Climate Change and Global Warming Introduction

Global warming and climate change refer to an increase in average global temperatures. Natural events and human activities are believed to be contributing ... Mainmenu:MenuHomeAboutIssuesWorldNewsSupportContactYouarehere:HomeIssuesArticlesClimateChangeandGlobalWarmingIntroductionClimateChangeandGlobalWarmingIntroductionAuthorandPageinformationbyAnupShahThispagelastupdatedSunday,February01,2015Thispage:https://www.globalissues.org/article/233/climate-change-and-global-warming-introduction.Toprintallinformation(e.g.expandedsidenotes,showsalternativelinks),usetheprintversion:https://www.globalissues.org/print/article/233Onthispage:WhatisGlobalWarmingandClimateChange?WhatarethemainindicatorsofClimateChange?WhatistheGreenhouseEffect?TheGreenhouseeffectisnatural.Whatdowehavetodowithit?Theclimatehasalwaysvariedinthepast.Howisthisanydifferent?Doesn’trecentrecordcoldweatherdisproveGlobalWarming?Hasglobalwarmingpausedduetorecentsurfacetemperaturedrops?Mostglobalwarmingisgoingintotheoceans2014warmestyearsincerecordsbeganWhataretheimpactsofGlobalWarming?RapidchangesinglobaltemperatureSmallaverageglobaltemperaturechangecanhaveabigimpactExtremeWeatherPatternsSuper-stormsExtremeweathereventsontheincreaseEcosystemImpactsRisingSeaLevelsIncreasingoceanacidificationIncreaseinPestsandDiseaseFailingAgriculturalOutput;IncreaseinWorldHungerAgricultureandlivelihoodsarealreadybeingaffectedWomenfacebruntofclimatechangeimpactsGreenhousegasesandemissionsresultingfromhumanactivityDifferencesinGreenhouseGasEmissionAroundtheWorldTheUnitedStatesistheWorld’sLargestEmitterofGreenhouseGasesPerCapitaThepreviously15-memberEuropeanUnionisalsolargeEmitterStallingKyotoProtocolGetsPushbyRussiaCanadapullsoutofKyotoRichnationemissionshavebeenrisingRichNationsHaveOutsourcedTheirCarbonEmissionsDevelopingCountriesAffectedMostGreenhousegasemissionscontinuetoriseSkepticismonGlobalWarmingorThatitcanbehuman-inducedBushAdministrationAccusedofSilencingitsownClimateScientistsManySourcesOfGreenhouseGasesBeingDiscoveredWarminghappeningmorequicklythanpredictedWhatisGlobalWarmingandClimateChange?Globalwarmingandclimatechangerefertoanincreaseinaverageglobaltemperatures.Naturaleventsandhumanactivitiesarebelievedtobecontributingtoanincreaseinaverageglobaltemperatures.ThisiscausedprimarilybyincreasesingreenhousegasessuchasCarbonDioxide(CO2).Awarmingplanetthusleadstoachangeinclimatewhichcanaffectweatherinvariousways,asdiscussedfurtherbelow.WhatarethemainindicatorsofClimateChange?AsexplainedbytheUSagency,theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),thereare7indicatorsthatwouldbeexpectedtoincreaseinawarmingworld(andtheyare),and3indicatorswouldbeexpectedtodecrease(andtheyare):Tenindicatorsforawarmingworld,PastDecadeWarmestonRecordAccordingtoScientistsin48Countries,NOAA,July28,2010WhatistheGreenhouseEffect?Thetermgreenhouseisusedinconjunctionwiththephenomenonknownasthegreenhouseeffect.Energyfromthesundrivestheearth’sweatherandclimate,andheatstheearth’ssurface;Inturn,theearthradiatesenergybackintospace;Someatmosphericgases(watervapor,carbondioxide,andothergases)trapsomeoftheoutgoingenergy,retainingheatsomewhatliketheglasspanelsofagreenhouse;Thesegasesarethereforeknownasgreenhousegases;ThegreenhouseeffectistheriseintemperatureonEarthascertaingasesintheatmospheretrapenergy.Imagesource:GreenhouseEffect,Wikipedia(Linkincludesdetailedexplanationoftheaboveimage).Note,imageaboveexpressesenergyexchangesinwattspersquaremeter(W/m2)Sixmaingreenhousegasesarecarbondioxide(CO2),methane(CH4)(whichis20timesaspotentagreenhousegasascarbondioxide)andnitrousoxide(N2O),plusthreefluorinatedindustrialgases:hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),perfluorocarbons(PFCs)andsulphurhexafluoride(SF6).Watervaporisalsoconsideredagreenhousegas.TheGreenhouseeffectisnatural.Whatdowehavetodowithit?Manyofthesegreenhousegasesareactuallylife-enabling,forwithoutthem,heatwouldescapebackintospaceandtheEarth’saveragetemperaturewouldbealotcolder.However,ifthegreenhouseeffectbecomesstronger,thenmoreheatgetstrappedthanneeded,andtheEarthmightbecomelesshabitableforhumans,plantsandanimals.Carbondioxide,thoughnotthemostpotentofgreenhousegases,isthemostsignificantone.Humanactivityhascausedanimbalanceinthenaturalcycleofthegreenhouseeffectandrelatedprocesses.NASA’sEarthObservatoryisworthquotingtheeffecthumanactivityishavingonthenaturalcarboncycle,forexample:InadditiontothenaturalfluxesofcarbonthroughtheEarthsystem,anthropogenic(human)activities,particularlyfossilfuelburninganddeforestation,arealsoreleasingcarbondioxideintotheatmosphere.WhenweminecoalandextractoilfromtheEarth’scrust,andthenburnthesefossilfuelsfortransportation,heating,cooking,electricity,andmanufacturing,weareeffectivelymovingcarbonmorerapidlyintotheatmospherethanisbeingremovednaturallythroughthesedimentationofcarbon,ultimatelycausingatmosphericcarbondioxideconcentrationstoincrease.Also,byclearingforeststosupportagriculture,wearetransferringcarbonfromlivingbiomassintotheatmosphere(drywoodisabout50percentcarbon).Theresultisthathumansareaddingever-increasingamountsofextracarbondioxideintotheatmosphere.Becauseofthis,atmosphericcarbondioxideconcentrationsarehighertodaythantheyhavebeenoverthelasthalf-millionyearsorlonger.TheCarbonCycle;TheHumanRole,EarthObservatory,NASAAnotherwayoflookingatthisiswithasimpleanalogy:considersaltandhumanhealth:Asmallamountofsaltisessentialforhumanlife;Slightlymoresaltinourdietoftenmakesfoodtastier;Toomuchsaltcanbeharmfultoourhealth.Inasimilarway,greenhousegasesareessentialforourplanet;theplanetmaybeabletodealwithslightlyincreasedlevelsofsuchgases,buttoomuchwillaffectthehealthofthewholeplanet. Imagesource:NASA. (Note,valuesshownrepresentCarbonGigatonsbeingabsorbedandreleased)Theotherdifferencebetweenthenaturalcarboncycleandhuman-inducedclimatechangeisthatthelatterisrapid.Thismeansthatecosystemshavelesschanceofadaptingtothechangesthatwillresultandsotheeffectsfeltwillbeworseandmoredramaticitthingscontinuealongthecurrenttrajectory.Theclimatehasalwaysvariedinthepast.Howisthisanydifferent?ThroughoutEarth’shistorytheclimatehasvaried,sometimesconsiderably.Pastwarmingdoesnotautomaticallymeanthattoday’swarmingisthereforealsonatural.Recentwarminghasbeenshowntobeduetohumanindustrializationprocesses.JohnCook,writingthepopularSkepticalScienceblog,summarizesthekeyindicatorsofahumanfingerprintonclimatechange:JohnCook,10IndicatorsofaHumanFingerprintonClimateChange,SkepticalScience,July30,2010Thisgraph,basedonthecomparisonofatmosphericsamplescontainedinicecoresandmorerecentdirectmeasurements,providesevidencethatatmosphericCO2hasincreasedsincetheIndustrialRevolution: (Source:NOAA)via:ClimateChange:Howdoweknow?NASA,accessedOctober27,2009 TheabovecovershundredsofthousandsofyearsandshowshowatmosphericCO2levelshavedramaticallyincreasedinrecentyears.Ifwezoominonjustthepast250years,weseethefollowing:GlobalCO2emissions,1751–2010,CarbonDioxideInformationAnalysisCenter(CDIAC),2013,lastaccessedFebruary1,2015.DOI:10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2013NASA’sGoddardInstituteofSpaceStudies(GISS)tracksatmosphericglobaltemperatureclimatetrends.Asenvironmentalengineer,DKellyO’Day,explainedonProcessingTrends.com(linknolongeravailable):Tofacilitateassessmentsoflongtermtrends,climatologistscomparethemeanforabaseperiodwiththeannualmean.Differencesbetweentheannualmeanandbaselinemeanarecalledanomalies.GISSusesthe1951-1980periodfortheirbaselineperiod.Theyusethedifferencebetweentheannualmeanandthebaselinemeantodeterminetheglobaltemperatureanomalyfortheyear.O’Dayoriginallyproducedachartshowingglobaltemperatureanomaliesbetween1800and2006usingdatafromNASA.Iupdatedthechartheprovidedtoincluderecentlyupdateddataupto2014:Sources:GISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysis,NASA,accessedJanuary25,2015;Globaltemperature,1800-2006,ProcessTrends.com,accessedOctober27,2009(linknolongeravailable)Inthe1880-1935period,thetemperatureanomalywasconsistentlynegative.Incontrast,thesince1980theanomalyhasbeenconsistentlypositive.The1909temperatureanomaly(-0.47oC)wasthelowestyearonrecord.Since1909,globaltemperaturehaswarmed,withthemostrecentyearsshowingthehighestanomaliesof+0.6oCinthepast120years.ANASA’sGISSanimationalsoshowshowmostpartsoftheworldhaveexperiencedthiswarming,recently:Globaltemperatureshavewarmedsignificantlysince1880,thebeginningofwhatscientistscallthemodernrecord.Atthistime,thecoverageprovidedbyweatherstationsallowedforessentiallyglobaltemperaturedata.Asgreenhousegasemissionsfromenergyproduction,industryandvehicleshaveincreased,temperatureshaveclimbed,mostnotablysincethelate1970s.Source:NASAFinds2014WarmestYearinModernRecord,NASAGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies,January16,2015And,asSirDavidAttenboroughexplains,naturalvariabilityalonedoesnotexplainrecenttemperaturerise:SirDavidAttenborough:TheTruthAboutClimateChange,October22,2006 Aswellasthelinksabove,seealsoSkepticalScience,which,whileexaminingtheargumentsofglobalwarmingskepticism,providesinformationoncausesofanthropogenicglobalwarming.Doesn’trecentrecordcoldweatherdisproveGlobalWarming?Indifferentpartsoftheworld,therehavebeenvariousweathereventsthatatfirstthoughtwouldquestionglobalwarming.Forexample,someregionshaveexperiencedextremelycoldwinters(sometimesrecord-breaking),whileothershaveexperiencedheavyrain,etc.Theconfusionthatsometimesarisesisthedifferencebetweenclimatechangeandweatherpatterns.Weatherpatternsdescribeshorttermevents,whileclimatechangeisalongerprocessthataffectstheweather.Awarmingplanetisactuallyconsistentwithincreasingcold,increasingrainandotherextremes,asanoverallwarmerplanetchangesweatherpatternseverywhereatalltimesoftheyear.Togetanideaofhowlookingatshorttermchangesonlycanleadtoaconclusionthatglobalwarminghasstopped,ordoesn’texist,seeAldenGriffith’shasglobalwarmingstopped?(Asanaside,thosecryingfoulofglobalwarmingclaimswhengoingthroughextremelycoldweatherinEuropeforexamplein2010,laterfoundtheirsummerstobefullofheatwaves.Thepointhereisthataspecificshortperiodsuchasacoldwinter—orevenahotsummer—isnotproofalonethatglobalwarminghasstopped(orincreased);shorttermvariabilitycanmasklongertermtrends.)Thismeans,forexample,increasingtemperaturescanactuallymeanmoresnowfall—atleastuntilitbecomestoowarmforsignificantsnowfalltohappen.Theadditionalconcern,asmeteorologyprofessorScottMandiaexplains,itcantakedecadesfortheclimatetemperaturestoincreaseinresponsetoincreasedgreenhousegasemissions.Soupuntilnow,perhapsithasbeeneasierforskepticstodenyclimatechangeisoccurringorthathumansareresponsible.Hasglobalwarmingpausedduetorecentsurfacetemperaturedrops?AstheIPCC’sfifthmajorreportdrawstoaconclusionin2013itnotesthatscientistshaveincreasedtheircertaintyofhuman-inducedwarmingto95%.Itwasextremelylikelythathumaninfluencehasbeenthedominantcauseoftheobservedwarmingsincethemid-20thcentury,assummarizedbytheIPCC.Astheirfifthreportstartedtocomeout,anumberofclimateskepticsandmediaoutletswerearguingthattheslowdownshowninsurfacetemperaturesinrecentyearsprovedglobalwarminghadstoppedorpaused.Yet,thisslowdownwasinsurfacetemperaturesonlyeventhoughtheoveralltrend(usingamorelongerperiodwhichismorevalidinclimatechangeanalysis)showedanincreaseintemperatures.Twosimplegraphshelpillustratethis: Source: ClimateChange2013:ThePhysicalScienceBasis ,IPCCWorkingGroupIcontributiontotheIPCCFifthAssessmentReport,September2013.Chapter3.[Note,graphmodifiedtoaddthezoomedinportionhighlightingtheareaskepticsusetoclaimclimatechangehasstopped.] ThenextgraphisananimationfromSkepticalScienceshowinghowtime-framestointerpretclimatedataissignificant: Source:TheEscalator,SkepticalScience,lastaccessedOctober19,2013 ForfurtherinformationontheaboveseealsoDoestheglobalwarmingpausemeanwhatyouthinkitmeans?,fromSkepticalScience.MostglobalwarmingisgoingintotheoceansAsthisinfographicshows,mostofthewarmingisgoingintotheoceans: Source:JohnCook,Infographiconwhereglobalwarmingisgoing,SkepticalScience.com,January20,2011(furthernotesonthesourcedataused) AsJohnCook,creatorofthegraphicabovesays(seeabovelink),Justasittakestimeforacupofcoffeetoreleaseheatintotheair,sotoittakestimefortheoceantoreleaseitsheatintotheatmosphere..TheimplicationsofthisisfurtherexplainedwithInterPressService’sfreezeranalogy:Theworld’snorthernfreezerisonrapiddefrostaslargevolumesofwarmwaterarepouringintotheArcticOcean,speedingthemeltofseaice.Indeed,asthischartalsoshows,thewarmingintheoceanshasbeenoccurringforquitesometime: Source:JohnCook,TheEarthcontinuestobuildupheat,SkepticalScience,October12,2011 OneofJohnBruno’scolleagues,OveHoegh-Guldberg,talksabouttheimpactclimatechangewillhaveonoceanecosystems.AsummaryofthevideoheresaysthatOveHoegh-GuldbergNCSEtalkonclimatechangeimpactsonoceanecosystems,ClimateShifts,January21,2011. Rapidlyrisinggreenhousegasconcentrationsaredrivingoceansystemstowardconditionsnotseenformillionsofyears,withanassociatedriskoffundamentalandirreversibleecologicaltransformation.Changesinbiologicalfunctionintheoceancausedbyanthropogenicclimatechangegofarbeyonddeath,extinctionsandhabitatloss:fundamentalprocessesarebeingaltered,communityassemblagesarebeingreorganizedandecologicalsurprisesarelikely.D.SalmonsalsohasapostatSkepticalSciencethatexplainstheimpactofwarmingArctic’srelationtotheverycoldrecentwintersfurther,usingthefollowingNASAmap: Source:GISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysis,NASAGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies,accessedJanuary30,2011 AsSalmonsexplains,theArctichasbeenheatingup,andstudiesshowthatishappeningattwotothreetimestheglobalaverage.ThisrisingtemperatureintheArctichasservedtoreducetheregion’sfloatingicelayerbymorethan20%.Andasyouwouldexpect,whenthereflectiveiceandsnowlayerisstrippedaway,itleavesadarkbluesea.Now,whatdoestheeffectofthedarkblueseabeingexposedhaveontheArcticarea?Well,theiceandsnowlayerreflectsthemajorityofthesun’sraysharmlesslybackintospace.Butthedarkblueoftheexposedseaabsorbstherays,aidingtheheatingprocess.D.Salmons,GlobalWarmingandColdWinters,SkepticalScience,January15,20112014warmestyearsincerecordsbeganNASA’sGISSSurfaceTemperatureAnalysisgraphshownearlier(from1800to2014)showsthattemperatureanomaliessince1980haveallbeenpositive;i.e.ithasbeenconstantlyhotterthannormal.Asthesamedatashows,thehottestyearshaveallbeensince1998:Rank1=Warmest1880–2014YearAnomaly°CAnomaly°FSource:NOAANationalClimaticDataCenter,StateoftheClimate:GlobalAnalysisforAnnual2014,publishedonlineDecember2014,retrievedonJanuary25,2015120140.691.242(tie)20100.651.172(tie)20050.651.17419980.631.135(tie)20130.621.125(tie)20030.621.12720020.611.10820060.601.089(tie)20090.591.069(tie)20070.591.06BacktotopWhataretheimpactsofGlobalWarming?Fordecades,greenhousegases,suchascarbondioxidehavebeenincreasingintheatmosphere.Butwhydoesthatmatter?Won’twarmerweatherbenicerforeveryone?RapidchangesinglobaltemperatureIncreasedgreenhousegasesandthegreenhouseeffecthascontributedtoanoverallwarmingoftheEarth’sclimate,leadingtoaglobalwarming(eventhoughsomeregionsmayexperiencecooling,orwetterweather,whilethetemperatureoftheplanetonaveragewouldrise).Consideralsothefollowing:Whileyear-to-yearchangesintemperatureoftenreflectnaturalclimaticvariationssuchasElNiño/LaNiñaevents,changesinaveragetemperaturefromdecade-to-decadereveallong-termtrendssuchasglobalwarming.Eachofthelastthreedecadeshasbeenmuchwarmerthanthedecadebefore.Atthetime,the1980swasthehottestdecadeonrecord.Inthe1990s,everyyearwaswarmerthantheaverageofthepreviousdecade.The2000swerewarmerstill.PastDecadeWarmestonRecordAccordingtoScientistsin48Countries,NationalOceanandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),July28,2010Attheendofthe1990s,theWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)hadnotedthatnotonlywasthe1990sthewarmestdecadebutatthetime,the1900swasthewarmestcenturyduringthelast1,000years.Itistherapidpaceatwhichthetemperaturewillrisethatwillresultinmanynegativeimpactstohumansandtheenvironmentandthiswhythereissuchaworld-wideconcern.SmallaverageglobaltemperaturechangecanhaveabigimpactClimatescientistsadmitthatthechancesoftheworldkeepingaverageglobaltemperatureatcurrentlevelsarenotgoingtobepossible(humanityhasdonelittletoaddressthingsinthepastcoupleofdecadesthattheseconcernshavebeenknownabout).So,now,thereisapushtocontaintemperaturerisestoanaverage2°Cincrease(asanaverage,thismeanssomeregionsmaygethighertemperaturesandothers,lower).Evenjusta2°Cincreasecanhaveimpactsaroundtheworldtobiodiversity,agriculture,theoceansetc(detailedfurtherbelow).Butintheleaduptoimportantglobalclimatetalksattheendof2009,somedelegatesareskepticalthattemperaturerisescanbecontainedtoa2°Crise(orC02levelsof350ppm).OnOctober22,2009,theBritishGovernmentandtheUK’sMetOffice(UK’sNationalWeatherService)unveiledanewmap,showingwhatwouldhappenifweallowedaverageglobaltemperaturestoincreaseto4°Cabovepre-industriallevels(thehighendoftheUNIPCCprojections):Theimpactofaglobaltemperatureriseof4ºC(7ºF),UKMetOffice,October22,2009 Inshort,wewouldnotbeabletocopewitha4°Caverageincrease.AstheMetOfficenoted,Thepostershowsthatafourdegreeaveragerisewillnotbespreaduniformlyacrosstheglobe.Thelandwillheatupmorequicklythanthesea,andhighlatitudes,particularlytheArctic,willhavelargertemperatureincreases.Theaveragelandtemperaturewillbe5.5degreesabovepre-industriallevels.Theimpactsonhumanactivityshownonthemapareonlyaselection….Agriculturalyieldsareexpectedtodecreaseforallmajorcerealcropsinallmajorregionsofproduction.HalfofallHimalayanglacierswillbesignificantlyreducedby2050,leadingto23%ofthepopulationofChinabeingdeprivedofthevitaldryseasonglacialmeltwatersource.Theimpactofaglobaltemperatureriseof4ºC(7ºF),UKMetOffice,October22,2009SidenoteSeealsocoveragebytheGuardianandtheUKgovernment’swebsiteforCopenhagentalksrelatedactivities.ExtremeWeatherPatternsMostscientistsbelievethatthewarmingoftheclimatewillleadtomoreextremeweatherpatternssuchas:Morehurricanesanddrought;Longerspellsofdryheatorintenserain(dependingonwhereyouareintheworld);ScientistshavepointedoutthatNorthernEuropecouldbeseverelyaffectedwithcolderweatherifclimatechangecontinues,asthearcticbeginstomeltandsendfresherwatersfurthersouth.ItwouldeffectivelycutofftheGulfStreamthatbringswarmthfromtheGulfofMexico,keepingcountriessuchasBritainwarmerthanexpected;InSouthAsia,theHimalayanglacierscouldretreatcausingwaterscarcityinthelongrun.Whilemanyenvironmentalgroupshavebeenwarningaboutextremeweatherconditionsforafewyears,theWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationannouncedinJuly2003thatRecentscientificassessmentsindicatethat,astheglobaltemperaturescontinuetowarmduetoclimatechange,thenumberandintensityofextremeeventsmightincrease.TheWMOalsonotesthatNewrecordextremeeventsoccureveryyearsomewhereintheglobe,butinrecentyearsthenumberofsuchextremeshavebeenincreasing.(TheWMOlimitsthedefinitionofextremeeventstohightemperatures,lowtemperaturesandhighrainfallamountsanddroughts.)TheU.K’sIndependentnewspaperdescribedtheWMO’sannouncementasunprecedentedandastonishingbecauseitcamefromarespectedUnitedNationsorganizationnotanenvironmentalgroup!Super-stormsMentionedfurtherabovewastheconcernthatmorehurricanescouldresult.ThelinkusedwasfromtheenvironmentalorganizationWWF,writtenbackin1999.InAugust/September2004awaveofseverehurricanesleftmanyCaribbeanislandsandpartsofSouthEasternUnitedStatesdevastated.IntheCaribbeanmanyliveswerelostandtherewasimmensedamagetoentirecities.IntheU.S.manyliveswerelostaswell,someofthemostexpensivedamageresultedfromthesuccessivehurricanes.Initswake,scientistshavereiteratedthatsuchsuper-stormsmaybeasignofthingstocome.Globalwarmingmayspawnmoresuper-storms,InterPressService(IPS)notes.InterviewingabiologicaloceanographyprofessoratHarvardUniversity,IPSnotesthattheworld’soceansareapproaching27degreesCorwarmerduringthesummer.Thisincreasestheoddsofmajorstorms.Whenwaterreachessuchtemperatures,moreofitevaporates,priminghurricaneorcycloneformation.Onceborn,ahurricaneneedsonlywarmwatertobuildandmaintainitsstrengthandintensity.Furthermore,asemissionsofgreenhousegasescontinuetotrapmoreandmoreofthesun’senergy,thatenergyhastobedissipated,resultinginstrongerstorms,moreintenseprecipitationandhigherwinds.Thereisabundantevidenceofanunprecedentednumberofsevereweathereventsinthepastdecade,[professorofbiologicaloceanographyatHarvardUniversity,James]McCarthysays.In1998,HurricaneMitchkillednearly20,000peopleinCentralAmerica,andmorethan4,000peoplediedduringdisastrousfloodinginChina.Bangladeshsufferedsomeofitsworstfloodseverthefollowingyear,asdidVenezuela.Europewashitwithrecordfloodsin2002,andthenarecordheatwavein2003.Morerecently,Brazilwasstruckbythefirst-everrecordedhurricaneintheSouthAtlanticlastMarch.Weatherrecordsarebeingsetallthetimenow.We’reinaneraofunprecedentedextremeweatherevents,McCarthysaid.Historicalweatherpatternsarebecominglessusefulforpredictingthefutureconditionsbecauseglobalwarmingischangingoceanandatmosphericconditions.In30to50years’time,theEarth’sweathergeneratingsystemwillbeentirelydifferent,hepredicted.StephenLeahy,GlobalWarmingMaySpawnMoreSuper-Storms,InterPressService,September20,2004ExtremeweathereventsontheincreaseLookingat2010asawholeyearrevealedavarietyofextremeweatherevents.Apanelofclimateandweatherexpertsrankedthetop10globalweather/climateeventsof2010whichincludedheatwavestodroughtstonegativearcticoscillation(aclimatepatternwherecoldArcticairslidessouthwhilewarmerairmovesnorth,bringingsnowstormsandrecordcoldtemperaturestomuchoftheNorthernHemisphere)showthatavarietyofweathereventscanoccurasaresultofchangingclimate:TopTenGlobalWeather/ClimateEventsof2010RankEventWhenOccurredDescriptionSource:TopTenGlobalWeather/ClimateEventsof2010NationalClimaticDataCenter,NOAA,December2010TheselistswerecompiledandvotedonduringthefirstweekofDecember.Significantevents,suchastheextremewinterweatherinEuropeandthefloodinginAustraliaoccurredafterthisdate.Theseeventshavebeenincludedinanadditionalsectiontitled,HonorableMention,butmayhavewarrantedtoptenplacement.1Russo-European-AsianHeatWavesSummerAseveresummerspawneddrought,wildfiresandcropfailuresacrosswesternRussia,wheremorethan15,000peopledied.All-timehightemperaturesoccurredinmanycitiesandnationsintheregion.ChinafacedlocustswarmsduringJuly.22010as[near]warmestonrecordCalendarYearAccordingtoNOAA,theglobally-averagedtemperaturefor2010willfinishamongthetwowarmest,andlikelythewarmest,onrecord.Threemonthsin2010werethewarmestonrecordforthatmonth.3PakistaniFloodingLateJulyintoAugustRainfallrelatedtotheAsianMonsoonwasdisplacedunusuallywestward,andmorethanafootofrainfellacrossalargeareaoftheUpperIndusValley.SubsequentfloodingdowntheIndusRiverkilled1,600peopleanddisplacedmillions.4ElNiñotoLaNiñaTransitionMid-to-LateBorealSpringENSO,themostprominentandfar-reachingpatternsofclimatevariability,sawahugeswinginmid-2010.Only1973,1983and1998haveseenlargerwithin-yearswings.5NegativeArcticOscillationDecember–FebruaryTheAOIndex,whichisstronglycorrelatedwithwintertimecoldairoutbreaks,reached-4.27forFebruary,thelargestnegativeanomalysincerecordsbeganin1950.MajorcoldairoutbreaksoccurredthroughouttheNorthernHemisphere.6BrazilianDroughtOngoingAseveredroughtparchingnorthernBrazilshrunktheRioNegro,oneoftheAmazonRiver'smostimportanttributaries,toitslowestlevelsincerecordsbeganin1902atitsconfluencewiththeAmazon.TheAmazon'sdepththerefellmorethan12feetbelowitsaverage.7-tieHistoricallyInactiveNEPacificHurricaneSeasonMay15th–November30thTheNortheastPacificHurricaneSeasonwasoneoftheleastactiveonrecord,producedthefewestnamedstormsandhurricanesofthemodernera,andhadtheearliestcessationoftropicalactivity(Sep23)onrecord.7-tieHistoricN.HemisphericSnowRetreatJanuarythroughJuneDespiteDecember2009havingthesecond-largestsnowcoverextentofthesatelliterecord(mid-1960s),themeltseasonwasferocious,contributingtospringfloodsintheNorthernU.S.andCanada.Followingtheearlyandpronouncedsnowmelt,theNorthAmerican,EurasianandHemisphericsnowcoverwasthesmallestonrecordforMayandJune2010.9MinimumSeaIceExtentMid-SeptemberThe2010seaiceminimumof4.9millionsqkmwasthethirdsmallestonrecord.Thelastfouryears(2007-2010)arethefoursmallestonrecord.TheNorthwestPassageandtheNorthernSeaRouteweresimultaneouslyice-freeinSeptember,afirstinmodernhistory.10ChinaDroughtFirsthalfof2010ApersistentdroughtcenteredintheYunanProvincewastoutedasperhapstheworstinthisregioninmorethan100years.Majorcroplossesandlackofdrinkingwatercreatedsevereproblemsforlocalresidents.EcosystemImpactsWithglobalwarmingontheincreaseandspecies’habitatsonthedecrease,thechancesforvariousecosystemstoadaptnaturallyarediminishing.Manystudieshavepointedoutthattheratesofextinctionofanimalandplantspecies,andthetemperaturechangesaroundtheworldsincetheindustrialrevolution,havebeensignificantlydifferenttonormalexpectations.Ananalysisofpopulationtrends,climatechange,increasingpollutionandemergingdiseasesfoundthat40percentofdeathsintheworldcouldbeattributedtoenvironmentalfactors.JaanSuurkula,M.D.andchairmanofPhysiciansandScientistsforResponsibleApplicationofScienceandTechnology(PSRAST),paintsadirepicture,butnotesthatheisonlycitingobservationsandconclusionsfromestablishedexpertsandinstitutions.Thoseobservationsandconclusionsnotethatglobalwarmingwillleadtothefollowingsituations,amongstothers:RapidglobalheatingaccordingtoaUSNationalAcademyofSciencewarning;Dramaticincreaseingreenhousegasemissions;Ozonelossaggravatedbyglobalwarming;Ozonelosslikelytoaggravateglobalwarming;Warmingoftheoceansleadstoincreasedgreenhousegasses;Permafrostthawingwillaggravateglobalwarming;Oceanicchangesobservedthatmayaggravatethesituation;Aviciouscirclewherebyeachproblemwillexacerbateotherproblemswhichwillfeedbackintoeachother;Massiveextinctionofspecieswillaggravatetheenvironmentalcrisis;Suddencollapseofbiologicalandecologicalsystemsmayoccur,butwillhaveaveryslowrecovery;WhileeffectivemeasurescandecreaseglobalwarmingandotherproblemstheWorldcommunityhasrepeatedlyfailedtoestablishcooperation.TheviciouscircleSuurkulareferstoisworthexpanding.Inhisownwords,butslightlyreformatted:Theongoingaccumulationofgreenhousegassescausesincreasingglobalwarming.Thiscausesamoreextensivedestructionofozoneinthepolarregionsbecauseofaccentuatedstratosphericcooling. AnincreaseofozonedestructionincreasestheUV-radiationthat,combinedwithhigheroceantemperature,causesareductionofthegiganticcarbondioxidetrappingmechanismoftheoceanicphytoplanktonbiomass;Thisaccentuatesthewarmingprocess.Whenthewarminghasreachedacertainlevel,itwillreleasehugeamountsofgreenhousegassestrappedinthepermafrost. Thiswillenhancetheglobalwarming,andthepolardestructionofozone,andsoon.Theobserveddecreaseofthethermohalinecirculation[thevariousstreamsthattransportwarmandcoldwatersaroundtheworldandthereforehasanimportantstabilizingeffectonworldclimate]furtheraggravatesthesituation.Thisisaglobalself-reinforcingviciouscircleacceleratingtheglobalwarming.JaanSuurkula,World-widecooperationrequiredtopreventglobalcrisis;Partone—theproblem,PhysiciansandScientistsforResponsibleApplicationofScienceandTechnology,February6,2004RisingSeaLevelsWaterexpandswhenheated,andsealevelsareexpectedtoriseduetoclimatechange.Risingsealevelswillalsoresultasthepolarcapsbegintomelt.Risingsealevelsisalreadyaffectingmanysmallislands.TheWorldWatchInstitutereportsthat[t]heEarth’sicecoverismeltinginmoreplacesandathigherratesthanatanytimesincerecordkeepingbegan.(March6,2000).Risingsealevelswillimpactmanycoastlines,andalargemassofhumanitylivesnearthecoastsorbymajorrivers.AnalysisbytheWorldWildlifeFundhasfoundthatmanycitiesareunpreparedforclimatechangeeffectssuchasrisingsealevels.IncreasingoceanacidificationOceanAcidification;consumptionofcarbonateionsimpedecalcification.Source:PacificMarineEnvironmentLaboratory,NOAAAlthoughithasgainedlessmainstreammediaattention,theeffectsofincreasinggreenhouseemissions—inparticularcarbondioxide—ontheoceansmaywellbesignificant.NOAAOceanAcidificationDemonstration,NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,February26,2010 AsexplainedbytheUSagency,theNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),thebasicchemistryofoceanacidificationiswellunderstood.Thesearethe3mainconcepts:MoreCO2intheatmospheremeansmoreCO2intheocean;AtmosphericCO2isdissolvedintheocean,whichbecomesmoreacidic;andTheresultingchangesinthechemistryoftheoceansdisruptstheabilityofplantsandanimalsintheseatomakeshellsandskeletonsofcalciumcarbonate,whiledissolvingshellsalreadyformed. Shortoverviewofoceanacidification:OceanAcidification,ABCWorldNewsWebcast,June7,2008 ScientistshavefoundthatoceansareabletoabsorbsomeoftheexcessCO2releasedbyhumanactivity.Thishashelpedkeeptheplanetcoolerthanitotherwisecouldhavebeenhadthesegasesremainedintheatmosphere.However,theadditionalexcessCO2beingabsorbedisalsoresultingintheacidificationoftheoceans:WhenCO2reactswithwateritproducesaweakacidcalledcarbonicacid,changingtheseawaterchemistry.AstheGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportexplains,thewaterissome30%moreacidicthanpre-industrialtimes,depletingcarbonateions—thebuildingblocksformanymarineorganisms.Inaddition,concentrationsofcarbonateionsarenowlowerthanatanytimeduringthelast800,000years.Theimpactsonoceanbiologicaldiversityandecosystemfunctioningwilllikelybesevere,thoughtheprecisetiminganddistributionoftheseimpactsareuncertain.(Seep.58ofthereport.)AlthoughmillionsofyearsagoCO2levelswerehigher,today’schangeisoccurringrapidly,givingmanymarineorganismstoolittletimetoadapt.Somemarinecreaturesaregrowingthinnershellsorskeletons,forexample.Someofthesecreaturesplayacrucialroleinthefoodchain,andinecosystembiodiversity. Clayanimationbyschoolchildren:TheotherCO2problem,March23,2009(commissionedbyEPOCA) Somespeciesmaybenefitfromtheextracarbondioxide,andafewyearsagoscientistsandorganizations,suchastheEuropeanProjectonOCeanAcidification,formedtotrytounderstandandassesstheimpactsfurther.Oneexampleofrecentfindingsisatinysandgrain-sizedplanktonresponsibleforthesequestrationof25–50%ofthecarbontheoceansabsorbisaffectedbyincreasingoceanacidification.Thistinyplanktonplaysamajorroleinkeepingatmosphericcarbondioxide(CO2)concentrationsatmuchlowerlevelsthantheywouldbeotherwisesolargeeffectsonthemcouldbequiteserious.OtherrelatedproblemsreportedbytheInterPressServiceincludemoreoceanicdeadzones(areaswherethereistoolittleoxygenintheseatosupportlife)andthedeclineofimportantcoastalplantsandforests,suchasmangroveforeststhatplayanimportantroleincarbonabsorption.Thisisontopofthealreadydecliningoceanbiodiversitythathasbeenhappeningforafewdecades,now.Scientistsnowbelievethatoceanacidificationisunparalleledinthelast300millionyears,raisingthepossibilitythatweareenteringanunknownterritoryofmarineecosystemchange.IncreaseinPestsandDiseaseAnincreaseinpestsanddiseaseisalsofeared.AreportinthejournalScienceinJune2002describedthealarmingincreaseintheoutbreaksandepidemicsofdiseasesthroughoutthelandandoceanbasedwildlifeduetoclimatechanges.Oneoftheauthorspointsoutthat,Climatechangeisdisruptingnaturalecosystemsinawaythatismakinglifebetterforinfectiousdiseases.FailingAgriculturalOutput;IncreaseinWorldHungerTheGuardiansummarizesaUnitedNationswarningthat,Oneinsixcountriesintheworldfacefoodshortagesthisyearbecauseofseveredroughtsthatcouldbecomesemi-permanentunderclimatechange.Droughtanddesertificationarestartingtospreadandintensifyinsomepartsoftheworldalready.AgricultureandlivelihoodsarealreadybeingaffectedFailingagricultureinthefuturehavelongbeenpredicted.FoodandGlobalWarming,ScienCentral,January7,2009 Lookingto2100,scientistswholookedatprojectionsofglobalwarming’simpactontheaveragetemperaturesduringthegrowingseasonfearthatrisingtemperatureswillhaveasignificantimpactuponcropyields,mostnoticeablyinthetropicsandsubtropics.Whilewarmweathercanoftenbegoodforsomecrops,hotterthanaveragetemperaturesfortheentireseasonisoftennotgoodforplants.Thiswouldaffectatleasthalftheworld’spopulationthateitherliveintheregionorrelyonfoodcomingfromthatregion.IRIN(IntegratedRegionalInformationNetworks),partoftheUnitedNations,hasproducedaseriesofshortvideosshowinghowsomeregionsarealreadybeingaffectedbyclimatechangeandaretryingtoadaptasaresult:ChangingcropsMeltingglaciersWorseningfloodsCreepingdesertsChangingcropsOneexampleisfarmersinNepalfindingthatcultivatingriceisn’tasproductiveasbefore,andarechangingtoothercropsasaresult:SwappingCrops—ClimateChange,IRIN,June28,2009 MeltingglaciersIntheHimalayas,meltingglaciersmeanslesswaterforlocalvillages:MeltingGlaciers—ClimateChange,IRIN,June25,2009 (SouthAsiaingeneralisalsoseriouslyaffectedbyrapidlyretreatingHimalayanglacierswhichfeedthemightyriversthathavecreatedthevariousSouthAsiancivilizations.)WorseningfloodsInMozambique,rainsarebecomingheavierandcausingfloods,whichaffectcropsandpeople’slivelihoodsastheyaredisplacedandhavetochangetheirwayoflifequickly.FloodingRiversinMozambique,IRIN,January21,2009 Itisfearedthatglobally,therewillbemassmigrationsinthefutureasclimatechangemakesconditionsworseinsomeregionsoftheworld,andthesechallengeswillplayitselfoutonamuchlargerscale,withmuchmorehumanmovement.(AndifWesternattitudestowardsimmigrationarenegativenow,theycouldbeevenworseinthefuture.)CreepingdesertsInMauritania,bycontrast,thereistheproblemofincreasingdesertification,creepingeverclosertopeoplewhohavehadtochangetheirwayoflife,focusingmoreonsearchingforwater.CreepingDesertsinMauritania,IRIN,January21,2009 Insomecases,improvedagriculturaltechniquesmayhelp,suchasrainwaterharvestinganddripirrigation.Somealsobelievegeneticallymodifiedcropsmaybeessentialtodealwithchangingclimates.Yet,therearemanyothercrucialissuesthataffectagriculture,suchaspoverty,politicalandeconomiccausesofworldhunger,globaltradepolicies(whichcreateunequaltradeandaffectthepoorestcountriesthemost),etc.SeeIRIN’svideosonclimatechangeimpactsinAfricaandAsiaformoreshortclips.WomenfacebruntofclimatechangeimpactsItisrecognizedthatpoorernationswillsuffertheworstfromclimatechange,eitherbecauseofgeographicalreasons,and/orbecausetheywillhavelessresourcestocopewithaproblem(mostlycausedbyemissionsfromrichcountriesoverthepastdecades).Inadditiontopoorcountries,womenarelikelytosuffertheworst,astheUnitedNationsPopulationfundexplains:Women—particularlythoseinpoorcountries—willbeaffecteddifferentlythanmen.Theyareamongthemostvulnerabletoclimatechange,partlybecauseinmanycountriestheymakeupthelargershareoftheagriculturalworkforceandpartlybecausetheytendtohaveaccesstofewerincome-earningopportunities.Womenmanagehouseholdsandcareforfamilymembers,whichoftenlimitstheirmobilityandincreasestheirvulnerabilitytosuddenweather-relatednaturaldisasters.Droughtanderraticrainfallforcewomentoworkhardertosecurefood,waterandenergyfortheirhomes.Girlsdropoutofschooltohelptheirmotherswiththesetasks.Thiscycleofdeprivation,povertyandinequalityunderminesthesocialcapitalneededtodealeffectivelywithclimatechange.Facingachangingworld:women,populationandclimate,StateoftheWorld’sPopulation2009,UNFPA,November18,2009,p.4TheUNFPAalsocapturesthisinsomevideosthataccompaniedtheir2009report.WomenandClimateChangeinBolivia,UNFPA,November2009WomenandClimateChangeinVietnam,UNFPA,November2009Thefirstoneistheabove-describedeffectsoccurringinruralareasofBolivia.ThesecondoneisontheimpactonwomeninVietnam.BacktotopGreenhousegasesandemissionsresultingfromhumanactivityEveryfewyears,leadingclimatescientistsattheUN’sIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)havereleasedmajor,definitivereportsdetailingtheprogressinunderstandingclimatechange.Fromtheoutsettheyhaverecommendedthattherebeemissionreductions.Thisbodyiscomprisedofhundredsofclimatescientistsaroundtheworld.AtthebeginningofJanuary2007,theIPCC’sfourthmajorreportsummarizedthattheywereevenmorecertainthanbeforeofhuman-inducedclimatechangebecauseofbetterscientificunderstanding:Globalatmosphericconcentrationsofcarbondioxide,methaneandnitrousoxidehaveincreasedmarkedlyasaresultofhumanactivitiessince1750andnowfarexceedpre-industrialvaluesdeterminedfromicecoresspanningmanythousandsofyears.Theglobalincreasesincarbondioxideconcentrationaredueprimarilytofossilfueluseandland-usechange,whilethoseofmethaneandnitrousoxideareprimarilyduetoagriculture.…TheunderstandingofanthropogenicwarmingandcoolinginfluencesonclimatehasimprovedsincetheThirdAssessmentReport(TAR),leadingtoveryhighconfidencethatthegloballyaveragedneteffectofhumanactivitiessince1750hasbeenoneofwarming.Mostoftheobservedincreaseingloballyaveragedtemperaturessincethemid-20thcenturyisverylikelyduetotheobservedincreaseinanthropogenicgreenhousegasconcentrations.ClimateChange2007:ThePhysicalScienceBasis;SummaryforPolicymakers,IPCC,February5th,2007[emphasisisoriginal]Theirdefinitionofveryhighconfidenceandverylikelyisa90%chanceofbeingcorrect.(Their2001reportclaimeda66%certainty.)Thisreportwasproducedbysome600authorsfrom40countries.Over620expertreviewersandalargenumberofgovernmentreviewersalsoparticipated,accordingtotheIPCC’smediaadvisory.AsInterPressServicenotes,althoughtheIPCChasbecomethegoldstandardforglobalscientificcollaboration,theirreportsareinherentlyconservative:TheIPCCoperatesundertheWorldMeteorologicalOrganisation(WMO)andtheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP)anddoesnotfundanyresearchitself.Itcollects,evaluatesandsynthesisesscientificdata.AnyU.N.countrycanbeamemberoftheIPCCandcanchallengethefindingsinitsreports.AndconsensusisrequiredforeverywordintheSummaryforPolicyMakerssectionincludedineachreport.It’saninherentlyconservativeprocess,withoil-richcountrieslikeKuwaitandSaudiArabiaalwaystryingtotonedowntheconclusionsandemphasiseuncertaintiesandunknowns,saidWeaver.StephenLeahy,EndlessSummerNotAsNiceAsItSounds,InterPressService,January25,2007DifferencesinGreenhouseGasEmissionAroundtheWorldAstheWorldResourcesInstitutehighlightsthereisahugecontrastbetweendeveloped/industrializednationsandpoorerdevelopingcountriesingreenhouseemissions,aswellasthereasonsforthoseemissions.Forexample:Intermsofhistoricalemissions,industrializedcountriesaccountforroughly80%ofthecarbondioxidebuildupintheatmospheretodate.Since1950,theU.S.hasemittedacumulativetotalofroughly50.7billiontonsofcarbon,whileChina(4.6timesmorepopulous)andIndia(3.5timesmorepopulous)haveemittedonly15.7and4.2billiontonsrespectively(althoughtheirnumberswillrise).Annually,morethan60percentofglobalindustrialcarbondioxideemissionsoriginateinindustrializedcountries,whereonlyabout20percentoftheworld’spopulationresides.Muchofthegrowthinemissionsindevelopingcountriesresultsfromtheprovisionofbasichumanneedsforgrowingpopulations,whileemissionsinindustrializedcountriescontributetogrowthinastandardoflivingthatisalreadyfarabovethatoftheaveragepersonworldwide.Thisisexemplifiedbythelargecontrastsinpercapitacarbonsemissionsbetweenindustrializedanddevelopingcountries.PercapitaemissionsofcarbonintheU.S.areover20timeshigherthanIndia,12timeshigherthanBrazilandseventimeshigherthanChina.Atthe1997KyotoConference,industrializedcountrieswerecommittedtoanoverallreductionofemissionsofgreenhousegasesto5.2%below1990levelsfortheperiod2008—2012.(TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)saidinits1990reportthata60%reductioninemissionswasneeded…)TheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversity(TEEB)isanorganization—backedbytheUNandvariousEuropeangovernments—attemptingtocompile,buildandmakeacompellingeconomicscasefortheconservationofecosystemsandbiodiversity.InareporttitledTheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversityforNationalandInternationalPolicyMakers2009,TEEBnoteddifferenttypesofcarbonemissionsascolorsofcarbon:BrowncarbonIndustrialemissionsofgreenhousegasesthataffecttheclimate.GreencarbonCarbonstoredinterrestrialecosystemse.g.plantbiomass,soils,wetlandsandpastureandincreasinglyrecognizedasakeyitemfornegotiationintheUNFCCC.BluecarbonCarbonboundintheworld’soceans.Anestimated55%ofallcarboninlivingorganismsisstoredinmangroves,marshes,seagrasses,coralreefsandmacro-algae.BlackcarbonFormedthroughincompletecombustionoffuelsandmaybesignificantlyreducedifcleanburningtechnologiesareemployed.Butamitigationapproachneedstoconsideralltheseformsofcarbontheynote,notjustoneortwo:Pastmitigationeffortsconcentratedonbrowncarbon,sometimesleadingtolandconversionforbiofuelproductionwhichinadvertentlyincreasedemissionsfromgreencarbon.Byhaltingthelossofgreenandbluecarbon,theworldcouldmitigateasmuchas25%oftotalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionswithco-benefitsforbiodiversity,foodsecurityandlivelihoods(IPCC2007,Nellemannetal.2009).Thiswillonlybepossibleifmitigationeffortsaccommodateallfourcarboncolors.TheEconomicsofEcosystemsandBiodiversityforNationalandInternationalPolicyMakers2009,p.18TheUnitedStatesistheWorld’sLargestEmitterofGreenhouseGasesPerCapitaAround2007,ChinasurpassedtheUSastheworld’slargestemitterofgreenhousegasesintermsoftotaloutput.Perperson(percapita),however,China’semissionsaremuchsmaller.Untilrecently,theUnitedStateswastheworld’slargestemitterofgreenhousegases.However,itremainsthelargestemitterwhenmeasuredintermsofemissionsperperson.Duetoitsmuchlongerperiodofindustrialization,theUShasemittedfarmoreintotheatmospherethanChina(greenhousegasessuchasCO2lingeronintheatmospherefordecades).Inaddition,theUS:Accountsforroughlyfourpercentoftheworld’spopulation;Accountsforapproximately20%ofglobalemissionsandsome40%ofindustrializedcountryemissions;Thepreviously15-memberEuropeanUnionisalsolargeEmitterThepreviously15member-nationsEuropeanUnion(E.U.),ifconsideredasawhole(foritismorecomparabletotheU.S.):Accountsforroughly3percentoftheworld’spopulation;Accountsforaround10%ofglobalemissionsand24%ofindustrializedcountries’man-madeemissionsofthesixmaingases;Recentyearshaveseenareductioninemissionsfromthoseinitial15-memberstates.However, Itisnotnearthelevelrequired;Forthesecondconsecutiveyear,in2003,emissionsfromEUcountrieshaveactuallyincreasedslightly(thoughstillremainingslightlylowerthan1990levels).StallingKyotoProtocolGetsPushbyRussiaTheKyotoProtocolwastheclimatechangetreatynegotiatedin1997,settingtargetsforemissionsofgreenhousegases.Inordertobebindingunderinternationallaw,thetreatywouldneedratificationfromthecountriesresponsibleforaround55%oftheglobalgreenhousegasemissionsof1990.TheU.S.beingtheworld’slargestemitterofgreenhousegases,pulledoutin2001,leavingtreatyratificationdependentonRussia,responsiblefor17%ofworldemissions.RussiahastocutemissionlevelsfromtheSovietdays,andtheiremissionsinthepastdecadehasbeenfarless,soitshouldnotposeasmuchofaproblemtoreducesuchemissions.Notingtheabove,theBBCcommentedonthisaddingthatKyotowasonlyeverafirststep—nowdiscussionsonthenext,morestringent,targetongreenhousegasemissionscanbegin.CanadapullsoutofKyotoOnDecember132011,CanadapulledoutoftheKyotoclimatetreaty—whichitislegallyallowedtodo—tocondemnationdomesticallyandinternationally.Oneofthemainconcernshadbeenthecosttothetaxpayer:(CAN)$14bn.Yet,theeconomiccostsofinactionareinthetrillions:Economicstudieshaveconsistentlyshownthatmitigation(suchasputtingapriceoncarbonemissions)isseveraltimeslesscostlythantryingtoadapttoclimatechange.Theabovechartshowstotalcostsforactiononclimatechangeby2100tobeabout$11trillionwhiledamageswillbeabout$8trillion.Withinaction,however,damagesby2100willbearound$20trillion.By2200,thesenumbersshootup(over$30trillionifactiontaken,orover$70ifnoactiontaken).Source:Theeconomicimpactsofcarbonpricing,SkepticalScience.com,March1,2012(SomebelieveoneofCanada’smotivationstoleaveKyotowasonitsdesiretoprotectthelucrativebuthighlypollutingexploitationoftarsands,thesecondbiggestoilreserveintheworld,asTheGuardianhadnoted.)RichnationemissionshavebeenrisingTheUNFCCCreported(November17,2008)thatalthoughindustrializednationshavereducedemissionsbetween1990and2006,inrecentyears,between2000and2006,greenhousegasemissionshavegenerallyincreasedby2.3%.SidenoteTheabovedataexcludesemissions/reductionsfromwhatisknownasLandUse,LandUseChange,orForestrysources(LULUCF).LULUCFusescanactascarbonsinks,absorbingandstoringcarbondioxide(e.g.preservingorpreventingdeforestation),orcanbeasourceofcarbonemissions(e.g.deforestation,forestfires,clearingland,agriculturalactivities,etc).IfLULUCFemissions/reductionsarefactoredin,theUNFCCCfindsthatgreenhouseemissionsfromindustrializednationsincreasedby1%,lessthantheincreasewhenexcludingLULUCF.However,astheUNFCCCalsonotesLULUCFemissionreductionsarenotreliableoragoodindicatorforourpurposeshere:themaindrawbackofLULUCFactivitiesistheirpotentialreversibilityandnon-permanenceofcarbonstocksasaresultofhumanactivities,(withthereleaseofGHGintotheatmosphere),disturbances(e.g.forestfiresordisease),orenvironmentalchange,includingclimatechange.Thisisdespiteanoveralldecreaseof4.7%since1990.However,themorerecentperiodsuggeststherichcountryemissionreductionsarenotsustainable.Furthermore,itlooksworseconsideringalargepartofthisdecreaseisbecauseofthecollapseoftheSovietUnion.Astransitioneconomiesstartedtorecoveraround2000,emissionshavestartedtorise.Somenationswithlargereductionsarealsoseeinglimits,forexample:UK(15.1%reduction)benefitedbyswitchingfromcoaltonaturalgasbutthatswitchislargelyinplacenow.Germany(18.2%reduction)hascertainlyinvestedingreenhousegasemissionreductions,buthasbeenhelpedinlargepartbecauseofreunification(EastGermany,likemuchofeasternEuropeandformerSovietstateshadeconomicproblems,hencelessemissionsatthetime).OtherreductionshavecomeinpartfromrelocatingmanufacturingtootherplacessuchasChina,whichnowclaimsatleastonethirdofitsemissionsarebecauseofproductionforothers.(SeealsothisClimateChangePerformanceIndexfromGermanWatchandClimateActionNetworkEurope,whichattemptstorankover57nationsthataccountfor90%oftheworld’stotalgreenhousegasemissions,includingindustrializednationsandemergingeconomies.)RichNationsHaveOutsourcedTheirCarbonEmissionsGlobaltradeisanimportantfeatureofthemodernworld.Theproductionandglobaldistributionofmanufacturedproductsthusformalargeportionofglobalhumancarbonemissions.TheKyotoProtocolassignscarbonemissionstocountriesbasedonwhereproductiontakesplaceratherthanwherethingsareconsumed.Formanyyears,criticsoftheKyotoProtocolhavelongarguedthatthismeansrichcountries,whohaveoutsourcedmuchoftheirmanufacturingtodevelopingnationshaveanaccountingtricktheycanusetoshowmoreemissionsreductionthandevelopingnations.TheBBCnotedbackin2005thatthisoutsourcingwasalreadytakingplace,butthisideastartedwaybeforetheKyotoProtocolcameintobeing.In1991LarrySummers,thenChiefEconomistfortheWorldBank(andUSTreasurySecretary,intheClintonAdministration,untilGeorgeBushandtheRepublicanpartycameintopower),hadbeenastrongbackerofstructuraladjustmentpolicies.Hewroteinaninternalmemo:Justbetweenyouandme,shouldn’ttheWorldBankbeencouragingmoremigrationofdirtyindustriestotheLDCs[lessdevelopedcountries]?…Theeconomiclogicbehinddumpingaloadoftoxicwasteinthelowestwagecountryisimpeccable,andweshouldfaceuptothat…Under-populatedcountriesinAfricaarevastlyunder-polluted;theirairqualityisprobablyvastlyinefficientlylowcomparedtoLosAngelesorMexicoCity…Theconcernoveranagentthatcausesaoneinamillionchangeintheoddsofprostatecancerisobviouslygoingtobemuchhigherinacountrywherepeoplesurvivetogetprostatecancerthaninacountrywhereunder-fivemortalityis200perthousand.LawrenceSummers,Letthemeatpollution,TheEconomist,February8,1992.QuotedfromVandanaShiva,StolenHarvest,(SouthEndPress,2000)p.65;SeealsoRichardRobbins,GlobalProblemsandtheCultureofCapitalism(AllynandBacon,1999),pp.233-236foradetailedlookatthis.Althoughthediscussionabovewasn’taboutcarbonemissions,theintentionwasthesame:ratherthandirectlyaddresstheproblem,off-shoringdirtyindustriestothedevelopingnationsandletthemdealwithit.Morerecently,TheGuardianprovidedausefulsummaryoftheimpactsofthisapproach:carbonemissionscutsbydevelopedcountriessince1990havebeencanceledoutbyincreasesinimportedgoodsfromdevelopingcountries—manytimesover.TheyweresummarizingglobalfigurescompiledandpublishedintheProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciencesoftheUS.AndthefindingsseemedtovindicatewhatmanyenvironmentalgroupshadsaidformanyyearsabouttheKyotoProtocolasnotedearlier.Inmoredetail:Accordingtostandarddata,developedcountriescanclaimtohavereducedtheircollectiveemissionsbyalmost2%between1990and2008.Butoncethecarboncostofimportshavebeenaddedtoeachcountry,andexportssubtracted–thetruechangehasbeenanincreaseof7%.IfRussiaandUkraine–whichcuttheirCO2emissionsrapidlyinthe1990sduetoeconomiccollapse–areexcluded,theriseis12%.…MuchoftheincreaseinemissionsinthedevelopedworldisduetotheUS,whichpromiseda7%cutunderKyotobutthendidnottoratifytheprotocol.Emissionswithinitsbordersincreasedby17%between1990and2008–andby25%whenimportsandexportsarefactoredin.Inthesameperiod,UKemissionsfellby28milliontonnes,butwhenimportsandexportsaretakenintoaccount,thedomesticfootprinthasrisenbymorethan100milliontonnes.Europeachieveda6%cutinCO2emissions,butwhenoutsourcingisconsideredthatisreducedto1%.…Thestudyshowsaverydifferentpictureforcountriesthatexportmorecarbon-intensivegoodsthantheyimport.China,whosegrowthhasbeendrivenbyexport-basedindustries,isusuallydescribedastheworld'slargestemitterofCO2,butitsfootprintdropsbyalmostafifthwhenitsimportsandexportsaretakenintoaccount,puttingitfirmlybehindtheUS.Chinaaloneaccountsforamassive75%ofthedevelopedworld'soffshoredemissions,accordingtothepaper.DuncanClark,Carboncutsbydevelopedcountriescancelledoutbyimportedgoods,TheGuardian,April25,2011Inaddition,asClimateNewsNetworknotes,AsiancountrieshavebeencuttingemissionsfasterthanEuropeandtheUS.Atthesametime,therearesignsofprogressinEuropeandtheUS,too.Germanyforexampleisknowntobepushingforrenewablesmorethanmost.WhilerecentlytheUShasseenadropincarbonemissionswhileseeingsomeeconomicgrowth.DevelopingCountriesAffectedMostIthasbeenknownforsometimeknowthatdevelopingcountrieswillbeaffectedthemost.Reasonsvaryfromlackingresourcestocope,comparedtodevelopednations,immensepoverty,regionsthatmanydevelopingcountriesareinhappentobetheoneswheresevereweatherwillhitthemost,smallislandnationsareaalreadyseeingsealevelrising,andsoon.GermanWatchpublishedaGlobalClimateRiskIndexattheendof2011listingnationsthatwouldbeaffectedthemostfromclimatechangebasedonextremeweathersuchashurricanesandfloods.Between1991and2010theyfoundthesewerethemostaffectednations:BangladeshMyanmarHondurasNicaraguaHaitiVietnamDominicanRepublicPakistanKorea,DPRPhilippinesMuchofAsia,aswellaswealthierareassuchastheUS,RussiaandAustraliahavealsoexperiencedspecificincidentsofverydamagingextremeweatherthattheclimateriskindexcaptures: Weather-relatedlosseventsandtheirimpactsoncountriesin2010and1991to2010 ClimateRiskIndex2012,ClimateWatch,November29,2011 (Clickimageforlargerversion)Into2013,Novembersawpossiblythelargestevertyphoon,Hiayan,makelandfallandcauseincredibledevastationtopartsofthePhilippineswithatleast10,000feareddeadandmorethan9millionaffected. GeostationarysatellitesoftheJapanMeteorologicalAgency(MTSat2)andEUMETSAT(Meteosat-7)capturedtheextraordinarysizeoftyphoonHiayanasitapproachedthePhilippines.Source.©2013JMA/EUMETSAT. HiayanstruckjustdaysbeforethestartofamajorUNconferenceonclimatechangeperhapsactingasawakeupcalltothenegotiatorsregardingpotentialimpactsofinaction.Whilenosingleeventcaneasilybeattributedtoclimatechange,astheInstituteforPublicAccuracynotes,thisdevastatingtyphoondemonstrateshowtheGlobalSouthpaysthepriceforemissionshistoricallyfromtheNorth.GreenhousegasemissionscontinuetoriseTheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization(WMO)notedinNovember2013thattheamountofgreenhousegasesintheatmospherereachedanewrecordhighin2012,continuinganupwardandacceleratingtrendwhichisdrivingclimatechangeandwillshapethefutureofourplanetforhundredsandthousandsofyears.Carbondioxide,mainlyfromfossilfuel-relatedemissions,accountedfor80%ofthisincrease.TheatmosphericincreaseofCO2from2011to2012washigherthanitsaveragegrowthrateoverthepasttenyears.(TheInternationalEnergyAgency,IEA,alsoreportedthisearlierintheyear.)Sodespiteincreasedglobalwarmingconcernsandcallsforaction,littleseemstohavebeenachievedduetothepoliticalchallenges,andskepticismthatabounds.BacktotopSkepticismonGlobalWarmingorThatitcanbehuman-induced©AnneWardPenguinForaverylongtime,somethingofcontentionanddebateintheU.S.hadbeenwhetherornotalotofclimatechangehasinfactbeeninducedbyhumanactivities,whilemanyscientistsaroundtheworld,Europeespecially,havebeenmoreconvincedthatthisisthecase.InMay2002,theBushAdministrationintheU.S.didadmitalinkbetweenhumanactivitiesandclimatechange.However,atthesametimetheadministrationhascontinueditscontroversialstanceofmaintainingthatitwillnotparticipateintheinternationaltreatytolimitglobalwarming,theKyotoProtocol,duetoeconomicprioritiesandconcerns.(MoreabouttheKyotoProtocol,U.S.andothers’actions/inactionsisdiscussedinsubsequentpagesonthissection.)Throughoutthe1990s,especiallyintheUnitedStates,butinothercountriesaswell,thosewhowouldtryandraisetheimportanceofthisissue,andsuggestthatweareperhapsover-consuming,orunsustainablyusingourresourcesetc,werefacedwithalotofcriticismandridicule.ThepreviouslinkistoanarticlebyGeorgeMonbiot,writingin1999.In2004,henotesasimilarissue,wherebymediaattemptsatbalancehasledtofalsebalancingwheredisproportionatetimeisgiventomorefringescientistsorthosewithlesscredibilityorwithadditionalagendas,withoutnotingso,andthusgivestheimpressionthatthereismoredebateinthescientificcommunityaboutwhetherornotclimatechangeisanissuetobeconcernedaboutornot:Pictureasituationinwhichmostofthemedia,despitetheoverwhelmingweightofmedicalopinion,refusedtoacceptthattherewasaconnectionbetweensmokingandlungcancer.Imaginethateverytimenewevidenceemerged,theyaskedsomeonewithnomedicalqualificationstowriteapiecedismissingtheevidenceandclaimingthattherewasnoconsensusontheissue.ImaginethattheBBC,intheinterestsofdebate,wheeledoutoneofthetinynumberofscientistswhosaysthatsmokingandcanceraren’tlinked,orthatgivingupisn’tworththetrouble,everytimetheissueofcancerwasraised.Imaginethat,asaresult,nexttonothingwasdoneabouttheproblem,tothedelightofthetobaccoindustryandthedetrimentofmillionsofsmokers.WewouldsurelydescribethenewspapersandtheBBCasgrosslyirresponsible.Nowstopimaginingit,andtakealookatwhat’shappening.Theissueisnotsmoking,butclimatechange.Thescientificconsensusisjustasrobust,themisreportingjustaswidespread,theconsequencesevengraver.…Thescientificcommunityhasreachedaconsensus,the[U.K.]government’schiefscientificadviser,ProfessorDavidKing,toldtheHouseofLordslastmonth.Idonotbelievethatamongstthescientiststhereisadiscussionastowhetherglobalwarmingisduetoanthropogeniceffects.Itisman-madeanditisessentially[causedby]fossilfuelburning,increasedmethaneproduction…andsoon.SirDavidchosehiswordscarefully.Thereisadiscussionaboutwhetherglobalwarmingisduetoanthropogenic(man-made)effects.Butitisnot—orisonlyseldom—takingplaceamongscientists.Itistakingplaceinthemedia,anditseemstoconsistofacompetitiontoestablishtheouterreachesofimbecility.…Butthese[skepticsandillogicalpointsagainstclimatechange]areratherlessdangerousthantheBBC,anditsinsistenceonbalancingitscoverageofclimatechange.Itappearstobeincapableofrunninganitemonthesubjectwithoutinvitingasceptictocommentonit.Usuallythisiseithersomeonefromacorporate-fundedthinktank(whois,ofcourse,neverintroducedassuch)ortheprofessionalanti-environmentalistPhilipStott.ProfessorStottisaretiredbiogeographer.Likealmostalltheprominentscepticshehasneverpublishedapeer-reviewedpaperonclimatechange.Buthehasmadehimselfavailabletodismissclimatologists’peer-reviewedworkastheliesofecofundamentalists.Thiswouldn’tbesoobjectionableiftheBBCmadeitclearthatthesepeoplearenotclimatologists,andtheoverwhelmingmajorityofqualifiedscientificopinionisagainstthem.Instead,itleavesuswiththeimpressionthatprofessionalopinionissplitdownthemiddle.It’sabitlikecontinuallybringingpeopleontotheprogrammetosuggestthatthereisnolinkbetweenHIVandAids.Whatmakesallthissodangerousisthatitplaysintothehandsofcorporatelobbyists.ArecentlyleakedmemowrittenbyFrankLuntz,theUSRepublicanandcorporatestrategist,warnedthatTheenvironmentisprobablythesingleissueonwhichRepublicansingeneral—andPresidentBushinparticular—aremostvulnerable…Shouldthepubliccometobelievethatthescientificissuesaresettled,theirviewsaboutglobalwarmingwillchangeaccordingly.Therefore,youneed…tomakethelackofscientificcertaintyaprimaryissue.GeorgeMonbiot,Bewarethefossilfools,TheGuardian,April27,2004Monbiot’scommentsabovewereover5yearsago(asofwriting),andyetsomeofthoseconcerns,especiallyaboutfalsebalancing,carryontoday.GarySchmidtisaleadingclimateresearcherworkingforNASA.HeisalsoacontributortoRealClimate.org,ablogbyclimatescientiststhatattempttodispelmisinformationbyclimateskepticsandprovidebackgroundinformationoftenmissinginmainstreammedia.Inoneofhisposts,helamentsatthecontinualdiversioncausedbymisinformation:Recentlytherehasbeenmoreofasensethattheissuesbeingdiscussed(inthemediaoronline)haveabitofagroundhogdayqualitytothem.Thesamenonsense,thesamelogicalfallacies,thesameconfusions–allseemtobeendlesslyrepeated.Thesamestrawmenarebeingconstructedanddemolishedasiftheywerepartofamake-workschemeforthebuildingindustryattachedtothestimulusproposal.GarySchmidt,GroundhogDay,RealClimate.org,June8,2009However,(andperhapsbelatedly)thereisgrowingpublicacceptanceofhuman-inducedclimatechangeasreportssuchastheUSGlobalChangeResearchProgramandtheUKMetOfficeassertthingslikecurrentclimatechangehappeningnowandhuman-inducedandthattheywillcausemanyproblems.But,aswellasgrowingacceptance,thereisalsoloudervocalopposition,andtherepeatednonsenseandlogicalfallaciesthatSchmidtwasconcernedaboutseemstohavehadaneffectuponthegeneralpublic—intheUS,anyway;fewerAmericansbelieveinglobalwarming(astheWashingtonPostheadlinedit.Amongstscientists,however,thereislessskepticism:11%ofUSscientistsfromanyfielddisagreewithhuman-inducedclimatechange,whileonly1%ofUSclimatologistsdisagree,accordingtothefollowing:ClimateChange:AConsensusAmongScientists?,informationisbeautiful.net,December23,2009 Askingwhoareamongthe11%ofskepticalscientistsamongstallsciencefields,almosthalfareengineers.Formoredetailedinformation,thefollowingsitescanbeuseful:Scienceblogs.comprovidesasummaryofthevariousclaimsofclimatechangedeniersgrist.orgprovidesasimilarlistasScienceBlogsRealClimate.orgisanauthoritativeblogmaintainedbysomeoftheworld’sleadingclimatescientists.TheyoftenattempttoexplainverytechnicalissuestolaypeopleandoftentrytoaddresscommonmythsandotherclaimsSkepticalScienceisanotherblogthatlooksatvariousclaimsfromskepticsandaddressesthem.BushAdministrationAccusedofSilencingitsownClimateScientistsAsrevealedtowardstheendofJanuary2006,NASA’stopclimatescientistsaidNASAandtheBushAdministrationtriedtosilencehim.WhileNASAsaidthiswasstandardproceduretoensureanorderlyflowofinformation,thescientist,Dr.JamesHansendisagreed,sayingthatsuchprocedureshadalreadypreventedthepublicfromfullygraspingrecentfindingsaboutclimatechangethatpointtorisksahead.Dr.Hansen,accordingtotheNewYorkTimesreportingthis,notedthatthesewerefresheffortstosilencehimbecausehehadsaidthatsignificantemissioncutscouldbeachievedwithexistingtechnologies,particularlyinthecaseofmotorvehicles,andthatwithoutleadershipbytheUnitedStates,climatechangewouldeventuallyleavetheearthadifferentplanet.(Bycontrast,theBushadministration’spolicyistousevoluntarymeasurestoslow,butnotreverse,thegrowthofemissions.)Furthermore,AfterthatspeechandthereleaseofdatabyDr.HansenonDec.15showingthat2005wasprobablythewarmestyearinatleastacentury,officialsattheheadquartersofthespaceagencyrepeatedlyphonedpublicaffairsofficers,whorelayedthewarningtoDr.Hansenthattherewouldbedireconsequencesifsuchstatementscontinued,thoseofficersandDr.Hansensaidininterviews.Earlier,in2004,Dr.HansenfelloutoffavorwiththeBushAdministrationforpubliclystatingbeforethepresidentialelectionsthatgovernmentscientistswerebeingmuzzledandthatheplannedtovoteforJohnKerry.TheNewYorkTimesalsonotesthatthisechoesotherrecentdisputes,wherebymanyscientistswhoroutinelytookcallsfromreportersfiveyearsagocannowdosoonlyiftheinterviewisapprovedbyadministrationofficialsinWashington,andthenonlyifapublicaffairsofficerispresentoronthephone.Furthermore,Wherescientists’pointsofviewonclimatepolicyalignwiththoseoftheadministration,however,therearefewsignsofrestrictionsonextracurricularlecturesorwriting.Andintermsofmediamanipulation,theTimesalsorevealedthatatleastoneinterview(amongstmanyothers)wascanceledbecauseitwaswithNPR,whichthepublicaffairsofficialresponsiblefeltwasthemostliberalmediaoutletinthecountry.Thisimpliesapoliticalbias/propagandaintermsofhowinformationisreleasedtothepublic,whichshouldbeofseriousconcern.AtthebeginningofJune,2006,theBBCPanoramadocumentaryfolloweduponthisandfoundthatmanyscientistsfelttheywerebeingcensoredandthatvariousreportshadbeensystematicallysuppressed,evenaltered.Inonecase,amajorclimateassessmentreportwasdueoutamonthbeforethe2004presidentialelections,butwasdelayedbecauseithadsuchableakassessment,andtheBushadministrationdidnotwantittobepartoftheelectionissues.Itwasreleasedshortlyaftertheelectionswereover.PanoramaalsointerviewedapollsterwhohadadvisedtheBushAdministrationwhentheycameintopowerin2000toquestionglobalwarming,thathumanscauseditifitexistedatall,tohireskepticalscientists,andplaydownitsimpacts.(TheadvisorhasnowdistancedhimselfawayfromtheBushAdministration’sstancetodaybecausehefeltthesciencewasmorecertainthanitwasin2000.)JustweeksbeforehurricaneKatrinadevastatedpartsofSouthernUnitedStates,PanoramareportedthatAnotherscientistfromtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA)…hadresearchwhichestablishedglobalwarmingcouldincreasetheintensityofhurricanes.Hewasduetogiveaninterviewabouthisworkbutclaimshewasgagged.AfterKatrina,theNOAAwebsitesaidunusualhurricaneactivityisnotrelatedtoglobalwarming.WhenaleadingscientistwasaskedwhyNOAAcameoutwithsuchastatement,hesuggesteditwasideologicallydriven.(TheBBCPanoramadocumentaryiscalledClimatechaos:Bush’sclimateoffearandaswellasasummary,youcanwatchtheactualdocumentaryonline.)Despiteattemptstodiscreditglobalwarmingconcerns,theBushAdministrationhasnowconcededthatthereisclimatechangeandthathumansarecontributingtoit,butPanoramareportsthatalotofvitaltimehasbeenlost,andthatsomescientistsfearUSpolicymaybetooslowtocarryout.AlmostayearafterthestoryaboutattemptstosilenceNASA’stopclimatescientist,manymediaoutletshavereportedonanewsurveywherehundredsofgovernmentscientistssaytheyhaveperceivedorpersonallyexperiencedpressurefromtheBushadministrationtoeliminatephrasessuchas“climatechange”and“globalwarming”fromtheirreportsandpublicstatements.AUSgovernmenthearingintheUSisalsopursuingthisfurtherastheseriousnessofclimatechangeisbecomingmoreaccepted.TherehasbeenasimilarconcerninAustralia.Atthebeginningof2006,theAustralianBroadcastingCompany(ABC)revealedthatsomebusinesslobbygroupshaveinfluencedtheAustraliangovernmenttopreventAustraliafromreducinggreenhousegasemissions.Thislobbygroupincludedinterestsfromthecoal,electricity,aluminum(aluminium),petroleum,mineralsandcementindustries.Thedocumentaryexposingthisrevealedpossiblecorruptionwithingovernmentduetoextremelyclosetieswithsuchindustriesandlobbygroups,andallegedsilencingofgovernmentclimatescientists.Inwhatwouldseemtobeatwisttosuppressionofgovernmentreports,itwaswidelyclaimedthattheUSEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyhadsuppressedareportthatwasskepticalofclimatechange.However,itturnsoutthatwhilethereportwaswrittenbyanemployeeonEPAtime,butonhisowninitiativeandnotqualifiedtodoso,andsocouldn’tbepublishedbytheEPAandthereforewasnotsuppressed.Furthermore,asthepreviouslinkfinds,thereportcontainedlargepiecesofplagiarism.Inaddition,thereportwasflawedasRealClimte.orgquicklyshowed.Theheadlinesaboutthisepisodetalkedofsuppressionandwouldlikelyincreasetheviewamongstthosestillskepticalaboutclimatechange.Correctionstothoseheadlineshavebeenfew,andlessprominent,bycomparison.BacktotopManySourcesOfGreenhouseGasesBeingDiscoveredPollutionfromvariousindustries,theburningoffossilfuels,methanefromfarmanimals,forestdestruction,rotting/deadvegetationetchaveledtoanincreasednumberofgreenhousegasesintheatmosphere.And,asinternationaltradeinitscurrentformcontinuestoexpandwithlittleregardfortheenvironment,thetransportationalone,ofgoodsisthoughttoconsiderablycontributetoglobalwarmingviaemissionsfromplanes,shipsandothertransportationvehicles.(Formoreabouttradeandglobalizationinitscurrentformandhowitaffectstheenvironment,aswellasotherconsequences,visitthiswebsite’ssectiononTrade,Economy,&RelatedIssues.)Photo:fullcargoship.Credit:YP/FlickrEvensulphuremittedfromshipsarethoughttocontributeafairbittoclimatechange.Infact,sulphurbasedgas,originatingfromindustry,discoveredin2000isthoughttobethemostpotentgreenhousegasmeasuredtodate.Itiscalledtrifluoromethylsulphurpentafluoride(SF5CF3).TheGuardianaddsthatonegiantcontainershipcanemitalmostthesameamountofcancerandasthma-causingchemicalsas50millioncars.Furthermore,Confidentialdatafrommaritimeindustryinsidersbasedonenginesizeandthequalityoffueltypicallyusedbyshipsandcarsshowsthatjust15oftheworld'sbiggestshipsmaynowemitasmuchpollutionasalltheworld’s760mcars.Low-gradeshipbunkerfuel(orfueloil)hasupto2,000timesthesulphurcontentofdieselfuelusedinUSandEuropeanautomobiles.(Shippingisresponsiblefor3.5%to4%ofallclimatechangeemissionstheGuardianalsonotes.)NewScientist.comreports(December22,2003)onastudythatsuggestssootparticlesmaybeworsethancarbondioxideincontributingtoglobalwarming.Thesootparticlesalsooriginatefromindustry,andduringtheindustrialrevolution,wasquitecommon.Whileonthepositivesidethereislesssootthesedaysandperhapseasiertocontrolifneeded,alone,asoneofthescientistsofthestudycommented,Itdoesnotchangetheneedtoslowdownthegrowthrateofcarbondioxideandeventuallystabilizetheatmosphericamount.Photo:PeatBogWesternSiberia.Credit:ressaure/FlickrNewScientist.comandothershavealsoreported(August2005)thattheworld’slargestfrozenpeatbogismelting,andcouldunleashbillionsoftonnesofmethane,apotentgreenhousegas,intotheatmosphere.AnareathesizeofFranceandGermanycombinedhasbeenmeltinginthelast4years.Inaddition,WesternSiberiahaswarmedfasterthanalmostanywhereelseontheplanet,withanincreaseinaveragetemperaturesofsome3°Cinthelast40years.Ascientistexplainedafearthatifthebogsdryoutastheywarm,themethanewilloxidiseandescapeintotheairascarbondioxide.Butifthebogsremainwet,asisthecaseinwesternSiberiatoday,thenthemethanewillbereleasedstraightintotheatmosphere.Methaneis20timesaspotentagreenhousegasascarbondioxide.BacktotopWarminghappeningmorequicklythanpredictedWhilethosedenyingclimatechangearereducinginnumberandthereappearstobemoreefforttotryandtackletheproblem,climatescientistsarenowfearingthatclimatechangeishappeningfarfasterandishavingmuchlargerimpactsthantheyeverimagined.TheArcticplaysanincrediblyimportantroleinthebalanceoftheearth’sclimate.Rapidchangestoitcanhaveknock-oneffectstotherestoftheplanet.SomehavedescribedtheArcticasthecanaryinthecoalmine,referringtohowcanarybirdsusedtobetakendeepdowncoalmines.Iftheydied,itimpliedoxygenlevelswerelowandsignaledmineworkerstogetout.Satelliteobservationsshowthearcticseaicedecreasing,andprojectionsfortherestofthecenturypredictevenmoreshrinkage:Image:ThedecreaseofArcticseaice,minimumextentin1982and2007,andclimateprojections.UNEP/GRID-Arendal,2007Intermsofbiodiversity,theprospectofice-freesummersintheArcticOceanimpliesthelossofanentirebiome,theGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportnotes(p.57).Inaddition,Wholespeciesassemblagesareadaptedtolifeontopoforunderice—fromthealgaethatgrowontheundersideofmulti-yearice,formingupto25%oftheArcticOcean’sprimaryproduction,totheinvertebrates,birds,fishandmarinemammalsfurtherupthefoodchain.Theiconicpolarbearatthetopofthatfoodchainisthereforenottheonlyspeciesatriskeventhoughitmaygetmoremediaattention.Note,theiceintheArcticdoesthawandrefreezeeachyear,butitisthatpatternwhichhaschangedalotinrecentyearsasshownbythisgraph:TheextentoffloatingseaiceintheArcticOcean,asmeasuredatitsannualminimuminSeptember,showedasteadydeclinebetween1980and2009.Source:NationalSnowandIceDataCenter,graphcompiledbySecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(2010)GlobalBiodiversityOutlook3,May2010ItisalsoimportanttonotethatlossofseaicehasimplicationsonbiodiversitybeyondtheArctic,astheGlobalBiodiversityOutlookreportalsosummarizes:Brightwhiteicereflectssunlight.Whenitisreplacedbydarkerwater,theoceanandtheairheatmuchfaster,afeedbackthatacceleratesicemeltandheatingofsurfaceairinland,withresultantlossoftundra.Lessseaiceleadstochangesinseawatertemperatureandsalinity,leadingtochangesinprimaryproductivityandspeciescompositionofplanktonandfish,aswellaslarge-scalechangesinoceancirculation,affectingbiodiversitywellbeyondtheArctic.SecretariatoftheConventiononBiologicalDiversity(2010),GlobalBiodiversityOutlook3,May,2010,p.57SomescientistsfearchangesarehappeningtotheArcticmuchfasterthananticipated.ThepreviouslinkmentionsthatdespitecomputerclimatemodelspredictinglossofArcticseaiceby2050to2080,somescientistsfearitcouldbeassoonas2015.TheBBCnotessimilarconcernsbyscientists,withonequotedassayingtheseaiceissothinthatyouwouldhavetohaveanexceptionalsequenceofcoldwintersandcoldsummersinorderforittorebuild.AnotherBBCarticlereportsscientistsnowhaveunambiguousevidencethatthewarmingintheArcticisaccelerating.TheArcticreflectsmuchsunlightbackintospacehelpingkeepearthtemperate.Moremeltingwillresultinlessreflectionandevenmoreheatbeingabsorbedbytheearth.Achainreactioncouldresult,suchastheGreenlandicesheetmelting(whichwillactuallyincreasesealevels,whereasthemeltingofArcticicewillnotbecauseitisseaice),possiblyincreasingthemeltingofpermafrostinSiberia,whichwillreleasehugeamountsofmethane(asnotedabove),andrapidlychangeclimatepatterns,circulationpatternsandjetstreams,farquickerthanwhatmostoftheenvironmentcouldadapttoeasily.OldermembersoftheindigenousInuitpeopledescribehowweatherpatternshaveshiftedandchangedinrecentyears,whiletheyalsofacechallengestotheirwayoflifeintheformofincreasedcommercialinterestinthearcticregion.Thiscombinationofenvironmentalandeconomicfactorsputindigenouspopulationswaysatacrossroadsasthisdocumentaryfromexplore.orgshows:Arctic:ChangeattheTopoftheWorld,Explore.org,September2007FollowlinkfortranscriptandmoreinformationBacktotopFordecades,scientistsandenvironmentalistshavewarnedthatthewayweareusingEarth’sresourcesisnotsustainable.Alternativetechnologieshavebeencalledforrepeatedly,seeminglyupondeafears(or,cynically,uponthosewhodon’twanttomakesubstantialchangesasitchallengestheirbottomlineandtakesawayfromtheircurrentprofits).Inthepast,somecompaniesandindustrieshavepushedbackonenvironmentalprogramsinordertoincreaseprofitsortosurviveinatoughbusinessworld.Ithasperhapstakenaboutadecadeorso—andasevereenoughglobalfinancialcrisisthathashittheheartofthiswayofthinking—tochangethismentality(inwhichtime,moregreenhousegaseshavebeenemitted—inefficiently).Isthattoolateorwillitbeokay?Economiststalkofthepricesignalthatisfundamentaltocapitalism;theabilityforpricestoindicatewhenaresourceisbecomingscarcer.Atsuchatime,capitalismandthemarketswillmobilizeautomaticallytoaddressthisbylookingforwaystobringdowncosts.Asaresult,resourcesaresupposedlyinfinite.Forexample,ifenergycostsgoup,businesseswilllookforawaytominimizesuchcostsforthemselves,anditisinsuchatimethatalternativescomeaboutand/orexistingresourceslastlongerbecausetheyareusedmoreefficiently.Runningoutofresourcesshouldthereforebeaverted.However,ithaslongbeenarguedthatpricesdon’ttrulyreflectthefullcostofthings,soeitherthesignalisincorrect,orcomestoolate.Thepricesignalalsoimpliesthepoorestoftenpaytheheaviestcosts.Forexample,commerciallyover-fishingaregionmaymeanfishfromthatareabecomeshardertocatchandmoreexpensive,possiblyallowingthatecosystemtimetorecover(thoughthatisnotguaranteed,either).However,whilecommercialentitiescanexploitresourceselsewhere,localfishermenwillgooutofbusinessandthepoorerwilllikelygohungry(asalsodetailedonthissite’ssectiononbiodiversity).Thisthenhasanimpactonvariouslocalsocial,politicalandeconomicissues.Inadditiontothat,otherrelatedmeasurements,suchasGNParethereforeflawed,andevenrewardunproductiveorinefficientbehavior(e.g.Efficientlyproducingunhealthyfood—andtheunhealthyconsumerculturetogowithit—mayprofitthefoodindustryandaprivatehealthsectorthathastodealwithit,allofwhichrequiremoreuseofresources.Moreexamplesarediscussedonthissite’ssectiononconsumptionandconsumerism).Ourcontinuedinefficientpumpingofgreenhousegasesintotheenvironmentwithoutfactoringtheenormouscostastheclimatealreadybeginstochangeisperhapsanexamplewherepricesignalsmaycometoolate,oratatimewhenthereisalreadysignificantimpacttomanypeople.Resourcesthatcouldbeavailablemoreindefinitely,becomefinitebecauseofourinabilityorunwillingnesstochange.Thesubsequentpagesonthissitelookatthepoliticalissuesaroundtacklingclimatechange.Wherenext?RelatedarticlesClimateChangeandGlobalWarmingIntroductionUNFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeReactionstoClimateChangeNegotiationsandActionActiononclimatechangeischeaperthaninactionGlobalWarming,SpinandMediaClimateJusticeandEquityClimateChangeFlexibilityMechanismsCarbonSinks,ForestsandClimateChangeClimateChangeAffectsBiodiversityGlobalWarmingan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AnupShah,ClimateChangeandGlobalWarmingIntroduction,GlobalIssues,Updated:February01,2015

…toproducethis:AnupShah,ClimateChangeandGlobalWarmingIntroduction,GlobalIssues,Updated:February01,2015Alternatively,copy/pastethefollowingMLAcitationformatforthispage:Shah,Anup.“ClimateChangeandGlobalWarmingIntroduction.”GlobalIssues.01Feb.2015.Web.02Dec.2021..AuthorandPageInformationbyAnupShahCreated:Monday,July20,1998Lastupdated:Sunday,February01,2015BacktotopNavigationSharethisEmailFacebookTwitterWhatsAppRedditPage-relatednavigationPageoptionsPrintableVersionEmailPagetoaFriendRelatedissuesClimateChangeandGlobalWarming(32)UNConventionReactionsActioncheaperthaninactionGlobalWarmingMediaClimateJusticeMorearticles…EnvironmentalIssues(50)BiodiversityImportanceLossofBiodiversityConservationClimate&BiodiversityCoralReefsMorearticles…RelatedvideosSirCrispinTickell:Clean,GreenGrowthinChinaC.S.Kiang:China’sFutureMartinKhor:HistoricalResponsibilityforClimateChangeEmissionReductionClimateChangeImpactsonWomeninBoliviaClimateChangeImpactsonWomeninBolivia-LongerVersionClimateChangeImpactsonWomeninVietnamGlobaltemperatureanomalies,1880-2014GilFriend:SustainabilityAmoryLovins:NaturalCapitalismAnitaRoddick:CorporateSocialResponsibility?HermannScheer:BigEnergy’sLastStandRelatednewsWhatWillitTaketoTurnFarmersTowardClimate-ResilientSuperfoodMillet?FightingLossoftheGreaterMekong'sPrizedRosewoodForestsProfitingfromtheCarbonOffsetDistractionSiteNavigationPopularUpdatedResourcesMostpopularpagesPovertyFactsandStatsGlobalFinancialCrisisCausesofPovertyClimateChangeandGlobalWarmingEnvironmentalIssuesRacismWorldMilitarySpendingForeignAidPovertyAroundTheWorldWomen’sRightsRecentlyupdatedActioncheaperthaninactionClimateChangeIntroCOP20—LimaEbolainWestAfricaForeignAidConservationTobaccoGlobalWarmingMediaSurveillanceWorldMilitarySpendingUsefulresourcesVideosNewsHeadlinesBooksandReadingListLinksandResourcesFavoriteQuotesAdvertisementsDocumentrevisionhistoryDateReasonFebruary1,2015Updatedgraphsoncarbonemissionsandglobaltemperatureanomaliesas2014wasfoundtobethewarmestyearinthemodernrecord.Alsoupdatedananimationvideoshowingwarmingindifferentpartsoftheworldsince1880.November11,2013Addedsomegraphsandchartsshowingclimatechangehasnotstoppeddespiterecentslowdowntrendsinsurfacetemperatures,becauseoceantemperaturesandamoreappropriatetime-frameshowsotherwise.Alsoaddedsomenotesaboutrisingemissionsandthesuper-stormtyphoonHiayan.March5,2012Updatedgraphsontemperatureincreasesandtheclimateriskindex.Alsoaddedanewvideoshowinghowtemperaturehasincreasedaroundtheworldsince1880.Addedasmallnotethatoceanacidificationlookstobeworsein300millionyears.Alsoaddedagraphicabouttheeconomiccostsofinactionvsaction.May30,2011AddednotesonrichcountriesoutsourcingtheircarbonemissionstodevelopingnationsApril14,2011ShortnoteonhowincreasingtemperaturescanactuallymeanmoresnowfallplusashortfurthernoteonoceanwarmingJanuary31,20112010wasthewarmestyearonrecord(tiedwith2005).UpdatedgraphsanCO2emissionsalsoadded.Alsoaddedmoreinformationabouttherelationshipbetweenclimatechangeandcolderweatherinthenorthernhemisphere.December5,2010AddedsmallnoteaboutemissionsfromshippingAugust10,2010Addedadditionalnotesandmultimediaonoceanacidificationaswellasfurtherindicatorsofawarmingworldwithhumancauses.Alsoupdatedthewarmestperiodssectionandaskedwhyrecentweathersuchasextremecoldisstillasignofglobalwarming.June6,2010AddedasmallnoteabouthowclimatechangewillaffectbiodiversityinthearcticDecember26,2009AddedasmallnoteaboutclimateskepticsaswellasupdatingaclimateriskindexsummaryDecember5,2009AddedasmallnotaboutclimatechangeimpactsonwomenNovember18,2009AddedsmallnoteaboutrisingsealevelsandaboutthecolorsofcarbonandhowmitigationeffortsneedtoconsidervarioustypesofcarbonemissionsNovember4,2009Addedmoreimagesandavideoaboutclimatechangeemissions,aswellasanimageandvideoabouttherapidlychangingArcticSeptember20,2009Addedvideosshowinghowclimatechangeisalreadyaffectingpeople,agricultureandlivelihoodsaroundtheworldJuly6,2009AddedapartonincreasingoceanacidificationduetoincreasedcarbondioxideemissionsJanuary1,2009Updateddataregardinghowrichcountryemissionshaveriseninrecentyearsandaddednotesaboutclimatechangeoccuringfasterthananticipated,andwhichdevelopingnationshavebeenworstaffectedJanuary1,2008AddedsmallnoteabouthowrichcountryemissionshaveriseninrecentyearsFebruary8,2007NoteabouttheIPCC’sfourthreportbeingevenmorecertainthathumansaretoblameforglobalwarmingFebruary1,2007AnothersmallnoteabouthundredsofUSgovernmentscientistssayingtheyhaveperceivedorpersonallyexperiencedpressurefromtheBushadministrationtotonedowntheirreportsJune5,2006AddedsomemorenotesaboutaBBCdocumentaryinvestigatingfurthertheUSBushAdministration’sattempttosilenceitsownclimatescientists.January29,20062005wasthewarmestyearonrecord.Morealsoaddedaboutsilencingcritics—thistimeNASA’stopclimatescientistfeelingthepressurefromNASAandtheBushAdministrationOctober15,2005Minornoteaddedonmorerainanddryweatherpredictedforthefuture.August13,2005LargeexpanseofwesternSiberianpeatbogs(thelargestintheworld)ismelting,potentiallyreleasingmassiveamountsofpotentmethaneandorcarbondioxideintotheatmosphere.July2,2005Asmanyas1in6countriesaroundtheworldcouldbefacingfoodshortagesduetoclimatechangeSeptember30,2004ThedecisionbyRussiatoapprovetheKyotoclimatetreatyhelpskeeptheKyotoProtocolaliveSeptember25,2004TherecentdevastationfromsuccessivestrongAtlantichurricanesmaybeasignofthingstocome.Smallupdateadded.Someofthepagealsorestructured,intermsofsectionsandheadings.May2,2004UpdateaboutmediaportrayalofglobalwarmingandaboutskepticismFebruary11,2004MoreinformationontheeffectsofglobalwarmingAlternativesforbrokenlinksSometimeslinkstoothersitesmaybreakbeyondmycontrol.Wherepossible,alternativelinksareprovidedtobackupsorrepostedversionshere.Actuallink:StephenLeahy,'ArcticDefrostDumpingSnowOnU.S.AndEurope',InterPressService,January28,2011http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=54278Alternative:https://www.globalissues.org/news/2011/01/28/8329Actuallink:http://www.skepticalscience.com/The-Earth-continues-to-build-up-heat.htmlAlternatives:Slightlyolderdata,butusefulcommentaryfromJohnBruno,‘It’snotclimatechange,it’soceanchange!’,ClimateShifts,July12,2010http://www.climateshifts.org/?p=5585Alsousefuldiscussionalbeitonolderdata.http://theseamonster.net/2011/04/its-not-climate-change-its-ocean-change/SkepticalSciencealsoaddressesthemyththatoceancoolingstoppedin2003http://www.skepticalscience.com/cooling-oceans-intermediate.htmActuallink:JulioGodoy,'ClimateChange:350PPMTooAmbitious,SayLawmakers',InterPressService,October26,2009http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=49010Alternatives:https://www.globalissues.org/news/2009/10/26/3267TheJournal,Nature,alsonotesthisconcernhttp://www.nature.com/climate/2009/0911/full/climate.2009.106.htmlActuallink:'NowheretoHide',EarthAction,September1998http://www.earthaction.org/en/archive/99-01-cich/nowhere.htmlAlternative:CNetnotesareportin2005offerssimilarpredictionshttp://news.com.com/Global+warming+to+bring+heavier+rains%2C+snow/2100-11395_3-5895784.html?part=rss&tag=5895784&subj=newsActuallink:'ExtremeWeatherEventsMightIncrease',WorldMeteorologicalOrganisation,July2,2003[LinkistoaMSWordformatteddocument]http://www.wmo.ch/web/Press/Press695.docAlternative:http://www.wmo.ch/web/Press/Press.html#prActuallink:'Reapingthewhirlwind;Extremeweatherpromptsunprecedentedglobalwarmingalert',TheIndependent,July3,2003http://news.independent.co.uk/world/environment/story.jsp?story=421166Alternative:http://www.truthout.org/docs_03/070403J.shtmlActuallink:'http://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6072/1058',Science,March2,2012,Vol.335no.6072pp.1058-1063,DOI:10.1126/science.1208277http://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6072/1058Alternatives:http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1208277http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2012/03/ocean-acidification-could-become-worst-in-at-least-300-million-years.arshttp://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=1334Actuallink:http://www.sciencentral.com/video/2009/01/08/food-and-global-warming/Alternative:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvVonWp1aGcActuallink:AtharParvaiz,'SouthAsia:DisunityHoversoveraRegionBattlingClimateChange',InterPressService,September20,2009http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=48513Alternative:https://www.globalissues.org/news/2009/09/20/2863Actuallink:http://www.unfpa.org/webdav/site/global/shared/swp/englishswop09.pdfAlternative:http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2009/en/Actuallink:'Nationalgreenhousegasinventorydatafortheperiod1990–2006',UNFCCC,November17,2008(DocumentFCCC/SBI/2008/12)http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2008/sbi/eng/12.pdfAlternative:http://www.copenhagenclimatecouncil.com/get-informed/news/unfccc-ghg-emissions-in-industrialized-countries-on-the-rise-since-2000.htmlActuallink:Weber,Peters,GuanandHubacek,'ThecontributionofChineseexportstoclimatechange',EnergyPolicy,July21,2008http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.06.009Alternative:http://news.cnet.com/8301-11128_3-10001150-54.htmlActuallink:CareyL.Biron,'CarbonDioxideEmissionsHitRecordHighin2012',InterPressService,June11,2013http://www.ipsnews.net/2013/06/carbon-dioxide-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2012Alternative:https://www.globalissues.org/news/2013/06/11/16777Actuallink:GeorgeMonbiot,'Apocalypsenow',Guardian,July29,1999http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,279969,00.htmlAlternative:http://www.monbiot.com/archives/1999/07/29/meltdown/Actuallink:AndrewC.Revkin,'ClimateExpertSaysNASATriedtoSilenceHim',NewYorkTimes,January29,2006http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/29/science/earth/29climate.html?pagewanted=allAlternative:ExternalLink:TheGuardian/ObserverGroupalsoreportedthisintheUKhttp://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,1697616,00.htmlActuallink:'Ships'sulphurfuelsclimatechange',BBC,August18,1999http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/422856.stmAlternative:TheactualreportfromNature.Requiredregistration.http://www.nature.com/server-java/Propub/nature/400743A0.abs_framesetActuallink:JohnVidal,'Healthrisksofshippingpollutionhavebeen‘underestimated’',TheGuardian,April9,2009http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/09/shipping-pollutionAlternative:http://www.greencarreports.com/blog/1020063_pollution-perspective-one-giant-cargo-ship-emits-as-much-as-50-million-ca