Are the Effects of Global Warming Really that Bad? - NRDC

Higher temperatures are worsening many types of disasters, including storms, heat waves, floods, and droughts. A warmer climate creates an ... Jumptonavigation TheMissouriRiverencroachesonhomesinSiouxCity,Iowa,duringa2011flood StocktrekImages/MediaBakery EightdegreesFahrenheit.Itmaynotsoundlikemuch—perhapsthedifferencebetweenwearingasweaterandnotwearingoneonanearly-springday.Butfortheworldinwhichwelive,whichclimateexpertsprojectwillbeatleast eightdegreeswarmerby2100 shouldglobalemissionscontinueontheircurrentpath,thissmallrisewillhavegraveconsequences,onesthatarealreadybecomingapparent,foreveryecosystemandlivingthing—includingus.AccordingtotheNationalClimateAssessment,humaninfluencesarethenumberonecauseofglobalwarming,especiallythecarbonpollutionwecausebyburningfossilfuelsandthepollution-capturingwepreventbydestroyingforests.Thecarbondioxide,methane,soot,andotherpollutantswereleaseintotheatmosphereactlikeablanket,trappingthesun'sheatandcausingtheplanettowarm.Evidenceshowsthat2000to2009washotterthananyotherdecadeinatleastthepast 1,300years.Thiswarmingisalteringtheearth'sclimatesystem,includingitsland,atmosphere,oceans,andice,infar-reachingways.MorefrequentandsevereweatherHighertemperaturesareworseningmanytypesofdisasters,includingstorms,heatwaves,floods,anddroughts.Awarmerclimatecreatesanatmospherethatcancollect,retain,anddropmorewater,changingweatherpatternsinsuchawaythatwetareasbecomewetteranddryareasdrier."Extremeweathereventsarecostingmoreandmore,"saysAliyaHaq,deputydirectorofNRDC'sCleanPowerPlaninitiative."Thenumberofbillion-dollarweatherdisastersisexpectedtorise."AccordingtotheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration,in2015therewere10weatherandclimatedisastereventsintheUnitedStates—includingseverestorms,floods,drought,andwildfires—thatcausedatleast $1billioninlosses.Forcontext,eachyearfrom1980to2015averaged$5.2billionindisasters(adjustedforinflation).Ifyouzeroinontheyearsbetween2011and2015,youseeanannualaveragecostof$10.8billion.Theincreasingnumberofdroughts,intensestorms,andfloodswe'reseeingasourwarmingatmosphereholds—andthendumps—moremoistureposesriskstopublichealthandsafety,too.Prolongeddryspellsmeanmorethanjustscorchedlawns.Droughtconditionsjeopardizeaccesstocleandrinkingwater,fuelout-of-controlwildfires,andresultinduststorms,extremeheatevents,andflashfloodingintheStates.Elsewherearoundtheworld,lackofwaterisaleadingcauseofdeathandseriousdisease.Attheoppositeendofthespectrum,heavierrainscausestreams,rivers,andlakestooverflow,whichdamageslifeandproperty,contaminatesdrinkingwater,createshazardous-materialspills,andpromotesmoldinfestationandunhealthyair.Awarmer,wetterworldisalsoaboonforfood-borneandwaterborneillnessesanddisease-carryinginsectssuchasmosquitoes,fleas,andticks.HigherdeathratesToday'sscientistspointtoclimatechangeas"the biggestglobalhealththreat ofthe21stcentury."It'sathreatthatimpactsallofus—especiallychildren,theelderly,low-incomecommunities,andminorities—andinavarietyof directandindirectways.Astemperaturesspike,sodoestheincidenceofillness,emergencyroomvisits,anddeath."Therearemorehotdaysinplaceswherepeoplearen'tusedtoit,"Haqsays."Theydon'thaveair-conditioningorcan'taffordit.Oneortwodaysisn'tabigdeal.Butfourdaysstraightwheretemperaturesdon'tgodown,evenatnight,leadstoseverehealthconsequences."IntheUnitedStates, hundredsofheat-related deathsoccureachyearduetodirectimpactsandtheindirecteffectsofheat-exacerbated,life-threateningillnesses,suchasheatexhaustion,heatstroke,andcardiovascularandkidneydiseases.Indeed,extremeheat killsmoreAmericans eachyear,onaverage,thanhurricanes,tornadoes,floods,andlightningcombined. DirtierairRisingtemperaturesalsoworsenairpollutionbyincreasinggroundlevelozone,whichiscreatedwhenpollutionfromcars,factories,andothersourcesreacttosunlightandheat.Ground-levelozoneisthemaincomponentofsmog,andthehotterthingsget,themoreofitwehave.Dirtierairislinkedtohigherhospitaladmissionratesandhigherdeathratesforasthmatics.Itworsensthehealthofpeoplesufferingfromcardiacorpulmonarydisease.Andwarmertemperaturesalsosignificantlyincreaseairbornepollen,whichisbadnewsforthosewhosufferfromhayfeverandotherallergies.HigherwildlifeextinctionratesAshumans,wefaceahostofchallenges,butwe'recertainlynottheonlyonescatchingheat.Aslandandseaundergorapidchanges,theanimalsthatinhabitthemaredoomedtodisappeariftheydon'tadaptquicklyenough.Somewillmakeit,andsomewon't.Accordingtothe IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange's 2014assessment,manyland,freshwater,andoceanspeciesareshiftingtheirgeographicrangestocoolerclimesorhigheraltitudes,inanattempttoescapewarming.They'rechangingseasonalbehaviorsandtraditionalmigrationpatterns,too.Andyetmanystillface"increasedextinctionriskduetoclimatechange."Indeed,a 2015study showedthatvertebratespecies—animalswithbackbones,likefish,birds,mammals,amphibians,andreptiles—aredisappearing114timesfasterthantheyshouldbe,aphenomenonthathasbeenlinkedtoclimatechange,pollution,anddeforestation.MoreacidicoceansTheearth'smarineecosystemsareunderpressureasaresultofclimatechange.Oceansarebecomingmoreacidic,dueinlargeparttotheirabsorptionofsomeofourexcessemissions.Asthisacidificationaccelerates,itposesaseriousthreattounderwaterlife,particularlycreatureswithcalciumcarbonateshellsorskeletons,includingmollusks,crabs,andcorals.Thiscanhaveahugeimpacton shellfisheries.Indeed,asof2015,acidificationisbelievedtohavecostthePacificNorthwestoysterindustrynearly$110million.Coastalcommunitiesin15statesthatdependonthe$1billionnationwideannualharvestofoysters,clams,andothershelledmollusksfacesimilarlong-termeconomicrisks.HighersealevelsThepolarregionsareparticularlyvulnerabletoawarmingatmosphere.AveragetemperaturesintheArcticarerisingtwiceasfastastheyareelsewhereonearth,andtheworld'sicesheetsaremeltingfast.Thisnotonlyhasgraveconsequencesfortheregion'speople,wildlife,andplants;itsmostseriousimpactmaybeonrisingsealevels.By2100,it'sestimatedouroceanswillbe onetofourfeet higher,threateningcoastalsystemsandlow-lyingareas,includingentireislandnationsandtheworld'slargestcities,includingNewYork,LosAngeles,andMiamiaswellasMumbai,Sydney,andRiodeJaneiro.There'snoquestion:Climatechangepromisesafrighteningfuture,andit'stoolatetoturnbacktheclock.We'vealreadytakencareofthatbypumpingacentury'sworthofpollutionintotheairnearlyunchecked."Evenifwestoppedallcarbondioxideemissionstomorrow,we'dstillseesomeeffects,"Haqsays.That,ofcourse,isthebadnews.Butthere'salsogoodnews.By aggressivelyreducingourglobalemissions now,"wecanavoidalotofthesevereconsequencesthatclimatechangewouldotherwisebring,"saysHaq. 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