvention,thisrequiresthatgreenhousegasconcentrationsarestabilisedintheatmosphereatalevelwhereecosystemscanadaptnaturallytoclimatechange,foodproductionisnotthreatened,andeconomicdevelopmentcanbesustained.[285]TheUNFCCCdoesnotitselfrestrictemissionsbutratherprovidesaframeworkforprotocolsthatdo.GlobalemissionshaverisensincetheUNFCCCwassigned.[75]Itsyearlyconferencesarethestageofglobalnegotiations.[286] The1997KyotoProtocolextendedtheUNFCCCandincludedlegallybindingcommitmentsformostdevelopedcountriestolimittheiremissions.[287]Duringthenegotiations,theG77(representingdevelopingcountries)pushedforamandaterequiringdevelopedcountriesto"[take]thelead"inreducingtheiremissions,[288]sincedevelopedcountriescontributedmosttotheaccumulationofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere.Per-capitaemissionswerealsostillrelativelylowindevelopingcountriesanddevelopingcountrieswouldneedtoemitmoretomeettheirdevelopmentneeds.[289] The2009CopenhagenAccordhasbeenwidelyportrayedasdisappointingbecauseofitslowgoals,andwasrejectedbypoorernationsincludingtheG77.[290]Associatedpartiesaimedtolimittheglobaltemperaturerisetobelow2 °C.[291]TheAccordsetthegoalofsending$100billionperyeartodevelopingcountriesformitigationandadaptationby2020,andproposedthefoundingoftheGreenClimateFund.[292]Asof2020[update],thefundhasfailedtoreachitsexpectedtarget,andrisksashrinkageinitsfunding.[293] In2015allUNcountriesnegotiatedtheParisAgreement,whichaimstokeepglobalwarmingwellbelow2.0 °Candcontainsanaspirationalgoalofkeepingwarmingunder1.5 °C.[294]TheagreementreplacedtheKyotoProtocol.UnlikeKyoto,nobindingemissiontargetsweresetintheParisAgreement.Instead,asetofprocedureswasmadebinding.Countrieshavetoregularlysetevermoreambitiousgoalsandreevaluatethesegoalseveryfiveyears.[295]TheParisAgreementrestatedthatdevelopingcountriesmustbefinanciallysupported.[296]AsofOctober2021[update],194statesandtheEuropeanUnionhavesignedthetreatyand191statesandtheEUhaveratifiedoraccededtotheagreement.[297] The1987MontrealProtocol,aninternationalagreementtostopemittingozone-depletinggases,mayhavebeenmoreeffectiveatcurbinggreenhousegasemissionsthantheKyotoProtocolspecificallydesignedtodoso.[298]The2016KigaliAmendmenttotheMontrealProtocolaimstoreducetheemissionsofhydrofluorocarbons,agroupofpowerfulgreenhousegaseswhichservedasareplacementforbannedozone-depletinggases.ThismadetheMontrealProtocolastrongeragreementagainstclimatechange.[299] Nationalresponses In2019,theUnitedKingdomparliamentbecamethefirstnationalgovernmenttodeclareaclimateemergency.[300]Othercountriesandjurisdictionsfollowedsuit.[301]Thatsameyear,theEuropeanParliamentdeclareda"climateandenvironmentalemergency".[302]TheEuropeanCommissionpresenteditsEuropeanGreenDealwiththegoalofmakingtheEUcarbon-neutralby2050.[303]MajorcountriesinAsiahavemadesimilarpledges:SouthKoreaandJapanhavecommittedtobecomecarbon-neutralby2050,andChinaby2060.[304]In2021,theEuropeanCommissionreleasedits“Fitfor55”legislationpackage,whichcontainsguidelinesforthecarindustry;allnewcarsontheEuropeanmarketmustbezero-emissionvehiclesfrom2035.[305]WhileIndiahasstrongincentivesforrenewables,italsoplansasignificantexpansionofcoalinthecountry.[306] Asof2021,basedoninformationfrom48nationalclimateplans,whichrepresent40%ofthepartiestotheParisAgreement,estimatedtotalgreenhousegasemissionswillbe0.5%lowercomparedto2010levels,belowthe45%or25%reductiongoalstolimitglobalwarmingto1.5 °Cor2 °C,respectively.[307] Scientificconsensusandsociety Scientificconsensus Mainarticle:Scientificconsensusonclimatechange Academicstudiesofscientificagreementonhuman-causedglobalwarmingamongclimateexpertsshowconsensustobenearlyunanimous,[308][309]andhavereflectedthatthelevelofconsensuscorrelateswithexpertiseinclimatescience.[310] Thereisanear-completescientificconsensusthattheclimateiswarmingandthatthisiscausedbyhumanactivities.Agreementinrecentliteraturereachedover99%.[311][309]Oldersurveysfound90%to100%ofclimatescientistsagreeingonhumanity'sroleincausingclimatechange,basedontheexactquestionandwhoresponded.[312]Noscientificbodyofnationalorinternationalstandingdisagreeswiththisview.[313]Consensushasfurtherdevelopedthatsomeformofactionshouldbetakentoprotectpeopleagainsttheimpactsofclimatechange.Nationalscienceacademieshavecalledonworldleaderstocutglobalemissions.[314] Scientificdiscussiontakesplaceinjournalarticlesthatarepeer-reviewed.ScientistsassesstheseeveryfewyearsintheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangereports.[315]The2021IPCCAssessmentReportstatedthatitis"unequivocal"thatclimatechangeiscausedbyhumans.[309] Publicawareness Furtherinformation:Climatecommunication,Mediacoverageofclimatechange,andPublicopiniononclimatechange Climatechangecametointernationalpublicattentioninthelate1980s.[316]Duetoconfusingmediacoverageintheearly1990s,peopleoftenconfoundedclimatechangewithotherenvironmentalissueslikeozonedepletion.[317]Inpopularculture,thefirstmovietoreachamasspubliconthetopicwasTheDayAfterTomorrowin2004,followedafewyearslaterbytheAlGoredocumentaryAnInconvenientTruth.Books,storiesandfilmsaboutclimatechangefallunderthegenreofclimatefiction.[316] Significantregional,gender,ageandpoliticaldifferencesexistinbothpublicconcernfor,andunderstandingof,climatechange.Morehighlyeducatedpeople,andinsomecountries,womenandyoungerpeople,weremorelikelytoseeclimatechangeasaseriousthreat.[318]Partisangapsalsoexistinmanycountries,[319]andcountrieswithhighCO2emissionstendtobelessconcerned.[320]Viewsoncausesofclimatechangevarywidelybetweencountries.[321]Concernhasincreasedovertime,[319]tothepointwhereamajorityofcitizensinmanycountriesnowexpressahighlevelofworryaboutclimatechange,orviewitasaglobalemergency.[322]Higherlevelsofworryareassociatedwithstrongerpublicsupportforpoliciesthataddressclimatechange.[323] Denialandmisinformation Furtherinformation:Globalwarmingcontroversy,Fossilfuelslobby,Climatechangedenial,andGlobalwarmingconspiracytheory Datahasbeencherrypickedfromshortperiodstofalselyassertthatglobaltemperaturesarenotrising.Bluetrendlinesshowshortperiodsthatmasklonger-termwarmingtrends(redtrendlines).Bluedotsshowtheso-calledglobalwarminghiatus.[324] Publicdebateaboutclimatechangehasbeenstronglyaffectedbyclimatechangedenialandmisinformation,whichoriginatedintheUnitedStatesandhassincespreadtoothercountries,particularlyCanadaandAustralia.Theactorsbehindclimatechangedenialformawell-fundedandrelativelycoordinatedcoalitionoffossilfuelcompanies,industrygroups,conservativethinktanks,andcontrarianscientists.[325]Likethetobaccoindustrybefore,themainstrategyofthesegroupshasbeentomanufacturedoubtaboutscientificdataandresults.[326]Manywhodeny,dismiss,orholdunwarranteddoubtaboutthescientificconsensusonanthropogenicclimatechangearelabelledas"climatechangeskeptics",whichseveralscientistshavenotedisamisnomer.[327] Therearedifferentvariantsofclimatedenial:somedenythatwarmingtakesplaceatall,someacknowledgewarmingbutattributeittonaturalinfluences,andsomeminimisethenegativeimpactsofclimatechange.[328]Manufacturinguncertaintyaboutthesciencelaterdevelopedintoamanufacturedcontroversy:creatingthebeliefthatthereissignificantuncertaintyaboutclimatechangewithinthescientificcommunityinordertodelaypolicychanges.[329]Strategiestopromotetheseideasincludecriticismofscientificinstitutions,[330]andquestioningthemotivesofindividualscientists.[328]Anechochamberofclimate-denyingblogsandmediahasfurtherfomentedmisunderstandingofclimatechange.[331] Protestsandlawsuits Mainarticles:ClimatemovementandClimatechangelitigation Canadianresidentsprotestingagainstglobalwarming Climateprotestshaveriseninpopularityinthe2010s.Theseprotestsdemandthatpoliticalleaderstakeactiontopreventclimatechange.Theycantaketheformofpublicdemonstrations,fossilfueldivestment,lawsuitsandotheractivities.[332]ProminentdemonstrationsincludetheSchoolStrikeforClimate.Inthisinitiative,youngpeopleacrosstheglobehavebeenprotestingsince2018byskippingschoolonFridays,inspiredbySwedishteenagerGretaThunberg.[333]MasscivildisobedienceactionsbygroupslikeExtinctionRebellionhaveprotestedbydisruptingroadsandpublictransport.[334]Litigationisincreasinglyusedasatooltostrengthenclimateactionfrompublicinstitutionsandcompanies.Activistsalsoinitiatelawsuitswhichtargetgovernmentsanddemandthattheytakeambitiousactionorenforceexistinglawsonclimatechange.[335]Lawsuitsagainstfossil-fuelcompaniesgenerallyseekcompensationforlossanddamage.[336] Discovery Forbroadercoverageofthistopic,seeHistoryofclimatechangescience. Tyndall'sratiospectrophotometer(drawingfrom1861)measuredhowmuchinfraredradiationwasabsorbedandemittedbyvariousgasesfillingitscentraltube. Inthe1820s,JosephFourierproposedthegreenhouseeffecttoexplainwhyEarth'stemperaturewashigherthanthesun'senergyalonecouldexplain.Earth'satmosphereistransparenttosunlight,sosunlightreachesthesurfacewhereitisconvertedtoheat.However,theatmosphereisnottransparenttoheatradiatingfromthesurface,andcapturessomeofthatheatwhichwarmstheplanet.[337]In1856EuniceNewtonFootedemonstratedthatthewarmingeffectofthesunisgreaterforairwithwatervapourthanfordryair,andtheeffectisevengreaterwithcarbondioxide.Sheconcludedthat"Anatmosphereofthatgaswouldgivetoourearthahightemperature..."[338][339]Startingin1859,[340]JohnTyndallestablishedthatnitrogenandoxygen—togethertotalling99%ofdryair—aretransparenttoradiatedheat.However,watervapourandsomegases(inparticularmethaneandcarbondioxide)absorbradiatedheatandre-radiatethatheatwithintheatmosphere.Tyndallproposedthatchangesintheconcentrationsofthesegasesmayhavecausedclimaticchangesinthepast,includingiceages.[341] SvanteArrheniusnotedthatwatervapourinaircontinuouslyvaried,buttheCO2concentrationinairwasinfluencedbylong-termgeologicalprocesses.Attheendofaniceage,warmingfromincreasedCO2levelswouldincreasetheamountofwatervapour,amplifyingwarminginafeedbackloop.In1896,hepublishedthefirstclimatemodelofitskind,showingthathalvingofCO2levelscouldhaveproducedthedropintemperatureinitiatingtheiceage.ArrheniuscalculatedthetemperatureincreaseexpectedfromdoublingCO2tobearound5–6 °C.[342]OtherscientistswereinitiallyscepticalandbelievedthegreenhouseeffecttobesaturatedsothataddingmoreCO2wouldmakenodifference.Theythoughtclimatewouldbeself-regulating.[343]From1938onwardsGuyStewartCallendarpublishedevidencethatclimatewaswarmingandCO2levelsrising,[344]buthiscalculationsmetthesameobjections.[343] Inthe1950s,GilbertPlasscreatedadetailedcomputermodelthatincludeddifferentatmosphericlayersandtheinfraredspectrum.ThismodelpredictedthatincreasingCO2levelswouldcausewarming.Aroundthesametime,HansSuessfoundevidencethatCO2levelshadbeenrising,andRogerRevelleshowedthattheoceanswouldnotabsorbtheincrease.ThetwoscientistssubsequentlyhelpedCharlesKeelingtobeginarecordofcontinuedincrease,whichhasbeentermedthe"KeelingCurve".[343]Scientistsalertedthepublic,[345]andthedangerswerehighlightedatJamesHansen's1988Congressionaltestimony.[23]TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,setupin1988toprovideformaladvicetotheworld'sgovernments,spurredinterdisciplinaryresearch.[346] Seealso Climatechangeportal Scienceportal Environmentportal 2020sinenvironmentalhistory Anthropocene–proposednewgeologicaltimeintervalinwhichhumansarehavingsignificantgeologicalimpact Globalcooling–minorityviewheldbyscientistsinthe1970sthatimminentcoolingoftheEarthwouldtakeplace References Explanatorynotes ^Thisdependsonhowglobaltemperatureisdefined.Thereisasmalldifferencebetweenairandsurfacetemperatures.[134] Notes ^IPCCAR6WG12021 ^IPCCSR15Ch12018,p. 54:Theseglobal-levelratesofhuman-drivenchangefarexceedtheratesofchangedrivenbygeophysicalorbiosphereforcesthathavealteredtheEarthSystemtrajectoryinthepast… ^abOurWorldinData,18September2020 ^IPCCAR6WG1TechnicalSummary2021,p. 59:Thecombinedeffectofallclimatefeedbackprocessesistoamplifytheclimateresponsetoforcing... ^IPCCSRCCL2019,p. 7:Sincethepre-industrialperiod,thelandsurfaceairtemperaturehasrisennearlytwiceasmuchastheglobalaveragetemperature(highconfidence).Climatechange...contributedtodesertificationandlanddegradationinmanyregions(highconfidence).;IPCCSRCCL2019,p. 45:Climatechangeisplayinganincreasingroleindeterminingwildfireregimesalongsidehumanactivity(mediumconfidence),withfutureclimatevariabilityexpectedtoenhancetheriskandseverityofwildfiresinmanybiomessuchastropicalrainforests(highconfidence). ^IPCCSROCC2019,p. 16:Overthelastdecades,globalwarminghasledtowidespreadshrinkingofthecryosphere,withmasslossfromicesheetsandglaciers(veryhighconfidence),reductionsinsnowcover(highconfidence)andArcticseaiceextentandthickness(veryhighconfidence),andincreasedpermafrosttemperature(veryhighconfidence). ^abUSGCRPChapter92017,p. 260. ^EPA(19January2017)."ClimateImpactsonEcosystems".Archivedfromtheoriginalon27January2018.Retrieved5February2019.Mountainandarcticecosystemsandspeciesareparticularlysensitivetoclimatechange...Asoceantemperatureswarmandtheacidityoftheoceanincreases,bleachingandcoraldie-offsarelikelytobecomemorefrequent. ^abCattaneoetal.2019;UNEnvironment,25October2018. ^IPCCAR5SYR2014,pp. 13–16;WHO,Nov2015:"Climatechangeisthegreatestthreattoglobalhealthinthe21stcentury.Healthprofessionalshaveadutyofcaretocurrentandfuturegenerations.Youareonthefrontlineinprotectingpeoplefromclimateimpacts–frommoreheat-wavesandotherextremeweatherevents;fromoutbreaksofinfectiousdiseasessuchasmalaria,dengueandcholera;fromtheeffectsofmalnutrition;aswellastreatingpeoplethatareaffectedbycancer,respiratory,cardiovascularandothernon-communicablediseasescausedbyenvironmentalpollution." ^IPCCSR15Ch12018,p. 64:SustainednetzeroanthropogenicemissionsofCO2anddecliningnetanthropogenicnon-CO2radiativeforcingoveramulti-decadeperiodwouldhaltanthropogenicglobalwarmingoverthatperiod,althoughitwouldnothaltsealevelriseormanyotheraspectsofclimatesystemadjustment. ^abIPCCSR15SummaryforPolicymakers2018,p. 7 ^IPCCAR6WG1TechnicalSummary2021,p. 71 ^abNASA,MitigationandAdaptation2020 ^UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme2019,p. xxiii,TableES.3;Teske,ed.2019,p. xxvii,Fig.5. ^UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme2019,TableES.3&p.49;NREL2017,pp. vi,12 ^IPCCSRCCLSummaryforPolicymakers2019,p. 18 ^IPCCAR5SYR2014,p. 17,SPM3.2 ^abUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme2021,p. 36:"AcontinuationoftheeffortimpliedbythelatestunconditionalNDCsandannouncedpledgesisatpresentestimatedtoresultinwarmingofabout2.7°C(range:2.2–3.2°C)witha66percentchance." ^IPCCSR15Ch22018,pp. 95–96:Inmodelpathwayswithnoorlimitedovershootof1.5°C,globalnetanthropogenicCO2emissionsdeclinebyabout45%from2010levelsby2030(40–60%interquartilerange),reachingnetzeroaround2050(2045–2055interquartilerange);IPCCSR152018,p. 17,SPMC.3:Allpathwaysthatlimitglobalwarmingto1.5°Cwithlimitedornoovershootprojecttheuseofcarbondioxideremoval(CDR)ontheorderof100–1000GtCO2overthe21stcentury.CDRwouldbeusedtocompensateforresidualemissionsand,inmostcases,achievenetnegativeemissionstoreturnglobalwarmingto1.5°Cfollowingapeak(highconfidence).CDRdeploymentofseveralhundredsofGtCO2issubjecttomultiplefeasibilityandsustainabilityconstraints(highconfidence).;Rogeljetal.2015;Hilaireetal.2019 ^Trenberth&Fasullo2016 ^NASA,5December2008. ^abWeart"ThePublicandClimateChange:TheSummerof1988","Newsreportersgaveonlyalittleattention ...". ^Jooetal.2015. ^NOAA,17June2015:"whenscientistsorpublicleaderstalkaboutglobalwarmingthesedays,theyalmostalwaysmeanhuman-causedwarming";IPCCAR5SYRGlossary2014,p. 120:"Climatechangereferstoachangeinthestateoftheclimatethatcanbeidentified(e.g.,byusingstatisticaltests)bychangesinthemeanand/orthevariabilityofitspropertiesandthatpersistsforanextendedperiod,typicallydecadesorlonger.Climatechangemaybeduetonaturalinternalprocessesorexternalforcingssuchasmodulationsofthesolarcycles,volcaniceruptionsandpersistentanthropogenicchangesinthecompositionoftheatmosphereorinlanduse." ^NASA,7July2020;Shaftel2016:" 'Climatechange'and'globalwarming'areoftenusedinterchangeablybuthavedistinctmeanings. ...GlobalwarmingreferstotheupwardtemperaturetrendacrosstheentireEarthsincetheearly20thcentury ...Climatechangereferstoabroadrangeofglobalphenomena ...[which]includetheincreasedtemperaturetrendsdescribedbyglobalwarming.";AssociatedPress,22September2015:"Thetermsglobalwarmingandclimatechangecanbeusedinterchangeably.Climatechangeismoreaccuratescientificallytodescribethevariouseffectsofgreenhousegasesontheworldbecauseitincludesextremeweather,stormsandchangesinrainfallpatterns,oceanacidificationandsealevel.". ^Hodder&Martin2009;BBCScienceFocusMagazine,3February2020 ^TheGuardian,17May2019;BBCScienceFocusMagazine,3February2020 ^USAToday,21November2019. ^OxfordLanguages2019 ^Neukometal.2019. ^ab"GlobalAnnualMeanSurfaceAirTemperatureChange".NASA.Retrieved23February2020. ^EPA2016:TheU.S.GlobalChangeResearchProgram,theNationalAcademyofSciences,andtheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)haveeachindependentlyconcludedthatwarmingoftheclimatesysteminrecentdecadesis"unequivocal".Thisconclusionisnotdrawnfromanyonesourceofdatabutisbasedonmultiplelinesofevidence,includingthreeworldwidetemperaturedatasetsshowingnearlyidenticalwarmingtrendsaswellasnumerousotherindependentindicatorsofglobalwarming(e.g.risingsealevels,shrinkingArcticseaice). ^IPCCAR6WG1SummaryforPolicymakers2021,p. SPM-5 ^IPCCSR15Ch12018,p. 81. ^WMO2021,p. 6. ^IPCCAR5WG1Ch22013,p. 162. ^IPCCSR15Ch12018,p. 57:Thisreportadoptsthe51-yearreferenceperiod,1850–1900inclusive,assessedasanapproximationofpre-industriallevelsinAR5 ...Temperaturesroseby0.0 °C–0.2 °Cfrom1720–1800to1850–1900;Hawkinsetal.2017,p. 1844 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